Jiri Lehecka #12Czechia22 – 1James Duckworth #79Australia1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Lehecka's superior ranking, stronger recent form against higher-quality opposition, and better grass-court win rate give him a clear edge, though Duckworth's same-venue match rhythm narrows the gap.

• Lehecka ranking #12 vs Duckworth #79
• Lehecka 2025 grass record 7-3, Duckworth 5-6
• Lehecka last 5 matches: 3-2 vs top-77 opponents; Duckworth last 5: 2-3 vs lower-ranked opponents
• Lehecka first-set win conversion 85%, Duckworth 85%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Recent set 1 averages for both players exceed 9.5 games, and their high first-set win rates suggest tight opening sets, favoring the over.

• Lehecka last 5 set 1 avg 9.6 games
• Duckworth last 5 set 1 avg 10.2 games
• Both have strong first-set win conversion, indicating competitive openers

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.70

The read

Duckworth's recent losses have been competitive, and his grass-court rhythm should keep the match within a 3.5-game margin, even if Lehecka wins.

• Lehecka's last 5 wins avg margin 4.2 games, but losses tight
• Duckworth's last 5 losses avg margin 3.6 games
• Duckworth's grass-court experience and current form keep matches close

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Both players' recent matches average above 21.5 games, and their tiebreak tendencies suggest close sets, supporting a total games over in a Bo3 format.

• Lehecka last 5 matches avg 21.4 total games
• Duckworth last 5 matches avg 22.6 total games
• Both players have tiebreak history (Lehecka 52%, Duckworth 54% career)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Set 2 averages hover near 9.5, and Duckworth's pattern of tight second sets pushes the expected total over the line.

• Lehecka last 5 set 2 avg 9.4 games
• Duckworth last 5 set 2 avg 10.0 games
• Duckworth's recent matches often extend set 2 (e.g., 7-5, 7-6)

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.40

The read

Both players have been involved in multiple three-set matches recently, and their comparable deciding-set records increase the likelihood of a decider.

• Lehecka last 5 matches: 2 three-setters
• Duckworth last 5 matches: 3 three-setters
• Both have deciding-set win rates near 55%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players frequently engage in tiebreaks, with recent matches showing a high occurrence, making a tiebreak in this match probable.

• Lehecka tiebreak win rate 52%, Duckworth 54%
• Lehecka played tiebreaks in 3 of last 5 matches
• Duckworth played tiebreaks in 2 of last 5 matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Duckworth's high ace rate and the grass surface's tendency to boost aces make over 12.5 total aces likely, with Lehecka contributing a steady share.

• Lehecka ace rate 7.4%, Duckworth 10.2%
• Duckworth career aces 6090 in 908 matches (~6.7 per match)
• Grass surface amplifies ace counts

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' double fault rates suggest a combined total near 5.5, and grass-court serving aggression could push it over, though confidence is low.

• Lehecka double fault rate 3.1%, Duckworth 3.4%
• Combined average double faults per match ~5.5 based on career rates
• Grass can lead to more double faults due to aggressive serving