Ronald Hohmann #1391United States22 – 1Murphy Cassone #264United States1

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.18

The read

Cassone's superior ranking, hard-court pedigree, and fresher physical state give him a clear edge over the qualifier Hohmann.

• Cassone ranking 264 vs Hohmann 1391, massive gap in level.
• Cassone career hard-court win pct 58% (60 wins), Hohmann 53% (44 wins) but at lower tier.
• Cassone last 5 matches: 3 wins vs top-300 opponents, Hohmann last 5: 3 wins vs opponents ranked 417+.
• Hohmann coming off two qualifier wins in 2 days, Cassone fresh with no qualifying workload.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Cassone's ability to dominate on serve and Hohmann's potential fatigue from qualifying suggest a relatively quick match under 21.5 games.

• Cassone's last 5 wins averaged 17.8 total games, Hohmann's last 5 wins averaged 21.6 total games.
• Hohmann's two qualifier wins: 12 and 15 games, but against weaker opponents; Cassone is a step up.
• Cassone's serve dominance (71% first-serve win) can produce quick holds and short sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Cassone's ability to win comfortably and Hohmann's struggles against higher-ranked opponents support a -3.5 game handicap.

• Cassone's last 5 wins: average game margin +5.6 (won 12.4 games, lost 6.8).
• Hohmann's last 5 losses: average game margin -4.8 (won 7.2 games, lost 12.0).
• Cassone's break-point conversion 42% vs Hohmann's save rate 58% suggests multiple breaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Cassone's efficient first sets and Hohmann's vulnerability early in matches suggest a first set under 9.5 games.

• Cassone's last 5 first sets won: 6-3, 6-2, 6-4, 6-3, 6-2 (avg 8.4 games).
• Hohmann's last 5 first sets: 6-3, 2-6, 4-6, 6-2, 2-6 (avg 9.2 games).
• Cassone's strong serve can produce quick holds, limiting total games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Cassone's strong serving and high first-set win rate should allow him to start fast against a potentially fatigued Hohmann.

• Cassone first-set win conversion 86% career, Hohmann 85% but against weaker opposition.
• Cassone won first set in 4 of last 5 wins, Hohmann dropped first set in 2 of last 5 matches.
• Cassone serve stats: 64% first serve, 71% win on first serve, Hohmann 58% first serve, 68% win.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Cassone's superior serve and return stats, combined with Hohmann's heavy recent schedule, make a straight-sets win likely.

• Cassone won 7 of last 10 matches in straight sets when victorious.
• Hohmann lost in straight sets in 3 of last 5 defeats, including to players ranked 375 and 674.
• Cassone's first-serve win rate 71% vs Hohmann's 58% first-serve percentage creates break opportunities.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Cassone's straight-sets trend and Hohmann's poor deciding-set record point to a match finishing in two sets.

• Cassone's last 5 wins: 4 in straight sets; Hohmann's last 5 wins: 3 in straight sets.
• Hohmann's deciding-set win rate is only 46% career, Cassone's is 54%.
• Cassone's break-point save rate 64% vs Hohmann's 58% reduces chance of extended sets.