Tristan Boyer vs Matteo Martineau: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Boyer's stronger recent clay form and higher surface win percentage give him a clear edge, supported by his dominant performance in the previous round of this tournament.
- Boyer has a 9-4 clay record in 2026, including a dominant 6-3 6-2 win in the previous round of this Lyon Challenger.
- Martineau is 10-8 on clay in 2026 but has lost 3 of his last 5 matches on the surface, including a loss to #806 Sander Jong.
- Boyer's recent form (last 5 matches) shows 3 wins, all on clay, with a 12-5 games advantage in his latest match.
- Career clay win percentage: Boyer 83/164 (50.6%) vs Martineau 136/330 (41.2%), giving Boyer a surface-fit edge.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTristan BoyerEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths for both players trend toward longer contests, and their similar break-point stats indicate a close match likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- Boyer's last 5 matches have averaged 21.6 total games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Martineau's last 5 matches have averaged 24.4 total games, with 4 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Both players have high break-point conversion rates (Boyer 40.9%, Martineau 40.4%), suggesting competitive games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first-set data for both players shows a trend toward longer sets, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Boyer's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Martineau's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 64%, leading to extended games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Consistent second-set game counts above 9.5 in recent matches for both players suggest another over in set 2.
- Boyer's last 5 second sets have averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Martineau's last 5 second sets have averaged 10.0 games, with 4 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have similar second-serve win percentages (Boyer 51.1%, Martineau 48.3%), leading to competitive sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Boyer's tendency to start strong, combined with Martineau's recent first-set struggles, makes Boyer the likely set 1 winner.
- Boyer has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, including his last two clay matches.
- Martineau has lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including both of his last two clay matches.
- Boyer's first-set win conversion rate is 83% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTristan BoyerEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martineau's high ace rate and recent ace counts make over 7.5 total aces likely, even if Boyer contributes fewer.
- Martineau has a career ace rate of 7.7%, significantly higher than Boyer's 4.3%.
- In his last 5 matches, Martineau has averaged 5.2 aces per match, with 3 of 5 going over 7.5.
- Boyer's ace rate is lower, but his recent matches have seen opponents hit aces, contributing to totals over 7.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Martineau's higher double-fault tendency, combined with Boyer's occasional lapses, makes over 5.5 total double faults probable.
- Martineau has a career double-fault rate of 4.5%, higher than Boyer's 3.4%.
- In his last 5 matches, Martineau has averaged 3.8 double faults per match, with 3 of 5 going over 5.5 total.
- Boyer's double-fault rate is lower, but his recent matches have seen combined totals over 5.5 in 3 of 5.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The combination of both players' tiebreak history and similar serve stats suggests a tiebreak is likely in this match.
- Boyer has a career tiebreak win percentage of 52%, and 2 of his last 5 matches have featured a tiebreak.
- Martineau has a career tiebreak win percentage of 52%, and 3 of his last 5 matches have featured a tiebreak.
- Both players have similar first-serve win percentages (around 64%), leading to tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Tristan Boyer #198United States2Matteo Martineau #335France0

Player Profiles

Tristan Boyer

Matteo Martineau

Quick Take

Context

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Tristan Boyer 2-1

Tristan Boyer

Tristan Boyer

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Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Tristan Boyer

Matteo Martineau