ATP 's-HertogenboschFinished

Predictions graded

Thijs Boogaard #7852Yibing Wu #92China1

Sets 6-3 · 2-6 · 6-4Wed 10 Jun 2026, 09:15 Predictions gradedFirst RoundGrass

Predictions2–433%

Edges1–517%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageYibing Wu · 693 places

Thijs Boogaard

Dutch 17-year-old right-hander. Wikipedia lists him at a career-high No. 785 on May 25, 2026. He enters Libema Open on a home wildcard.

Current ranking: #785
Peak ranking: #785 · 2026
Current age: 17
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Yibing Wu

China

Chinese right-hander and former ATP title winner. He reached a career-high No. 54 on May 29, 2023. His 2026 season brought him back inside the Top 100 after a Sarasota Challenger title and a first French Open main-draw win.

Current ranking: #92
Peak ranking: #54 · 2023
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Jun 2026, 12:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Yibing Wu, ranked No. 92, is a heavy favorite over wildcard Thijs Boogaard (No. 785) in 's-Hertogenbosch.

Wu's strong form, elite first-set conversion, and Boogaard's struggles against low-ranked opponents point to a straight-set win. Best bets: Wu moneyline, Wu 2-0, and under 21.5 total games.

Context

Wu's last 10 completed matches: 8 wins, 2 losses, with wins over Giron (No. 84), Shevchenko (No. 88), and Nishikori.
- He captured the Sarasota Challenger title in April 2026, winning five matches including a final over Dostanic.
- His only recent losses came against top-50 players Cobolli (No. 14) and Quinn (No. 50), not lower-ranked opponents.
- Wu's career win rate is 64.5%, and he converts first sets at 91%, indicating he rarely falters against weaker players.
Boogaard lost 6-1 6-3 to No. 617 Peter Makk in April 2026, winning only 4 games.
- He lost to No. 776 Amit Vales in straight sets (7-6, 6-4) and to unranked Aaron Funk in three sets.
- In his last 15 matches, Boogaard has 7 losses, with 6 of those coming in straight sets, often by lopsided scores.
- His career win rate is 47.1%, and he has never beaten a top-100 player.
Boogaard's career grass record is 1 win, 1 loss, with the win coming in 2025 and the loss in 2026.
- His 2026 grass loss was in straight sets, and he has no other grass results this season.
- Wu has only 1 career grass win (2023) but has far more overall match experience (259 career matches vs. Boogaard's 34).
- Grass typically rewards strong serving and aggressive play, areas where Wu's stats (68.9% first-serve points won) are superior.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30
The read
The massive ranking and experience gap, combined with Wu's strong recent form against top-100 opponents and Boogaard's struggles against low-ranked players, makes Wu a heavy favorite.
- Wu is ranked #92 vs Boogaard #785, a massive 693-place gap.
- Wu has a 64.5% career win rate and 91% first-set win conversion; Boogaard is at 47.1% and 68%.
- Wu's recent form includes a French Open main-draw win over #84 Giron and a Challenger title; Boogaard's last 5 matches are against opponents ranked outside the top 600.
- Boogaard has only 1 career grass win (2025) and lost his only 2026 grass match; Wu has limited grass data but far superior hard-court metrics that translate better.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostYibing WuEstimated chance85%

Games1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Wu's ability to win efficiently and Boogaard's vulnerability to one-sided sets make a relatively quick match likely, keeping total games under 21.5.
- Boogaard's last 5 losses averaged 16.8 total games; Wu's last 5 wins averaged 19.6 total games.
- Wu's straight-set wins in recent Challengers (e.g., 6-3 6-4, 6-1 7-5) often stay under 21.5 games.
- Boogaard has been bageled or breadsticked in 3 of his last 15 matches, indicating potential for lopsided sets.
- Grass tends to produce shorter points, but the skill gap here should prevent extended rallies.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Wu's serving advantage and Boogaard's poor returning on a fast surface make a quick first set likely, with a total under 9.5 games.
- Wu's last 5 first-set scores: 6-4, 7-5, 4-6, 7-6, 6-3 (average 9.6 games, but 3 of 5 under 9.5).
- Boogaard's last 5 first-set scores: 2-6, 6-3, 7-5, 1-6, 6-7 (average 9.2 games, with 3 under 9.5).
- Wu's strong serve (68.9% first-serve points won) and Boogaard's weak return (40% return points won) should lead to quick holds.
- Grass courts often produce shorter sets due to fewer long rallies.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Wu's elite first-set performance and Boogaard's tendency to start slowly against low-level opposition point to a comfortable opening set for the favorite.
- Wu converts first sets at a 91% career rate; Boogaard is at 68%.
- Wu's last 5 matches: won first set in 4 of 5, including against #14 Cobolli and #84 Giron.
- Boogaard lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, all against sub-600 opponents.
- Wu's return points won (39%) and break point conversion (42%) are superior to Boogaard's (40%/45% but against much weaker competition).
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostYibing WuEstimated chance80%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Wu's dominance in straight-set victories and Boogaard's inability to push matches to a third set against superior opponents support a 2-0 outcome.
- Wu has won 8 of his last 10 completed matches in straight sets.
- Boogaard has lost 6 of his last 10 matches in straight sets, including to players ranked outside the top 600.
- Wu's first-set win rate (91%) and deciding-set win rate (62%) suggest he closes matches without needing a third.
- Boogaard's comeback rate is only 20%, and he has never beaten a top-100 player.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostYibing Wu 2-0Estimated chance70%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Wu's ability to win sets comfortably and Boogaard's tendency to lose lopsided sets make a tiebreak unlikely in this matchup.
- Wu's tiebreak win rate is 59%, but he has played only 2 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Boogaard's tiebreak win rate is 33%, and he has played 2 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches.
- Wu's first-set dominance (91% conversion) often prevents close sets.
- Boogaard has lost sets 6-1, 6-2, or 6-3 in 5 of his last 10 matches, indicating few tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Grass-court conditions and both players' decent first-serve stats make over 8.5 total aces a reasonable expectation, though Boogaard's low ace count in recent matches adds uncertainty.
- Wu averages 5.5 aces per match (career ace rate 5.5%); Boogaard averages 4.2% but has a lower total due to fewer matches.
- On grass, ace rates typically increase; Wu's first-serve points won (68.9%) suggests he can hit aces.
- Boogaard's 63% first-serve percentage and 70.8% win rate on first serve indicate some ace potential.
- Combined, their ace rates project to around 8-10 aces in a straight-set match.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively low double-fault rates, and a likely two-set match should keep the total under 5.5, though grass-court variability introduces some risk.
- Wu's double-fault rate is 3.1%; Boogaard's is 3.9%.
- In recent matches, Wu has averaged 2-3 double faults per match; Boogaard around 2-4.
- Grass may slightly increase double faults due to lower bounce, but both players have manageable rates.
- A straight-set match limits total service games, keeping double faults lower.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance55%

Thijs Boogaard

8W 7L

2-6 6-1 7-5—Aaron Funk

6-3 5-7 6-2—Ali Habib

7-5 6-1—Hitesh Chauhan

6-1 6-3#617Peter Makk

7-6(3) 6-4#776Amit Vales

6-4 6-0#324Michael Geerts

6-2 6-1#851Miles Jones

3-6 6-3 6-1#491Radu Mihai Papoe

3-6 7-5 10-7#679Jan Kumstat

6-0 6-1—Rhys Lawlor

3-6 7-5 6-2#382Anton Matusevich

6-1 6-2#682Yaroslav Demin

6-3 6-2#535Filip Jeff Planinsek

6-3 6-2—Noel Larwig

6-3 6-4#113Stan Wawrinka

Yibing Wu

9W 6L

6-4 6-4 6-4#14Flavio Cobolli

7-5 6-2 6-4#84Marcos Giron

6-4 5-7 6-4#50Ethan Quinn

7-6(8) 7-5#88Alexander Shevchenko

6-3 6-4#127Alexandre Muller

6-0 7-6(5)#107Titouan Droguet

6-1 7-5#394Manas Manoj Dhamne

6-1 4-6 6-3#261Stefan Dostanic

6-3 7-5#229Darwin Blanch

6-4 7-6(4)#416Daniel Dutra Da Silva

6-3 3-6 6-1#703Kei Nishikori

6-1 6-4#524Reda Bennani

7-6(6) 6-2#152Alex Bolt

6-2 7-6(3)#49Gabriel Diallo

7-6(4) 7-5#223Andres Andrade

Thijs Boogaard

Yibing Wu

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yibing Wu

Yibing Wu

Yibing Wu 2-0

Under 2.5

Under 21.5

Under 9.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 2 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Thijs Boogaard

Yibing Wu