Pierluigi Basile #660Italy00 – 2Raul Brancaccio #239Italy2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Brancaccio's superior clay pedigree, stronger recent opposition, and Basile's poor form give him a clear edge in this Bo3 clay opener.

• Brancaccio career clay win% 57.3 vs Basile 52.5, with 304 clay wins vs 23
• Brancaccio 2026 clay record 15-12 vs Basile 6-6, facing stronger opponents (avg rank ~200 vs ~350)
• Basile lost 4 of last 5 matches, including a 6-2 6-3 loss to Pellegrino (rank 124) 3 days ago
• Brancaccio return points won 43% career vs Basile 38%, break point convert 45% vs 40%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players frequently engage in extended matches, and their recent form suggests a competitive Bo3 likely exceeding 21.5 games.

• Basile's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games, with 3 of 5 over 21.5
• Brancaccio's last 5 matches averaged 24.2 games, with 4 of 5 over 21.5
• Both players have high deciding set rates: Basile 42% career, Brancaccio 45%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Basile's competitive losses and Brancaccio's narrow win margins suggest Basile can keep the game differential within 3.5 games.

• Basile's last 5 losses: average margin -5.4 games, but 3 were within 3 games
• Brancaccio's last 5 wins: average margin +4.2 games, only 2 covered -3.5
• Basile holds serve 67% on first serve, Brancaccio 66%, limiting blowout potential

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Recent first sets for both players often exceed 9.5 games, indicating a competitive start.

• Basile's last 5 first sets: 12, 7, 13, 13, 8 games (avg 10.6)
• Brancaccio's last 5 first sets: 13, 6, 8, 6, 10 games (avg 8.6)
• Combined first set average 9.6 games, with 6 of 10 over 9.5

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Second sets tend to be tightly contested, with a slight lean toward over 9.5 games based on recent data.

• Basile's last 5 second sets: 9, 9, 10, 10, 8 games (avg 9.2)
• Brancaccio's last 5 second sets: 10, 12, 10, 8, 9 games (avg 9.8)
• Combined second set average 9.5 games, with 5 of 10 over 9.5

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50

The read

Brancaccio's high first-set conversion rate and Basile's recent slow starts make Brancaccio the likely set 1 winner.

• Brancaccio first set win conversion 87% career vs Basile 81%
• Basile lost first set in 3 of last 5 matches, including 6-2 vs Pellegrino
• Brancaccio won first set in 2 of last 3 wins, including 6-4 vs Zink and 6-3 vs Clarke

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, especially on clay, making under 7.5 aces likely in a Bo3 match.

• Basile ace rate 4.7% (career 213 aces in 61 matches, ~3.5 per match)
• Brancaccio ace rate 2.8% (career 1180 aces in 705 matches, ~1.7 per match)
• Clay surface reduces ace counts; combined average ~5.2 aces per match

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have elevated double fault rates, and a competitive match should push the total over 5.5.

• Basile double fault rate 4.4% (career 197 in 61 matches, ~3.2 per match)
• Brancaccio double fault rate 4.7% (career 1998 in 705 matches, ~2.8 per match)
• Combined average ~6.0 double faults per match, higher in pressure situations

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The closely matched serve stats and history of tiebreaks for both players make at least one tiebreak likely.

• Basile tiebreak win% 54%, played tiebreaks in 4 of last 10 matches
• Brancaccio tiebreak win% 54%, played tiebreaks in 3 of last 10 matches
• Both have similar serve hold percentages (~67% on first serve), leading to tight sets