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Predictions graded

Rafael Jodar #29Spain3Pablo Carreno-Busta #89Spain2

Sets 4-6 · 4-6 · 6-1 · 6-2 · 6-2Sun 31 May 2026, 11:29 Predictions gradedFourth RoundClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges1–233%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageRafael Jodar · 60 places

Rafael Jodar

Spain

Madrid-born 19-year-old who broke into the Top 100 in March 2026 and reached a career-high No. 29 on 18 May 2026. His 2026 jump has been driven by title-winning form in Marrakech and deep clay runs in Madrid, Rome and Paris.

Current ranking: #29
Peak ranking: #29 · 2026
Current age: 19
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 191 cm

Pablo Carreno-Busta

Spain

Former world No. 10 with clay listed as his favourite surface. After injury-hit recent seasons, this Roland Garros run is his first second week at a major since the 2022 US Open.

Current ranking: #89
Peak ranking: #10 · 2017
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 188 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 30 May 2026, 08:20 · Europe/Bucharest

Rafael Jodar's breakout clay season and superior return game make him a strong favorite over veteran Pablo Carreno-Busta in this Roland Garros fourth-round clash.

The best betting value is on Jodar to win 3-1 at odds around 3.40, while the outright market is too short and the game handicap too risky.

Context

Jodar defeated Michelsen 7-6(2), 6-7(5), 4-6, 6-3, 6-3 in 4 hours and 16 minutes on 29 May.
- The match was his longest of the tournament and came just two days before this fourth-round contest.
- Jodar has played 11 sets across his first three rounds, with the last two going four and five sets.
Carreno-Busta's 7-6(0), 7-5, 3-6, 6-4 win over Tirante lasted 3h33m on 29 May.
- He has played 10 sets in three rounds, including a retirement win over Kokkinakis that was less taxing.
- At 34, recovery between matches is more challenging than for the 20-year-old Jodar.
Jodar's career return points won is 42%, compared to Carreno-Busta's 39%.
- Jodar converts 44.3% of break points, while Carreno-Busta converts 41.6%.
- On clay in 2026, Jodar is 18-3, with wins over top-20 players De Minaur and Tien.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 2

Other edges · 1

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Rafael Jodar

1.20fair 1.54

BetBugs 65% · Market 83.3%

0.0ppshort

Jodar's superior clay-court form in 2026, higher return metrics, and strong first-set record give him a clear edge over the veteran Carreno-Busta in a Bo5 match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.20
The read
Jodar's superior clay-court form in 2026, higher return metrics, and strong first-set record give him a clear edge over the veteran Carreno-Busta in a Bo5 match.
- Jodar is 18-3 on clay in 2026 (85.7% win rate) vs Carreno-Busta's 16-4 (80%), but Jodar's wins include top-20 opponents (De Minaur, Tien) and a 5-set comeback in R3.
- Jodar's recent form (last 5): 4-1 with wins over Michelsen (42), Duckworth (82), Kovacevic (67), and a loss to Darderi (17); Carreno-Busta's last 5: 4-1 with wins over Tirante (60), Kokkinakis (855 ret.), Lehecka (12), Baez (64), and a loss to Tabilo (36).
- Jodar's return points won (42%) and break point conversion (44.3%) edge Carreno-Busta's 39% and 41.6%, suggesting more break opportunities on clay.
- Jodar's first-set win conversion is 95% (career) vs Carreno-Busta's 87%; Jodar has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonRafael JodarEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' recent high-game-count matches and solid serve/return stats, a total exceeding 36.5 games is probable in a Bo5 contest.
- Jodar's last three Bo5 matches: 54 games (vs Michelsen), 42 games (vs Duckworth), 23 games (vs Kovacevic); average 39.7 games per match.
- Carreno-Busta's last three Bo5 matches: 44 games (vs Tirante), 23 games (vs Kokkinakis ret.), 31 games (vs Lehecka); average 32.7 games, but the Kokkinakis match ended early.
- Both players have strong hold/break profiles on clay, with Jodar saving 58.4% of break points and Carreno-Busta saving 60.5%, suggesting extended sets.
- The match is expected to be competitive with both players in good form, likely going at least 4 sets.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 36.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players serving well and recent first sets often reaching 10+ games, over 9.5 games in set 1 is a solid expectation.
- Jodar's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 6-1, 6-1, 6-7, 6-1; average 9.4 games, with two tiebreaks.
- Carreno-Busta's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 7-5, 6-3, 5-7, 6-4; average 10.2 games, with one tiebreak.
- Both players have first-serve points won around 70%, suggesting holds are likely early in the match.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance58%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of this matchup, with strong hold games and recent long-match trends, makes over 3.5 sets likely.
- Jodar's last two Bo5 matches went 5 and 4 sets; Carreno-Busta's last completed Bo5 went 4 sets.
- Both players have high break-point save rates (Jodar 58.4%, Carreno-Busta 60.5%), making it difficult to close out sets quickly.
- Carreno-Busta's comeback rate is 26% (career), and Jodar's is 22%, indicating both can extend matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Jodar's exceptional first-set conversion rate and recent trend of starting strong make him the favorite to take the opening set.
- Jodar's career first-set win conversion is 95%, and he has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches (Michelsen, Duckworth, Kovacevic, Tien).
- Carreno-Busta's first-set win conversion is 87%, but he dropped the first set in his last two Bo5 matches (Tirante, Kokkinakis).
- Jodar's first-serve points won (70.2%) and second-serve points won (53.8%) are slightly better than Carreno-Busta's 69.6% and 52% on clay.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostRafael JodarEstimated chance62%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With closely matched serve and return stats, at least one set is likely to be decided by a tiebreak.
- Jodar has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 matches (Michelsen, Duckworth, Darderi).
- Carreno-Busta has played a tiebreak in 2 of his last 5 matches (Tirante, Lehecka).
- Jodar's tiebreak win rate is 59% (career), and Carreno-Busta's is 57%, indicating both are comfortable in breakers.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given their low double-fault rates and the expected length of the match, staying under 8.5 double faults is probable.
- Jodar's double fault rate is 2.8% (career), and Carreno-Busta's is 2.4%, both relatively low.
- In Jodar's last 5-set match, he had 4 double faults (estimated); Carreno-Busta had 3 in his 4-set win.
- Both players have solid second-serve win rates (Jodar 53.8%, Carreno-Busta 52%), reducing pressure-induced double faults.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 8.5Estimated chance55%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Rafael Jodar

12W 3L

7-6(2) 6-7(5) 4-6 6-3 6-3#42Alex Michelsen

6-1 6-7(5) 6-4 7-5#82James Duckworth

6-1 6-0 6-4#67Aleksandar Kovacevic

7-6(5) 5-7 6-0#17Luciano Darderi

6-1 6-4#18Learner Tien

6-1 4-6 6-3#104Matteo Arnaldi

7-6(4) 6-4#51Nuno Borges

6-2 7-6(0)#1Jannik Sinner

7-5 6-0#66Vit Kopriva

7-6(4) 4-6 6-1#30Joao Fonseca

6-3 6-1#7Alex De Minaur

2-6 7-5 6-4#106Jesper De Jong

3-6 6-3 6-2#20Arthur Fils

6-3 6-2#24Cameron Norrie

6-3 6-3#59Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Pablo Carreno-Busta

11W 4L

7-6(0) 7-5 3-6 6-4#60Thiago Agustin Tirante

7-5 4-6 1-0 ret.#855Thanasi Kokkinakis

6-3 7-6(3) 6-3#12Jiri Lehecka

5-7 7-5 7-5#64Sebastian Baez

6-4 6-3#102Francisco Comesana

6-2 6-1#36Alejandro Tabilo

6-3 6-3#116Martin Damm

6-3 6-3#23Alejandro Davidovich Fokina

4-6 7-6(5) 6-2#65Marton Fucsovics

6-3 4-3 ret.#140Pedro Martinez Portero

6-4 6-2#122Pablo Llamas Ruiz

3-6 6-3 6-4#112Sebastian Ofner

6-4 4-6 6-4#140Pedro Martinez Portero

3-6 7-5 6-3#455Alejo Sanchez Quilez

7-5 6-1#512Svyatoslav Gulin