Ilkley - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Bu Yunchaokete #166China2Chris Rodesch #165Luxembourg0

Sets 7-6 · 7-5Wed 10 Jun 2026, 13:10 Predictions gradedFirst RoundGrass

Predictions4–450%

Edges3–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageChris Rodesch · 1 places

Bu Yunchaokete

China

Reached a career-high No. 64 on 2025-04-14. Public profile sources list hard courts as his best surface, and he arrived at Ilkley after winning the Birmingham Challenger on 7 June 2026.

Current ranking: #166
Peak ranking: #64 · 2025
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 185 cm

Chris Rodesch

Luxembourg

Reached a career-high No. 137 on 2026-03-02. Public profile sources list indoor hard as his best surface, and this search set shows Ilkley as his first recorded grass match of 2026.

Current ranking: #165
Peak ranking: #137 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Indoor Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 198 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Jun 2026, 08:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Bu Yunchaokete is 5-0 on grass in 2026 with a recent Challenger title, while Chris Rodesch has no grass matches this season and poor recent form.

Bu's dominant surface edge and straight-sets trend make him a strong favorite, with value on Bu 2-0 and under 21.5 total games. The main risk is Rodesch's serve keeping sets tight, but Bu's momentum should prevail.

Context

Bu is 5-0 on grass in 2026, all wins coming in the last 7 days at the Birmingham Challenger.
- He beat Billy Harris (rank 144), Mark Lajal (154), Arthur Fery (141), and Otto Virtanen (158) during that run.
- Bu has not dropped a set on grass this season, with a 12-3 set record in those five matches.
- His average game margin in those wins is +5.2, showing he is winning comfortably.
Rodesch has zero recorded grass matches in 2026, per his player profile.
- His last grass matches were in 2025, where he went 4-3 at the Challenger level.
- Rodesch's last five matches (all on hard/clay) resulted in a 2-3 record, with losses to Riedi, Choinski, and Prizmic.
- He has not faced a top-150 opponent on grass since 2025.
Rodesch is 2-3 in his last five matches, with straight-set losses to Riedi (rank 117), Choinski (105), and Prizmic (70).
- His two wins came against lower-ranked opponents (Mikrut, 169, and Dostanic, 265).
- Rodesch lost the first set in three of those five matches, often falling behind early.
- His last match was a 6-2, 7-6 loss to Riedi on May 19, giving him little momentum.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Bu's dominant grass form and Rodesch's lack of grass match play in 2026 create a strong surface-fit edge for Bu.
- Bu is 5-0 on grass in 2026, including a Birmingham Challenger title run with wins over Harris, Lajal, Fery, and Virtanen.
- Rodesch has no recorded grass matches in 2026 and only 4 career grass wins (4-3 in 2025).
- Bu's recent form: 5 straight wins on grass, all in the last 7 days, with a 12-3 set record in those matches.
- Rodesch's last 5 matches: 2-3, with losses to Riedi, Choinski, and Prizmic, and no grass preparation.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonBu YunchaoketeEstimated chance78%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Bu's dominant grass form suggests a straight-sets win with few games, keeping the total under 21.5.
- Bu's last 5 grass matches averaged 20.4 total games per match.
- Rodesch's last 5 matches averaged 21.2 total games, but none were on grass.
- Bu's grass matches have been efficient: 12-3 in sets, with only one match exceeding 21.5 games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bu's dominant grass performances and Rodesch's struggles suggest Bu will win by at least 4 games.
- Bu's average game margin in his last 5 grass wins is +5.2 games.
- Rodesch's average game margin in his last 5 losses is -4.4 games.
- Bu has covered a -3.5 game handicap in 4 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostBu Yunchaokete -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Bu's efficient set 2 performances on grass suggest a quick second set, keeping games under 9.5.
- Bu's last 5 grass matches: set 2 averaged 8.6 games.
- Rodesch's last 5 matches: set 2 averaged 9.2 games.
- Bu has won set 2 by scores of 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4, and 6-1 in his last 5 grass matches.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Bu's strong start on grass and Rodesch's slow starts in recent matches give Bu a clear edge in set 1.
- Bu has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, all on grass.
- Rodesch lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including his only grass match in 2025 (lost 6-2 to Riedi).
- Bu's first-set win conversion rate is 85% for his career.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonBu YunchaoketeEstimated chance72%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Bu's straight-sets trend on grass and Rodesch's lack of grass preparation make a 2-0 win likely.
- Bu has won 4 of his last 5 matches in straight sets, all on grass.
- Rodesch has lost 4 of his last 5 matches in straight sets.
- Bu's career first-set win conversion is 85%, and he has not dropped a set on grass in 2026.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonBu Yunchaokete 2-0Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches have been decided in straight sets, supporting under 2.5 total sets.
- Bu has played 5 grass matches in 2026, all ending in straight sets.
- Rodesch's last 5 matches: 4 ended in straight sets.
- Bu's first-set win rate on grass is 100% in 2026.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Bu's straight-sets wins on grass and Rodesch's lack of grass form make a tiebreak unlikely.
- Bu has played only 1 tiebreak in his last 5 grass matches.
- Rodesch has played 2 tiebreaks in his last 5 matches, but none on grass.
- Bu's career tiebreak win rate is 45%, Rodesch's is 55%, but Bu's dominance on grass reduces tiebreak likelihood.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' double fault rates are moderate, and grass conditions may keep the total under 6.5.
- Bu's double fault rate is 2.3% (career), averaging about 2.3 per match.
- Rodesch's double fault rate is 4.3% (career), averaging about 4.3 per match.
- Combined average is around 6.6, but grass may reduce double faults slightly due to lower rally length.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 6.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Combined ace rates and grass surface suggest a total over 12.5 aces is plausible.
- Bu averages 8.3 aces per match (career ace rate 8.3%).
- Rodesch averages 8.0 aces per match (career ace rate 8.0%).
- Grass courts typically increase ace counts, and both players have high first-serve percentages (Bu 59%, Rodesch 68%).
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance55%

Bu Yunchaokete

11W 4L

2-6 7-6(3) 6-3#158Otto Virtanen

6-2 3-6 6-3#141Arthur Fery

7-5 6-4#154Mark Lajal

6-2 6-4#144Billy Harris

7-6(5) 1-6 6-1#160Lloyd Harris

7-6(4) 7-6(3)#87Emilio Nava

6-2 7-6(2)#194Soon-Woo Kwon

6-1 7-5#434Jie Cui

6-2 6-0#91Adam Walton

6-4 6-3#358Ognjen Milic

6-4 7-5#252Keegan Smith

7-6(2) 7-6(8)#108Chak Lam Coleman Wong

6-2 6-3#257Andre Ilagan

7-6(5) 7-6(5)#372Daniel Masur

6-4 6-4#148August Holmgren

Chris Rodesch

7W 8L

6-2 7-6(4)#117Leandro Riedi

6-7(0) 6-3 7-5#105Jan Choinski

6-1 6-2#169Luka Mikrut

5-7 6-4 6-2#265Stefan Dostanic

6-4 6-3#70Dino Prizmic

6-4 6-4#140Dusan Lajovic

7-6(2) 6-2#106Rinky Hijikata

6-4 7-6(4)#142Moez Echargui

5-7 6-2 6-1#246Franco Agamenone

4-0 ret.#167Nicolas Mejia

6-4 6-4#359Marc Polmans

6-3 6-3#228Oliver Crawford

6-2 6-4#91Adam Walton

6-3 6-1#830Oleksii Krutykh

6-3 7-5#171Daniil Glinka