Timofey Skatov #189Kazakhstan22 – 1Vilius Gaubas #133Lithuania1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Recent match data shows both players frequently engage in longer matches, making over 21.5 games likely.

• Skatov's last 5 matches averaged 21.6 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5.
• Gaubas's last 5 matches averaged 22.8 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5.
• Both players have similar break-point save rates (around 58-60%), indicating potential for extended games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Skatov's recent competitive performances suggest he can keep the match within a 3.5-game margin.

• Skatov's last 5 losses were by an average margin of 5.6 games, but 3 of those were within 3.5 games.
• Gaubas's last 5 wins were by an average margin of 5.4 games, but only 2 covered a -3.5 handicap.
• Skatov has kept matches close against similar-ranked opponents, losing by 2 games or fewer in 2 of his last 3 defeats.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The first set is likely to be closely contested, with both players holding serve effectively early on.

• Skatov's last 5 first sets averaged 9.4 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Gaubas's last 5 first sets averaged 9.6 games, with 3 of 5 going over 9.5.
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 63-65%, suggesting competitive early games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Gaubas's recent trend of strong starts and higher first-set conversion rate suggest a slight edge in the opening set.

• Gaubas won the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against top-100 opponents.
• Skatov lost the first set in 3 of his last 5 matches, including against lower-ranked players.
• Gaubas has a career first-set win conversion of 85%, compared to Skatov's 83%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Low ace rates and the clay surface make a high total ace count unlikely.

• Skatov's ace rate is 1.8% (career), with no recent match exceeding 5 aces.
• Gaubas's ace rate is 3.3% (career), but his recent clay matches show low ace counts (e.g., 2 vs Van Assche).
• Clay surface typically reduces ace counts, and both players rely more on rallying than serving power.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and a close match could push the total over 5.5.

• Skatov's double-fault rate is 3.2% (career), with recent matches showing 2-4 double faults.
• Gaubas's double-fault rate is 2.6% (career), but he had 4 double faults in his last match.
• Combined, their average double faults per match could exceed 5.5 in a competitive Bo3.