FranceATP Roland GarrosFinished

Predictions graded

Thanasi Kokkinakis #854Australia3Terence Atmane #51France2

Sets 6-7 · 6-2 · 4-6 · 6-3 · 7-5Mon 25 May 2026, 11:33 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions5–363%

Edges4–267%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageTerence Atmane · 803 places

Thanasi Kokkinakis

Australia

Reached a career-high No. 65 in November 2023. ATP bio lists hard and clay as his favourite surfaces. His ranking slide to No. 854 followed a long injury-hit stretch and he is back in Paris on a protected ranking.

Current ranking: #854
Peak ranking: #65 · 2023
Current age: 30
Preferred surface: Hard / Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Terence Atmane

France

Broke into the Top 100 in August 2025 and reached a career-high No. 41 in April 2026. Left-handed with hard court listed as his preferred surface.

Current ranking: #51
Peak ranking: #41 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Left handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 24 May 2026, 20:05 · Europe/Bucharest

Atmane's superior recent form and clay pedigree give him the edge over an injury-returning Kokkinakis, but the Aussie's resilience should keep the match tight.

Value lies in Kokkinakis +4.5 games, over 3.5 sets, and over 37.5 total games.

Context

Kokkinakis underwent pectoral surgery in February 2025 and missed over a year of tour-level competition.
- He entered Roland Garros via protected ranking, with only two matches since January 2026—both in May 2026 against players ranked outside the top 280.
- No recent best-of-five-set matches since January 2025, raising questions about his endurance in a Grand Slam format.
Atmane beat Zizou Bergs (ranked 38) 6-3, 6-4 in Rome qualifying in May 2026.
- He defeated Ugo Humbert (ranked 34) 7-6, 7-6 in Barcelona in April 2026.
- In March 2026, he beat Felix Auger Aliassime (ranked 5) 6-3, 1-6, 6-3 in Miami.
- Kokkinakis's last top-50 win was against Sebastian Korda (ranked 46) in January 2026.
The only prior meeting was on clay in Rome qualifying in May 2024.
- Atmane won 7-5, 7-6(5), saving all break points faced.
- Kokkinakis had 0% break point conversion in that match.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Atmane's superior recent form against higher-ranked opponents and Kokkinakis's injury layoff give Atmane a clear edge, supported by his H2H win on clay.
- Atmane has a 4-6 clay record in 2026, but all losses are to top-25 opponents; Kokkinakis is 2-0 on clay in 2026 but against lower-ranked players (283, 291).
- Atmane's recent form includes wins over top-40 players (Bergs, Humbert, Auger Aliassime) and close losses to top-25 players (Fils, Etcheverry), while Kokkinakis's last top-50 win was in Jan 2026 (Korda).
- H2H: Atmane won their only meeting 7-5, 7-6(5) on clay in 2024, with better break-point conversion (17% vs 0% for Kokkinakis).
- Kokkinakis is returning from a pectoral injury and surgery (Feb 2025), with only two matches since Jan 2026, both in May 2026 on clay.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostTerence AtmaneEstimated chance65%

Games2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given Kokkinakis's recent pattern of long matches and the Bo5 format, the total games are likely to exceed 36.5.
- Kokkinakis's last five matches have averaged 32.6 games, with three going over 36.5 games.
- Atmane's recent matches against top-50 opponents have averaged 29.8 games, but against lower-ranked players, matches tend to be shorter.
- Their only H2H match had 25 games in two sets, but Bo5 format and Kokkinakis's comeback ability suggest longer matches.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 36.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Kokkinakis is expected to keep the match close, covering a +5.5 game handicap.
- Kokkinakis's recent losses have been close: 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(3) vs Korda; 6-7, 6-3, 3-6, 7-5, 6-3 vs Draper.
- Atmane's wins are often tight: 7-6, 7-6 vs Humbert; 6-4, 7-5 vs Kecmanovic.
- Kokkinakis's fighting spirit and Atmane's occasional lapses suggest a close match.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonThanasi Kokkinakis +5.5Estimated chance60%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83
The read
Kokkinakis's tendency to push matches to longer sets and the Bo5 format make over 3.5 sets likely.
- Kokkinakis's last two Bo5 matches went to 5 and 4 sets respectively.
- Atmane has played only one Bo5 match in recent data (vs Tiafoe, 3 sets), but his clay matches often go to deciding sets.
- Kokkinakis's comeback rate is 27%, indicating he often extends matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.33
The read
Atmane's tendency to start strong and Kokkinakis's slow starts post-injury make Atmane the favorite for the first set.
- Atmane has won the first set in 6 of his last 10 matches, including against top-40 players (Bergs, Humbert, Auger Aliassime).
- Kokkinakis lost the first set in his last two matches (vs Ribecai and Michalski) before coming back, and his first-set win rate in recent form is 40% (2/5).
- Atmane's first-set win conversion rate is 85% career, indicating strong starts.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonTerence AtmaneEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have high tiebreak frequencies, making a tiebreak in this match likely.
- Kokkinakis has played a tiebreak in 4 of his last 5 matches.
- Atmane has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 10 matches.
- Their only H2H match featured a tiebreak.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance60%

Head-to-Head

0-1 (1 meetings)

L7-5 7-6(5)Thanasi Kokkinakis#854vTerence Atmane#51May 6, 2024

1 total meetings

Thanasi Kokkinakis

12W 3L

6-7(2) 6-3 6-0#283Michele Ribecai

7-6(3) 6-3#291Daniel Michalski

3-6 6-3 7-6(3)#46Sebastian Korda

6-7(3) 6-3 3-6 7-5 6-3#74Jack Draper

3-6 6-3 6-3 7-6(5)#142Roman Safiullin

7-5 4-6 7-6(4)#25Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-3 3-6 6-3#176Yoshihito Nishioka

6-7(6) 6-3 7-5#107Matteo Berrettini

6-1 4-6 7-6(14)#6Ben Shelton

6-1 6-1#102Rinky Hijikata

6-4 7-6(3)#125Tristan Schoolkate

6-2 6-1#465Hikaru Shiraishi

6-2 7-6(4)#312Philip Sekulic

6-3 6-4#477Christian Langmo

6-1 6-4#82Stefanos Tsitsipas

Terence Atmane

7W 8L

6-2 7-6(4)#25Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-7(13) 6-1 6-4#110Titouan Droguet

7-6(1) 6-3#12Flavio Cobolli

6-3 6-4#38Zizou Bergs

6-3 7-6(2)#3Alexander Zverev

7-6(3) 7-6(5)#34Ugo Humbert

6-4 7-5#47Miomir Kecmanovic

4-6 6-4 7-6(7)#19Arthur Fils

3-6 6-3 6-2#25Tomas Martin Etcheverry

6-1 6-4#49Ethan Quinn

6-4 1-6 6-4#21Frances Tiafoe

6-3 1-6 6-3#5Felix Auger Aliassime

7-6(4) 6-3#24Arthur Rinderknech

6-4 6-2#65Daniel Altmaier

6-4 6-4#229Darwin Blanch