Little Rock - USAFinished

Predictions graded

Yuta Shimizu #363Japan1Bernard Tomic #194Australia2

Sets 6-4 · 6-7 · 5-7Wed 27 May 2026, 17:53 Predictions gradedSecond RoundHard

Predictions4–267%

Edges0–10%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageBernard Tomic · 169 places

Yuta Shimizu

Japan

Born 9 June 1999. Career-high singles ranking No. 180 came on 24 February 2025. Public results and finals data are concentrated on hard courts.

Current ranking: #363
Peak ranking: #180 · 2025
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 163 cm

Bernard Tomic

Australia

Born 21 October 1992. Career-high singles ranking No. 17 came on 11 January 2016. His recent public match activity remains centered on Challenger hard courts.

Current ranking: #194
Peak ranking: #17 · 2016
Current age: 33
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 26 May 2026, 12:16 · Europe/Bucharest

Shimizu holds a narrow edge over Tomic thanks to a straight-set opener, better recent hard-court form, and a 1-0 H2H record.

The match is priced evenly at 1.85, offering minimal value, and no other betting markets are available.

Context

Shimizu beat Keegan Smith 7-5, 6-3 in the first round on May 25.
- Tomic needed three sets (3-6, 6-4, 6-4) to beat Blaise Bicknell on the same day.
- The match is on May 27, giving both players one day of rest, but Tomic spent more time on court.
Shimizu is 8-3 on hard courts since late March, including wins over top-200 opponents Sho Shimabukuro and August Holmgren.
- Tomic is 5-5 in his last 10 matches, with losses to Alafia Ayeni (ranked 432) and Marat Sharipov (374).
- Shimizu's only recent losses came against players ranked inside the top 230.
Tomic's career ace rate is 9.1 per match, compared to Shimizu's 3.9.
- Tomic wins 71.8% of first-serve points on hard courts; Shimizu wins 67.7%.
- Tomic has a 57% career tiebreak win rate, showing he can handle tight sets.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85
The read
Shimizu's superior recent hard-court form, H2H dominance, and lighter workload in the current tournament give him a moderate edge over Tomic.
- Shimizu leads H2H 1-0, winning 6-1 ret. on hard in 2024 with dominant serve stats (85% first-serve points won, 67% return points won).
- Shimizu's recent form: 8-3 in last 11 matches on hard, including wins over top-200 opponents (Shimabukuro, Holmgren) and a straight-set opener in Little Rock.
- Tomic's recent form: 5-5 in last 10, with a three-set opener in Little Rock and losses to lower-ranked players (Ayeni, Sharipov).
- Shimizu holds a surface edge: career 61.9% win rate on hard vs Tomic's 56%, and 13-10 in 2026 vs Tomic's 7-7.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostYuta ShimizuEstimated chance58%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match lengths and tiebreak tendencies point to a match likely exceeding 21.5 games, even in a straight-set scenario.
- Shimizu's last 5 matches averaged 22.6 total games; Tomic's last 5 averaged 22.4.
- Both players have a high rate of tiebreaks: Shimizu 56% career, Tomic 57% career.
- In their only H2H, the match ended early due to retirement, but the first set was competitive (6-1 before retirement).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' serving ability and recent set scores, making over 9.5 games probable.
- Shimizu's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 1-6, 3-6, 7-6, 6-0 (average 9.8 games).
- Tomic's last 5 first sets: 3-6, 2-6, 3-6, 1-6, 6-3 (average 8.6 games, but 3 of 5 went over 9.5).
- Both players have strong serve hold rates on hard: Shimizu 68% first-serve points won, Tomic 72%.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Shimizu's trend of winning first sets recently, combined with Tomic's slow starts, suggests a slight edge for Shimizu in set 1.
- Shimizu has won the first set in 7 of his last 10 matches, including his Little Rock opener.
- Tomic lost the first set in his Little Rock opener and in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Shimizu's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonYuta ShimizuEstimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' tiebreak frequencies and competitive recent sets, a tiebreak is more likely than not.
- Shimizu has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 10 matches; Tomic in 3 of his last 10.
- Both have high career tiebreak win percentages (Shimizu 56%, Tomic 57%), indicating frequent tiebreaks.
- In their H2H, the first set was 6-1, but the match was cut short, so limited data.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Tomic's high ace rate should push the total over 8.5, though Shimizu's return ability keeps confidence low.
- Tomic averages 9.1 aces per match career; Shimizu averages 3.9.
- In their H2H, Tomic hit 2 aces in a shortened match; Shimizu hit 2.
- Tomic's ace rate is significantly higher, but Shimizu's return stats (42% return points won) may limit Tomic's ace count.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 8.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages slightly exceed 5.5, but the margin is thin, warranting low confidence.
- Shimizu averages 3.2 double faults per match; Tomic averages 2.4.
- In their H2H, Shimizu had 1 double fault, Tomic had 3 in a shortened match.
- Combined career double fault rates suggest around 5.6 per match on average.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance52%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-1 ret.Yuta Shimizu#363vBernard Tomic#194May 30, 2024

1 total meetings

Yuta Shimizu

9W 6L

7-6(8) 7-6(5)#284Andres Martin

6-1 2-6 6-3#763Evan Zhu

6-3 6-0#103Sho Shimabukuro

7-6(6) 6-2#670Yusuke Takahashi

6-0 6-1—Yuxiang Tian

7-6(6) 6-4#156August Holmgren

0-6 7-6(6) 6-4#103Sho Shimabukuro

6-7(2) 7-5 ret.#312Yasutaka Uchiyama

6-3 6-2#328Taro Daniel

6-2 7-6(2)#459Jake Delaney

2-6 6-3 6-1#374Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-2 6-3#760Ben Jones

7-5 6-3#335Andre Ilagan

6-3 6-4#227Harry Wendelken

7-5 3-6 6-1#207Yu Hsiou Hsu

Bernard Tomic

6W 9L

3-6 6-4 6-4#316Blaise Bicknell

6-2 6-4#238Federico Cina

3-6 7-5 6-3#139Moez Echargui

6-1 7-5#206Kimmer Coppejans

6-3 6-2#572Aziz Ouakaa

7-6(3) 7-6(3)#432Alafia Ayeni

6-2 6-4#374Marat Sharipov (RUS)

6-3 3-0 ret.#169Nicolas Mejia

6-3 4-6 6-4#184Borna Gojo

4-6 6-3 6-2#341Gijs Brouwer

7-6(6) 6-3#586Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros

6-3 6-3#103Sho Shimabukuro

6-3 6-2—Krish Arora

6-1 6-3#291Antoine Ghibaudo

3-6 6-4 6-3#98Rinky Hijikata