Jesper De Jong #8322 – 1Federico Bondioli #341Italy1

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22

The read

De Jong's superior ranking, recent high-level clay wins, and overall career surface edge make him a strong favorite.

• De Jong is ranked 83 vs Bondioli's 341, a massive 258-place gap.
• De Jong has a 15-10 clay record in 2026, including wins over top-50 players like Khachanov (rank 15) and Wawrinka (rank 110) at Roland Garros.
• Bondioli's best win in the last 15 matches was against Emilio Nava (rank 87), but he has losses to players ranked 287, 397, and 388.
• De Jong's career clay win percentage is 60.9% vs Bondioli's 53.6%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match data shows both players involved in matches averaging over 22 games, supporting a total above 20.5.

• De Jong's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games.
• Bondioli's last 5 matches averaged 22.4 total games.
• Both players have a high break-point conversion rate (De Jong 42.2%, Bondioli 44%), leading to more games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

De Jong's consistent margin of victory against weaker players supports covering a -3.5 game handicap.

• De Jong's average game differential in wins over lower-ranked opponents (rank >200) is +5.2 games.
• Bondioli's average game differential in losses to higher-ranked opponents (rank <100) is -4.8 games.
• De Jong's return points won percentage (41%) is higher than Bondioli's (40%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While De Jong is favored, Bondioli's ability to push sets suggests the second set could still exceed 9.5 games.

• De Jong's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games.
• Bondioli's last 5 second sets averaged 10.0 games.
• Bondioli's second-set loss rate is 60%, but he often forces close sets when losing.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30

The read

De Jong's strong first-set record and Bondioli's tendency to start slowly give the higher-ranked player a clear edge in set 1.

• De Jong has won the first set in 11 of his last 15 matches (73%).
• Bondioli has lost the first set in 8 of his last 15 matches (53%).
• De Jong's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating he capitalizes on early leads.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

While combined ace rates suggest over 6.5, the Bo3 format and clay surface may suppress ace counts, making this a marginal call.

• De Jong averages 6.5 aces per match (ace rate 6.5%).
• Bondioli averages 4.3 aces per match (ace rate 4.3%).
• Combined, their average aces per match is 10.8, but Bo3 matches often see fewer aces.