Thomas Faurel vs Jay Clarke: result, stats and head-to-head

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36
The read
Clarke's superior ranking, recent form, and serve/return structural edge on clay give him a clear advantage in this best-of-3 qualifying match.
- Clarke holds a significant ranking edge (#199 vs #382) and a 58.4% career win rate over 635 matches.
- Clarke's recent form includes a dominant 6-2, 6-2 win over #131 Sweeny in Q1, while Faurel's last 5 matches show 2 wins and 3 losses against lower-ranked opponents.
- Clarke has a stronger serve profile: 4.5% ace rate vs 2.3%, and wins 68.3% of first-serve points vs Faurel's 63.8%.
- Clarke's career clay win percentage (180-107, ~62.7%) exceeds Faurel's (48-43, ~52.7%), and Clarke has more high-level clay experience.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostJay ClarkeEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Given both players' tendency for straight-set outcomes and Clarke's dominance in recent wins, a relatively quick match under 21.5 games is plausible.
- Both players won their Q1 matches in straight sets with game totals of 22 (Faurel) and 16 (Clarke).
- Clarke's last 5 wins have all been in straight sets, with an average of 16.8 games per match.
- Faurel's recent losses have often been one-sided, with 4 of his last 6 losses coming in straight sets and an average of 17.3 games.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Clarke's ability to win comfortably and Faurel's tendency to lose heavily in defeats make a -3.5 game handicap for Clarke a reasonable outcome.
- Clarke covered a -3.5 game handicap in his Q1 win (12-4 games).
- Faurel's recent losses have often been by wide margins, including 6-2, 6-1 and 6-0, 6-3 defeats.
- Clarke's average game margin in his last 5 wins is +6.8 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostJay Clarke -3.5Estimated chance52%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Clarke's tendency to start strong and Faurel's vulnerability in early sets make a first set under 9.5 games a plausible outcome.
- Clarke's Q1 first set was 6-2, and his average first-set game count in recent wins is 8.4.
- Faurel's recent first sets have been mixed, but he lost first sets 6-2, 6-1, and 6-3 in three of his last five matches.
- Clarke's strong first-set performance (86% conversion) often leads to early breaks and quick sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Clarke's high first-set win conversion and dominant Q1 start suggest he is likely to take the opening set against Faurel, who has been less convincing early in recent matches.
- Clarke has an 86% first-set win conversion rate in his career, indicating strong starts.
- Faurel's first-set win conversion is 82%, but his recent first-set performances include losses in 3 of his last 5 matches.
- Clarke won his Q1 first set 6-2 against a higher-ranked opponent, while Faurel needed a tiebreak to win his first set against #225 Olivieri.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJay ClarkeEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The pattern of straight-set results for both players in recent matches suggests a high likelihood of a two-set match.
- Clarke's last 5 wins were all in straight sets.
- Faurel's last 6 matches have seen only one go to three sets.
- Both players' Q1 matches were straight-set affairs.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced
The read
Clarke's recent straight-set trend and Faurel's vulnerability in non-competitive losses support a 2-0 victory for Clarke, though the probability is tempered by Faurel's home wildcard motivation.
- Clarke has won his last 5 completed matches in straight sets.
- Faurel has lost 4 of his last 6 matches in straight sets.
- Clarke's Q1 win was a dominant 6-2, 6-2, while Faurel's was a tighter 7-6, 6-3.
BetBugs · Set BettinglostJay Clarke 2-0Estimated chance50%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Clarke's ability to win sets comfortably and the low tiebreak frequency in his recent matches suggest a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Clarke's recent matches have featured few tiebreaks: only 1 in his last 10 matches.
- Faurel played a tiebreak in his Q1 match, but his overall tiebreak frequency is moderate.
- Clarke's dominant serving and return game on clay reduces the likelihood of tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Clarke's superior serve power and Faurel's modest ace output make a combined total over 5.5 aces likely in a match that could see at least 18 games.
- Clarke averages 4.5 aces per 100 serves, while Faurel averages only 2.3.
- In best-of-3 clay matches, Clarke's ace rate typically translates to 3-5 aces per match.
- Faurel's low ace rate suggests he may contribute 1-2 aces, pushing the combined total over 5.5.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players having above-average double fault rates, a combined total over 5.5 is probable in a match expected to last around 20 games.
- Clarke has a 3.4% double fault rate, and Faurel has a 3.1% rate.
- In a typical best-of-3 clay match with ~20 games, each player might serve 60-80 points, leading to 2-3 double faults each.
- Both players' double fault rates are above the tour average, increasing the likelihood of combined double faults exceeding 5.5.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Thomas Faurel #382France2Jay Clarke #199United Kingdom0

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Thomas Faurel

Jay Clarke

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Jay Clarke

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Result0 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Thomas Faurel

Jay Clarke