Alex Marti Pujolras #473Spain22 – 0Benjamin Hassan #3410

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Marti Pujolras's superior clay-court form and recent winning momentum give him a clear edge over Hassan, who has struggled in recent matches.

• Marti Pujolras is 21-10 on clay in 2026, Hassan is 6-6.
• Marti Pujolras has won 8 of last 10 matches, Hassan has lost 4 of last 5.
• Marti Pujolras holds a 48% break point conversion rate vs Hassan's 41.7%.
• Marti Pujolras has a 55.3% break point save rate vs Hassan's 58.2%, but Marti Pujolras faces weaker returners recently.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be competitive given both players' serve stats and recent first-set game counts, pushing it over 9.5 games.

• Marti Pujolras's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 over 9.5.
• Hassan's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 65-69%, limiting quick breaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

If Marti Pujolras wins, his margin of victory in recent matches suggests a decent chance of covering a -3.5 game handicap.

• Marti Pujolras's average games won in recent wins: 12.5, Hassan's average games lost in recent losses: 12.2.
• Marti Pujolras has covered -3.5 in 6 of his last 10 wins.
• Hassan has lost by more than 3.5 games in 3 of his last 5 losses.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80

The read

Marti Pujolras's strong recent trend of winning first sets contrasts with Hassan's poor starts, making him likely to take the opener.

• Marti Pujolras has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches.
• Hassan has lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
• Marti Pujolras's first-set win conversion rate is 86% career, Hassan's is also 86%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Neither player is a big server, and their ace rates suggest a total under 7.5 is likely in a typical two-set match.

• Marti Pujolras averages 2.2% ace rate, Hassan 5.7%.
• In a best-of-3 match, expected aces: Marti Pujolras ~2, Hassan ~4, total ~6.
• Both players have moderate first-serve percentages, reducing ace opportunities.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Marti Pujolras's elevated double fault rate pushes the combined total over 5.5, even with Hassan's lower rate.

• Marti Pujolras has a 6.7% double fault rate, Hassan 4.7%.
• In a best-of-3 match, expected double faults: Marti Pujolras ~4, Hassan ~3, total ~7.
• Marti Pujolras's high double fault rate is a consistent pattern.