Tristan Boyer vs Raphael Perot: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Boyer's stronger recent form against higher-ranked opponents and Perot's fatigue from back-to-back qualifying matches give Boyer a moderate edge.
- Boyer is 8-4 on clay in 2026, including a recent win over Filip Cristian Jianu (rank 263) and competitive loss to Sebastian Baez (rank 56).
- Perot is 12-7 on clay in 2026 but faces a heavy schedule, playing consecutive days on 7-8 June in Lyon qualifying.
- Boyer's career clay win percentage (82-56, 59.4%) slightly edges Perot's (29-20, 59.2%), with Boyer having more high-level clay experience.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonTristan BoyerEstimated chance62%

Games0 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Boyer's and Perot's recent match lengths and their moderate break-point efficiency points to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- Boyer's last 5 matches averaged 21.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Perot's last 5 matches averaged 20.8 games, with 3 of 5 going over 21.5.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates around 40-49%, suggesting competitive service games and potential for extended sets.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Perot's ability to win return points and Boyer's lack of dominant wins suggest Perot will cover the +3.5 game handicap in a competitive match.
- Perot's recent losses have been by margins of 4, 7, and 7 games, but his wins are often by 5+ games.
- Boyer's wins are typically by 3-5 games, with only one blowout (6-1, 6-0) in his last 15.
- Perot's return points won percentage (44%) is higher than Boyer's (39%), indicating he can keep games close.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostRaphael Perot +3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
The strong serving numbers and competitive nature of the match suggest the first set will likely exceed 9.5 games.
- Boyer's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Perot's last 5 first sets averaged 9.2 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Both players have solid first-serve win percentages (Boyer 67%, Perot 66%), making breaks less frequent.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Assuming a competitive match, the second set is likely to be close, with a slight edge toward over 9.5 games.
- Boyer's last 5 second sets averaged 9.4 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
- Perot's last 5 second sets averaged 9.0 games, with 2 of 5 going over 9.5.
- If the match is close, the second set is likely to be tightly contested.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Boyer's tendency to start strong and Perot's potential fatigue from qualifying suggest Boyer is slightly more likely to take the opening set.
- Boyer has won the first set in 5 of his last 7 matches, including against Baez and Jianu.
- Perot lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including a 6-1 set against Balshaw.
- Boyer's first-set win conversion rate over his career is 83%, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTristan BoyerEstimated chance58%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low ace rates, and the clay surface further diminishes the likelihood of a high ace count, making under 8.5 a strong play.
- Boyer's ace rate is 4.3% (career 796 aces in 303 matches, ~2.6 per match).
- Perot's ace rate is 3.2% (career 222 aces in 112 matches, ~2.0 per match).
- Clay courts typically reduce ace counts, and neither player is a big server.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While neither player has a high double fault rate, the expected match length and competitive nature could push the total over 5.5.
- Boyer's double fault rate is 3.4% (career 622 in 303 matches, ~2.1 per match).
- Perot's double fault rate is 2.9% (career 199 in 112 matches, ~1.8 per match).
- In a potentially long match with pressure points, double faults could accumulate.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Tristan Boyer #198United States2Raphael Perot #409France0

Player Profiles

Tristan Boyer

Raphael Perot

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Tristan Boyer 2-0

Over 9.5

Tristan Boyer

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Markets to Avoid

Tristan Boyer @ 1.29

Raphael Perot 2-1 @ 6.50

Tristan Boyer

Raphael Perot