Toby Samuel #159United Kingdom22 – 1Gonzalo Bueno #185Peru1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Samuel's superior recent form, strong serve metrics, and higher career win rate on a surface where Bueno has been inconsistent recently give him a moderate edge.

• Samuel has won 10 of his last 15 matches, including a 7-6 6-2 win over world No. 112 Martin Damm in Roland Garros qualifying on 18 May 2026.
• Samuel holds a 74.6% career win rate and a 63% tiebreak win rate, with a 92% first-set win conversion.
• Bueno is a clay specialist (159 career clay wins) but has lost 3 of his last 5 matches on clay, including a retirement loss on 16 April 2026.
• Samuel's serve stats (70% first-serve points won, 64.8% break points saved) give him an edge in holding serve on clay.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Recent match data for both players indicates a trend toward longer matches, supporting a total games over 21.5.

• Samuel's last 5 matches have averaged 22.6 total games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Bueno's last 5 completed matches have averaged 22.4 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5 games.
• Both players have shown the ability to extend sets, with Samuel playing 3 tiebreaks in his last 15 matches and Bueno playing 2.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.83

The read

Both players have been involved in competitive first sets recently, making over 9.5 games likely.

• Samuel's last 5 first sets have averaged 10.2 games, with 4 of 5 exceeding 9.5 games.
• Bueno's last 5 first sets have averaged 9.8 games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 9.5 games.
• Samuel's first set against Damm went to a tiebreak (13 games), and Bueno's first set against Bax was 6-0 (6 games), but his previous 4 first sets all had at least 10 games.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

If Samuel wins, he is likely to do so by a margin of at least 3 games, but the low confidence reflects the uncertainty of the match outcome.

• Samuel has covered a -2.5 game handicap in 3 of his last 5 wins, with an average margin of victory of 4.2 games in those wins.
• Bueno has lost by more than 2.5 games in 2 of his last 5 losses.
• Samuel's overall game dominance in recent wins (e.g., 6-2, 6-2 vs. Mrva) supports the handicap.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Samuel's strong serve and high ace rate, combined with Bueno's low ace output, make over 5.5 total aces likely, driven primarily by Samuel.

• Samuel averages 5.8 aces per match (career ace rate 5.8%), with 654 career aces in 173 matches.
• Bueno averages 1.2 aces per match (career ace rate 1.2%), with 240 career aces in 290 matches.
• Samuel's height (191 cm) and serve power give him a clear ace advantage, and he has hit 6+ aces in 3 of his last 5 matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

The combined double fault average is just above 5.5, but the low confidence reflects the inconsistency in recent matches.

• Samuel averages 2.9 double faults per match (career double fault rate 2.9%), with 329 career double faults in 173 matches.
• Bueno averages 3.3 double faults per match (career double fault rate 3.3%), with 644 career double faults in 290 matches.
• Combined, they average around 6.2 double faults per match, but recent form shows variability.