Ugo Blanchet #160France11 – 2Felix Gill #240United Kingdom2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Gill's superior overall win rate, slightly better recent form, and marginally stronger return game give him a moderate edge on grass.

• Gill career win% 64.4 vs Blanchet 56.9
• Gill clay-heavy but 3 grass wins vs Blanchet 2
• Gill last 5: 3-2, Blanchet last 5: 2-3
• Gill return pts won 42% vs Blanchet 39%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches average over 21.5 games, and their tiebreak proficiency increases the likelihood of extended sets.

• Blanchet last 5 matches avg 21.2 total games
• Gill last 5 matches avg 22.6 total games
• Both players have 55%+ tiebreak win rates
• No H2H, but both have close recent matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91

The read

Recent first-set data shows both players frequently play sets with 10+ games, and their tiebreak ability supports a close opener.

• Blanchet last 5 first sets: 6-4, 4-6, 3-6, 6-1, 2-6 (avg 9.4 games)
• Gill last 5 first sets: 6-7, 2-6, 6-3, 4-6, 7-6 (avg 10.6 games)
• Both have 55%+ tiebreak win rates

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Second-set data indicates a tendency for competitive sets, with both players averaging near 10 games in recent matches.

• Blanchet last 5 second sets: 2-6, 7-6, 6-7, 5-7, 4-6 (avg 10.0 games)
• Gill last 5 second sets: 3-6, 7-5, 1-6, 6-4, 6-7 (avg 9.8 games)
• Both players show ability to extend second sets

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Blanchet's recent defeats have been competitive, and a +3.5 game handicap covers a straight-set loss with tight sets.

• Blanchet lost last 5 matches by avg 4.2 games
• Gill won last 5 matches by avg 2.4 games
• Blanchet's recent losses were mostly close (6-4, 7-5 sets)

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have been involved in three-setters in 60% of their recent matches, suggesting a decent chance this match goes the distance.

• Blanchet 3 of last 5 matches went 3 sets
• Gill 3 of last 5 matches went 3 sets
• Both have deciding set win% around 53-55%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have strong tiebreak records and frequently play tight sets, making a tiebreak likely in this matchup.

• Blanchet tiebreak win% 55%, Gill 62%
• Blanchet played tiebreaks in 3 of last 15 matches
• Gill played tiebreaks in 5 of last 15 matches
• Both have close recent sets with 7-6 scores

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Blanchet's higher ace rate and the grass surface should push total aces over 7.5 in a competitive match.

• Blanchet ace rate 6.3% (career 1885 aces in 494 matches)
• Gill ace rate 3.5% (career 802 aces in 354 matches)
• Grass surface typically increases ace counts
• Combined ace rates suggest ~8-10 aces in a close match

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Blanchet's elevated double fault rate combined with grass-court conditions should push total double faults over 5.5.

• Blanchet double fault rate 4.8% (1445 in 494 matches)
• Gill double fault rate 3.5% (806 in 354 matches)
• Grass can lead to more double faults due to lower bounce