Ilkley - Great BritainFinished

Predictions graded

Mark Lajal #157Estonia1Paul Jubb #313United Kingdom2

Sets 7-6 · 2-6 · 6-7Mon 8 Jun 2026, 13:19 Predictions gradedQ3Grass

Predictions5–363%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMark Lajal · 156 places

Mark Lajal

Estonia

Career-high No. 145 came on 2025-09-22. Public profiles list indoor hard as his preferred surface. No clear public injury-decline narrative surfaced in the June 8 search set.

Current ranking: #157
Peak ranking: #145 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: Indoor Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Paul Jubb

United Kingdom

Career-high No. 180 came on 2024-10-28. Public profiles list grass as his preferred surface. No clear public injury-decline narrative surfaced in the June 8 search set.

Current ranking: #313
Peak ranking: #180 · 2024
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 180 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 8 Jun 2026, 00:25 · Europe/Bucharest

Mark Lajal’s superior recent grass form and 1-0 H2H lead make him the favorite against Paul Jubb in this Ilkley qualifying decider.

Back Lajal to win at 1.44 for a slight edge, and consider over 10.5 total aces given his strong serve on grass.

Context

Lajal's last 4 grass matches: 3-1, with wins over Riedi (120), Wendelken (227), and Matusevich (382).
- Jubb's last 5 matches: 2-3, including losses to Brady (868) and Alkaya (321) on clay/hard.
- Lajal's recent grass wins came in straight sets, showing comfort on the surface.
Jubb beat Basing 6-7, 6-0, 6-3 on June 7, playing three sets and 28 games.
- Lajal beat Matusevich 6-7, 6-3, 6-1 on June 7, but lost the first set in a tiebreak.
- Both played on the same day, but Jubb's match was more physically demanding.
Lajal won 6-3, 7-5 in the 2024 meeting, with 11 aces to Jubb's 4.
- Lajal won 81% of first-serve points and saved all break points in that match.
- The match was on indoor hard, not grass, but Lajal's serve was dominant.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Lajal's superior recent form on grass and H2H advantage give him a clear edge in this Bo3 qualifying decider.
- Lajal leads H2H 1-0, winning 6-3 7-5 on indoor hard in Nov 2024.
- Lajal's recent grass form: 3-1 in last 4 grass matches, including wins over Riedi (rank 120) and Wendelken (227).
- Jubb's last 5 matches: 2-3, with losses to Brady (rank 868) and Alkaya (321) on clay/hard.
- Lajal's career grass win rate: 13-7 (65%), Jubb: 23-14 (62%), but Lajal's current surface edge is stronger.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostMark LajalEstimated chance72%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent matches trend toward competitive sets, pushing total games over 21.5.
- Lajal's last 5 Bo3 matches averaged 22.2 total games.
- Jubb's last 5 Bo3 matches averaged 21.6 total games.
- H2H match had 21 games, but both players have shown tight sets recently.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent first sets for both players have been competitive, making over 9.5 games likely.
- Lajal's last 4 grass matches: first set games averaged 10.0.
- Jubb's last 5 matches: first set games averaged 9.2.
- H2H first set had 9 games, but current form suggests tighter opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have been closely contested for both, favoring over 9.5 games.
- Lajal's last 4 grass matches: second set games averaged 9.5.
- Jubb's last 5 matches: second set games averaged 9.4.
- Both players have similar second-set game counts in recent outings.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Lajal's strong start trend on grass and Jubb's recent slow starts make Lajal likely to take the opener.
- Lajal won first set in 3 of his last 4 grass matches.
- Jubb lost first set in 3 of his last 5 matches overall.
- Lajal's first-set win conversion career: 84%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMark LajalEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lajal's consistency in closing sets on grass and Jubb's vulnerability in second sets support Lajal winning set 2.
- Lajal won second set in 3 of his last 4 grass matches.
- Jubb lost second set in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Lajal's win-on-second-serve (50%) slightly edges Jubb's (52%) in career, but recent form favors Lajal.
BetBugs · Set 2 WinnerlostMark LajalEstimated chance62%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Lajal's high ace rate and the grass surface should push total aces over 10.5.
- Lajal's ace rate: 7.2% (career), Jubb's: 4.9%.
- H2H match had 15 aces total (Lajal 11, Jubb 4).
- Grass surface typically increases ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 10.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players' recent high frequency of tiebreaks makes a tiebreak in this match likely.
- Lajal's tiebreak win rate: 55% career, Jubb's: 60%.
- Lajal has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Jubb has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance55%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-3 7-5Mark Lajal#157vPaul Jubb#313Nov 4, 2024

1 total meetings

Mark Lajal

9W 6L

6-7(6) 6-3 6-1#382Anton Matusevich

7-5 6-4#166Bu Yunchaokete

6-4 6-1#227Harry Wendelken

6-2 7-6(1)#120Leandro Riedi

6-4 6-4#141Roman Safiullin

7-6(5) 6-3#188Soon-Woo Kwon

7-5 6-3#131Dane Sweeny

7-6(8) 6-7(2) 7-6(2)#304Mikhail Kukushkin

7-6(2) 6-4#329Renta Tokuda

3-6 6-3 6-4#265Fajing Sun

6-4 6-4#374Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 6-2#307Akira Santillan

7-6(10) 6-7(3) 6-3#207Yu Hsiou Hsu

7-5 5-7 7-6(6)#411Maximus Jones

6-4 7-6(1)#220Pierre-Hugues Herbert

Paul Jubb

8W 7L

6-7(4) 6-0 6-3#322Max Basing

6-1 6-3#868Patrick Brady

6-1 6-4#321Mert Alkaya

7-6(0) 6-1#555Digvijaypratap Singh

7-5 4-6 5-0 ret.#523Karim Bennani

2-6 7-6(4) 6-3#668Aziz Dougaz

6-4 2-6 7-5#840Grigory Shebekin

6-0 6-3#527Michael Bassem Sobhy

6-0 6-1—Maksym Khlyvniuk

7-6(6) 2-6 7-6(6)#337Tung-Lin Wu

4-6 6-1 6-4#856Ryotaro Taguchi

6-2 4-6 7-6(4)#227Harry Wendelken

7-5 6-0#380Kasidit Samrej

6-3 6-1#317Maxim Mrva

7-6(0) 6-7(0) 6-4#209Lorenzo Giustino