Bu Yunchaokete #166China22 – 1Lloyd Harris #1431

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive H2H and both players' decent hold rates suggest a close match with over 22.5 games.

• H2H match had 27 games (6-2 3-6 6-4).
• Bu's last 5 matches averaged 22.2 games; Harris's last 5 averaged 21.4 games.
• Both players have solid hold rates: Bu saves 63.1% break points, Harris 62.1%.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Bu's solid form and ability to keep matches close make him likely to cover a +3.5 game handicap.

• H2H was decided by 4 games, but Bu won a set.
• Bu's recent form: 10-5 in last 15, with competitive losses to top-100 players.
• Harris's last 5 matches include a retirement loss and a heavy defeat (6-2 6-1).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

With both players holding serve well, the first set is likely to be tight, pushing over 9.5 games.

• H2H set 1 had 8 games, but both players have strong first-set win rates.
• Bu's recent sets often go to 10+ games; Harris's serve can produce quick holds.
• Grass often leads to tiebreaks or 7-5 sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The competitive H2H and both players' ability to push matches to deciders suggest a three-set match is likely.

• H2H went to three sets.
• Bu has a 49% deciding-set win rate; Harris has 61%.
• Both players have shown resilience in recent matches, with multiple three-setters.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Harris's big serve and the grass surface should push the total aces over 12.5.

• Harris averages 13.2% ace rate; Bu averages 8.2%.
• H2H had 19 total aces (Harris 14, Bu 5).
• Grass surface amplifies serve effectiveness, favoring high ace counts.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

The serve-oriented matchup on grass increases the likelihood of at least one tiebreak.

• Bu's tiebreak win rate is 44%; Harris's is 52%.
• H2H had no tiebreaks, but both players have been in many tiebreaks recently.
• Grass often leads to tight sets and tiebreaks due to strong serving.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Neither player is prone to excessive double faults, so under 5.5 is a reasonable expectation.

• Bu's double fault rate is 2.3%; Harris's is 3.1%.
• H2H had only 3 double faults total.
• Both players have moderate double fault rates, unlikely to spike on grass.