Elizara Yaneva #22400 – 2Lisa Pigato #138Italy2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Pigato's superior clay-court pedigree and stronger recent form against higher-quality opposition give her a clear edge in this matchup.

• Pigato has a 19-7 clay record in 2026 (73% win rate), while Yaneva is 4-4 on clay this year.
• Pigato's career clay wins: 168 vs Yaneva's 25, showing a massive surface experience gap.
• Pigato's recent form: 8-2 in last 10 matches, including wins over top-150 players like Polina Kudermetova (No. 123) and Darja Semenistaja (No. 110).
• Yaneva's last 5 matches: 2-3, with losses to players ranked outside top 200 (Begu, Tubello).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Pigato's ability to win efficiently and Yaneva's tendency to lose quickly in recent matches point to a relatively short match with fewer total games.

• In Pigato's last 10 wins, 7 finished with 18 games or fewer.
• Yaneva's last 5 losses averaged 16.6 total games per match.
• Both players have low ace rates (Pigato 0.8%, Yaneva 2%) and moderate double fault rates (5%), leading to quicker points and shorter games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Pigato's dominant wins and Yaneva's heavy losses in recent matches suggest Pigato can win by at least 4 games.

• Pigato's average game margin in her last 10 wins is +6.2 games.
• Yaneva's average game margin in her last 5 losses is -5.4 games.
• Pigato has covered a -3.5 game handicap in 7 of her last 10 wins.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Pigato's exceptional record of winning first sets recently, combined with Yaneva's struggles early in matches, makes Pigato the likely first-set winner.

• Pigato has won the first set in 9 of her last 10 matches.
• Yaneva has lost the first set in 4 of her last 6 matches.
• Pigato's career first-set win conversion rate is 88%, indicating strong starts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.65

The read

Pigato's consistency in winning second sets, especially after taking the first, makes her the favorite to win set 2 as well.

• Pigato has won the second set in 8 of her last 10 matches.
• Yaneva has lost the second set in 4 of her last 6 matches.
• Pigato's deciding set win rate is 61%, but she often closes matches in straight sets, indicating strong second-set performance.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Pigato's dominant recent straight-set record and high first-set win rate suggest she can win without dropping a set against a less consistent Yaneva.

• Pigato has won 8 of her last 10 matches in straight sets.
• Yaneva has lost 4 of her last 6 matches in straight sets.
• Pigato's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating she starts strong and often closes out matches efficiently.

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have very low ace rates, making it highly unlikely they will combine for more than 3 aces in this match.

• Pigato's ace rate is 0.8% (career), averaging less than 1 ace per match.
• Yaneva's ace rate is 2% (career), averaging around 1-2 aces per match.
• In their last 15 matches combined, neither player has recorded more than 3 aces in a single match.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have high double fault rates, and their recent matches show a combined average above 7.5 double faults, making the over likely.

• Pigato averages 5 double faults per match (career double fault rate 5%).
• Yaneva averages 5 double faults per match (career double fault rate 5%).
• In their last 5 matches, Pigato has averaged 4.8 double faults and Yaneva 4.2, totaling 9 per match on average.