WTA MakarskaFinished

Predictions graded

Sara Sorribes Tormo #304Spain0Maria Timofeeva #118Uzbekistan2

Sets 2-6 · 5-7Sat 6 Jun 2026, 15:15 Predictions gradedSemi-FinalClay

Predictions3–538%

Edges2–340%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaria Timofeeva · 186 places

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Spain

Reached a career-high No. 32 on February 7, 2022. After a six-month mental health break from April to November 2025, she returned late that year and is rebuilding her singles ranking.

Current ranking: #304
Peak ranking: #32 · 2022
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 176 cm

Maria Timofeeva

Uzbekistan

Reached a career-high No. 93 on April 1, 2024. Her biggest singles titles are Budapest 2023 and the WTA 125 Istanbul title in May 2026, which are the clearest public markers of her current trajectory.

Current ranking: #118
Peak ranking: #93 · 2024
Current age: 22
Preferred surface: —
Hand: Right handed
Height: 167 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 Jun 2026, 01:32 · Europe/Bucharest

Sorribes Tormo’s superior clay pedigree, dominant H2H win, and straight-set run in Makarska make her the favorite.

Back her to win and cover a 2-0 set score, with value on under 21.5 total games and over 7.5 double faults. Avoid the -3.5 game handicap and under 2.5 sets due to Timofeeva’s strong form.

Context

Beat Jimenez Kasintseva 6-1 6-1, Radivojevic 6-2 6-4, and Noma Akugue Noha 6-0 6-4.
- Has not faced a tiebreak or a deciding set this week.
- Her 2026 clay record now stands at 19-5.
Beat Andreeva (No. 230), Boskovic (No. 420), and Kabbaj (No. 297) in straight sets.
- Won the Istanbul WTA 125 on May 9, beating Donna Vekic in the final.
- Her 2026 clay record is 16-5, but she has not faced a player ranked inside the top 100 this week.
The 2024 match was on clay, the same surface as today.
- Sorribes Tormo broke serve 6 times and saved 4 of 5 break points.
- Timofeeva managed only 1 ace and 8 double faults in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Sorribes Tormo's dominant H2H win on clay and superior career surface record give her a clear edge, supported by her current 2026 clay form (19-5) and straight-set run in Makarska.
- Sorribes Tormo leads H2H 1-0 on clay (6-1 6-3 in 2024), winning 60% of return points and converting 60% of break points.
- Sorribes Tormo has a 19-5 clay record in 2026, including three straight-set wins this week in Makarska without dropping a set.
- Timofeeva is 16-5 on clay in 2026 but lost her only previous meeting with Sorribes Tormo and has a lower career clay win percentage (77 wins vs. Sorribes Tormo's 271).
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostSara Sorribes TormoEstimated chance60%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Sorribes Tormo's first-set dominance in Makarska and the H2H pattern point to a quick first set under 8.5 games.
- Sorribes Tormo's first sets this week: 6-1, 6-2, 6-0 (avg 7.0 games).
- Timofeeva's first sets this week: 6-3, 6-4, 7-5 (avg 9.3 games), but against lower-ranked players.
- In the H2H, the first set was 6-1 (7 games).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Both players have consistently produced low-game matches in Makarska, and the H2H was a quick straight-setter, suggesting a total under 21.5 is likely.
- Sorribes Tormo's three Makarska matches averaged 16.7 total games (12-4, 12-6, 12-2), all under 21.5.
- Timofeeva's three Makarska matches averaged 18.3 total games (12-5, 12-7, 13-6), also under 21.5.
- The 2024 H2H had 16 total games (6-1, 6-3), well under 21.5.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have kept second sets tight but under 8.5 in most recent matches, though the H2H second set went to 9 games, lowering confidence.
- Sorribes Tormo's second sets this week: 6-4, 6-4, 6-4 (avg 8.0 games).
- Timofeeva's second sets this week: 6-2, 6-3, 6-1 (avg 7.3 games).
- The H2H second set was 6-3 (9 games), slightly over 8.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 8.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Sorribes Tormo's dominant H2H and current form suggest she can cover -3.5 games, but Timofeeva's strong week makes it a narrow edge.
- Sorribes Tormo's average game margin in Makarska: +6.7 games per match.
- Timofeeva's average game margin in Makarska: +6.3 games per match, but against weaker opponents.
- The H2H margin was +8 games for Sorribes Tormo (12-4).
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostSara Sorribes Tormo -3.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90
The read
Sorribes Tormo's dominant first-set record this week and in the H2H, combined with her elite career first-set conversion rate, makes her the likely set 1 winner.
- Sorribes Tormo has won the first set in all three Makarska matches this week, losing only 12 games total across six sets.
- In the 2024 H2H, Sorribes Tormo took the first set 6-1, breaking Timofeeva's serve three times.
- Timofeeva's first-set performance in recent clay matches has been strong, but she faced lower-ranked opponents; Sorribes Tormo's first-set win conversion rate is 90% career.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostSara Sorribes TormoEstimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 3.00
The read
Sorribes Tormo's superior clay pedigree and dominant H2H suggest she can replicate a straight-set win, though Timofeeva's form makes a 2-1 outcome possible.
- Sorribes Tormo has won all three Makarska matches in straight sets, losing no more than 4 games in any set.
- Timofeeva has also won all three Makarska matches in straight sets, but against weaker opposition (avg ranking 315 vs. Sorribes Tormo's 138).
- The H2H was a straight-set win for Sorribes Tormo (6-1, 6-3).
BetBugs · Set BettinglostSara Sorribes Tormo 2-0Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Neither player is a big server; their low ace rates and the clay surface make under 3.5 aces highly probable.
- Sorribes Tormo's career ace rate is 0.6%, with only 251 aces in 753 matches.
- Timofeeva's career ace rate is 1.9%, but she had only 1 ace in the H2H match.
- Both players rely on rally tolerance over big serving, especially on clay.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 3.5Estimated chance75%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing strong break-point conversion and few tiebreaks in recent form, a tiebreak-free match is probable.
- Sorribes Tormo has not played a tiebreak in her last 15 matches.
- Timofeeva has played one tiebreak in her last 15 matches (won 7-6(2) vs. Jones).
- The H2H had no tiebreaks, and both players' recent sets have been decided by breaks rather than tiebreaks.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have elevated double fault rates, and the H2H showed a high combined total, making over 7.5 likely.
- Sorribes Tormo's career double fault rate is 7.1%, and she had 4 double faults in the H2H.
- Timofeeva's career double fault rate is 5.4%, but she had 8 double faults in the H2H.
- Combined H2H double faults were 12, well over 7.5.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 6-3Sara Sorribes Tormo#304vMaria Timofeeva#118Apr 2, 2024

1 total meetings

Sara Sorribes Tormo

12W 3L

6-0 6-4#162Noma Akugue Noha

6-2 6-4#147Lola Radivojevic

6-1 6-1#104Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva

6-4 6-2#95Tamara Korpatsch

6-2 6-0#53Daria Kasatkina

3-6 7-5 7-5#218Elena Pridankina

1-6 6-3 6-4#64Antonia Ruzic

6-4 2-6 6-3#100Ajla Tomljanovic

6-4 3-1 ret.#95Tamara Korpatsch

6-4 6-1#158Leyre Romero Gormaz

6-3 4-6 6-0#324Lisa Zaar

6-4 6-2#270Katarina Zavatska

7-5 3-6 6-2#184Tyra Caterina Grant

6-3 6-2#172Lucia Bronzetti

6-3 6-2—Sara Mikaca

Maria Timofeeva

13W 2L

7-5 6-1#297Yasmine Kabbaj

6-4 6-3#420Lea Boskovic

6-3 6-2#230Erika Andreeva

2-6 6-0 6-4#209Maria Lourdes Carle

6-1 6-3#202Cadence Brace

6-4 6-2#72Donna Vekic

6-4 4-6 6-0#226Alice Tubello

7-6(2) 6-3#102Francesca Jones

6-4 6-3#586Adelina Lachinova

6-4 6-3#162Noma Akugue Noha

7-6(5) 6-2#273Tessa Johanna Brockmann

6-2 6-3#138Lisa Pigato

6-2 6-2#200Alice Rame

6-1 6-4#215Susan Bandecchi

6-2 4-6 6-1#267Jennifer Ruggeri

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Maria Timofeeva

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Under 8.5

Under 21.5

Sara Sorribes Tormo 2-0

Result0 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Sara Sorribes Tormo

Maria Timofeeva