WTA LondonFinished

Predictions graded

Alina Charaeva #130Russia1Polina Kudermetova #123Uzbekistan2

Sets 3-6 · 6-4 · 4-6Sun 7 Jun 2026, 15:32 Predictions gradedQ3Grass

Predictions6–275%

Edges2–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantagePolina Kudermetova · 7 places

Alina Charaeva

Russia

Career-high No. 122 on 2026-05-18. Won her first WTA 125 title at Midland in 2026. Available surface splits lean clay, while her grass sample is still small.

Current ranking: #130
Peak ranking: #122 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Polina Kudermetova

Uzbekistan

Career-high No. 54 on 2025-04-14. Her 2026 WTA page lists a 23-10 season with WTA 125 finals in Canberra and Oeiras. Reliable public sources did not clearly state one preferred surface.

Current ranking: #123
Peak ranking: #54 · 2025
Current age: 23
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 7 Jun 2026, 22:23 · Europe/Bucharest

Polina Kudermetova holds a 2-0 H2H advantage, including a same-day grass win, and her stronger 2026 form gives her the edge in this Queen's qualifying final.

Both players face fatigue from earlier matches, but Kudermetova's serve and three-set resilience point to a likely victory. The best betting angle is over 21.5 total games, given the H2H trend and both players' recent match lengths.

Context

Kudermetova won 6-3, 4-6, 6-4 on grass earlier on June 7.
- She also won 7-5, 6-4 on clay in March 2026.
- In both matches, Kudermetova won the first set and converted break points more efficiently.
Charaeva beat Talia Gibson 6-2, 7-6(6) earlier today.
- Kudermetova beat Priscilla Hon 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 earlier today.
- Both matches lasted over two hours, leaving limited recovery time before this final.
She reached WTA 125 finals in Canberra and Oeiras this season.
- She has won 8 of her last 10 matches, including today's win over Charaeva.
- Her career win percentage is 62%, with a 56% deciding-set win rate.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kudermetova's 2-0 H2H edge, including a same-day grass win, and stronger recent form give her a clear advantage.
- H2H: Kudermetova leads 2-0, including a 6-3 4-6 6-4 win earlier today on grass.
- Surface: Kudermetova is 2-0 on grass in 2026; Charaeva is 2-2 with limited grass experience.
- Recent form: Kudermetova has won 8 of last 10 matches; Charaeva has lost 3 of last 5.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonPolina KudermetovaEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.80
The read
The H2H trend and both players' recent match lengths suggest a competitive match likely exceeding 21.5 games.
- H2H: Both matches went over 21.5 games (22 and 23 games).
- Recent matches: Charaeva's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 games; Kudermetova's averaged 22.4.
- Surface: Grass matches often feature tight sets with few breaks, leading to higher game totals.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve effectively, the first set is likely to be tight and exceed 9.5 games.
- H2H: First sets had 9 and 12 games.
- Recent first sets: Charaeva's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games; Kudermetova's averaged 9.4.
- Serve stats: Both have first-serve win percentages around 63-65%, indicating holds are common.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The second set is expected to be competitive, mirroring the first, with a good chance of going over 9.5 games.
- H2H: Second sets had 10 and 10 games.
- Recent second sets: Charaeva's last 5 second sets averaged 9.8 games; Kudermetova's averaged 9.6.
- Match context: Both players are in form and unlikely to collapse in the second set.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kudermetova's history of winning the first set against Charaeva and her strong recent set-one performance support her taking the opener.
- H2H: Kudermetova won the first set in both previous meetings.
- First-set conversion: Both players have a 90% first-set win conversion rate, but Kudermetova's serve stats are slightly better on grass.
- Recent sets: Kudermetova has won the first set in 4 of her last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonPolina KudermetovaEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The H2H history and both players' tendency to play three-set matches make a deciding set likely.
- H2H: Both matches went to three sets.
- Recent form: Charaeva has played 3 three-setters in her last 5 matches; Kudermetova has played 2.
- Deciding set stats: Both have deciding set win rates around 56-57%, showing resilience.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players capable of hitting aces on grass, the total aces are likely to exceed 6.5.
- Ace rates: Kudermetova averages 4.2% aces; Charaeva 2.9%.
- H2H: Combined aces in their two matches were 6 and 6.
- Grass surface: Typically yields more aces due to faster conditions.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 6.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have relatively high double fault rates, and the match context could push the total over 7.5.
- Double fault rates: Charaeva 7.1%, Kudermetova 6.5%.
- H2H: Combined double faults in their two matches were 7 and 7.
- Pressure: Qualifying final stakes may increase nervous errors.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and strong serving suggest a tiebreak is a reasonable possibility.
- Tiebreak history: Charaeva has played 4 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches; Kudermetova has played 3.
- H2H: No tiebreaks in their two meetings, but both sets were close.
- Serve stats: Both have first-serve win percentages around 63-65%, leading to tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance50%

Head-to-Head

0-2 (2 meetings)

L6-3 4-6 6-4Alina Charaeva#130vPolina Kudermetova#123Jun 7, 2026

L7-5 6-4Alina Charaeva#130vPolina Kudermetova#123Mar 4, 2026

2 total meetings

Alina Charaeva

9W 6L

6-3 4-6 6-4#123Polina Kudermetova

6-2 7-6(6)#58Talia Gibson

6-2 7-5#37Alexandra Eala

6-3 6-1#164Greetje Minnen

6-4 7-5#152Lucrezia Stefanini

7-6(6) 7-6(6)#92Diane Parry

6-4 6-0#124Aliaksandra Sasnovich

6-4 6-7(3) 7-5#95Tamara Korpatsch

6-4 6-0#35Sara Bejlek

6-3 6-4#226Alice Tubello

4-6 6-0 6-4#53Daria Kasatkina

7-5 3-6 7-6(1)#34Xinyu Wang

6-4 6-2#115Dalma Galfi

6-4 6-2#40Janice Tjen

6-7(6) 6-2 7-6(6)#69Nikola Bartunkova

Polina Kudermetova

12W 3L

6-3 4-6 6-4#130Alina Charaeva

4-6 6-4 6-3#143Priscilla Hon

6-3 6-3#148Xiyu Wang

7-6(2) 6-7(5) 6-3#160Viktoriya Tomova

6-1 7-6(5)#157Anouk Koevermans

4-6 6-2 6-4#226Alice Tubello

3-6 7-5 7-5#197Anastasia Gasanova

6-3 6-1#383Cagla Buyukakcay

6-3 0-6 6-1#181Fiona Ferro

6-4 6-4#195Whitney Osuigwe

7-6(4) 6-4#172Lucia Bronzetti

5-7 6-4 6-4#191Guiomar Zuleta De Reales

5-7 6-0 6-2#216Celine Naef

6-3 6-0#420Lea Boskovic

6-1 6-1—Beatriz Castro