Kyrian Jacquet #147France11 – 2Toby Samuel #159United Kingdom2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Samuel's superior grass-court pedigree, stronger serve metrics, and Jacquet's recent elbow surgery layoff give the Brit a clear edge in this Bo3 opener.

• Samuel career grass wins: 14 (74.3% overall win rate), Jacquet only 2 career grass wins
• Samuel last 5 matches: 3-2 with wins over Bueno, Goffin, Damm; Jacquet 2-3 with losses to Trungelliti, Giustino
• Samuel first-serve win% 70%, second-serve win% 53% vs Jacquet 68%/50%
• Jacquet returning from elbow surgery, only 4 matches since March 2026

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match lengths and the potential for tiebreaks on grass suggest a competitive match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Jacquet's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games; Samuel's averaged 22.4
• Both players have high tiebreak rates (Jacquet 55%, Samuel 63% career tiebreak win%)
• Grass often produces tight sets with few breaks

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Even if Samuel leads, Jacquet's fighting spirit (23% career comeback rate) could keep the second set close, pushing it over 9.5 games.

• Jacquet's last 5 second sets: 6-3, 6-3, 6-3, 7-6, 6-4 (avg 9.4 games)
• Samuel's last 5 second sets: 6-4, 6-1, 6-3, 6-2, 6-2 (avg 8.4 games, but skewed by lopsided wins)
• If first set is tight, second set often stays competitive

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Even if Samuel wins, Jacquet's recent losses have been competitive, and a +3.5 game handicap covers a potential 7-5, 6-4 defeat.

• Jacquet's last 5 losses: game differentials of -10, -4, -5, -2, -2 (avg -4.6)
• Samuel's last 5 wins: game differentials of +6, +4, +5, +6, +6 (avg +5.4)
• Jacquet's comeback ability (23% rate) suggests he can keep matches close

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in many three-set matches recently, and their similar deciding-set records suggest a possible decider.

• Jacquet's last 5 matches: 3 three-setters, 2 straight-setters
• Samuel's last 5 matches: 3 three-setters, 2 straight-setters
• Both have deciding-set win% around 53-54%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have strong tiebreak records and recent history of playing them, making at least one tiebreak likely on grass.

• Jacquet tiebreak win% 55%, Samuel 63%
• Jacquet played tiebreaks in 3 of last 5 matches; Samuel in 2 of last 5
• Grass courts produce more tiebreaks due to serve dominance

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Samuel's higher ace rate and the grass surface should push combined aces over 12.5 in a likely two-set match.

• Samuel ace rate 5.8%, Jacquet 4.7%
• Samuel averages ~6 aces per match, Jacquet ~4.5
• Grass surface amplifies ace counts for big servers like Samuel (191cm)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Jacquet's higher double fault rate, combined with Samuel's solid but not elite rate, makes over 5.5 double faults plausible in a tight match.

• Jacquet double fault rate 4.5%, Samuel 2.9%
• Jacquet averages ~3.5 DFs per match, Samuel ~2
• Pressure situations on grass can increase double faults