Maja Chwalinska #116Poland22 – 0Carole Monnet #195France0

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.10

The read

Chwalinska's superior recent form, clay-court pedigree, and higher ranking give her a clear edge, supported by her 11-2 record in her last 13 completed matches.

• Chwalinska is 20-9 in 2026, including a WTA 125 title on clay in Oeiras (April 2026) and a career-high ranking of No. 113 in May 2026.
• Monnet is 8-14 in 2026 and has lost 5 of her last 7 matches, with only one win over a top-150 opponent in that span.
• Chwalinska has a 65.9% career win rate on clay (164-84) and is 11-5 on clay in 2026; Monnet is 7-8 on clay in 2026 with a 55% career win rate.
• In the last 15 matches, Chwalinska has won 11, including dominant wins over top-100 players (Haddad Maia, Waltert), while Monnet has won only 5, with losses to players ranked outside the top 150.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches and H2H history suggest a relatively quick match, with Chwalinska's dominance likely keeping total games low.

• Chwalinska's last 10 wins have averaged 17.2 total games per match, with 7 of those finishing under 20.5 games.
• Monnet's last 5 losses have averaged 17.6 total games, with 4 of those under 20.5 games.
• In their 3 H2H matches, total games were 16, 16, and 20, all under 20.5.
• Chwalinska has won 8 of her last 15 matches by a margin of 6+ games, indicating potential for a straight-sets win with few games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Chwalinska's dominant wins and Monnet's heavy defeats suggest Chwalinska can win by at least 4 games.

• Chwalinska has covered a -3.5 game handicap in 8 of her last 10 wins.
• Monnet has failed to cover a +3.5 game handicap in 7 of her last 10 losses.
• Chwalinska's average margin of victory in her last 10 wins is 6.2 games.
• In their only clay H2H, Monnet won by 7 games, but current form strongly favors Chwalinska.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Chwalinska's tendency for dominant first sets and Monnet's vulnerability early could lead to a quick first set under 8.5 games.

• Chwalinska has won the first set 6-0, 6-1, or 6-2 in 7 of her last 15 matches.
• Monnet has lost the first set 6-1, 6-0, or 6-2 in 5 of her last 15 matches.
• In their only clay H2H, the first set was 6-1.
• Chwalinska's average games lost in first sets of her last 10 wins is 2.1.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Chwalinska's dominant first-set performances in recent matches and Monnet's slow starts make a Chwalinska first-set win likely.

• Chwalinska has won the first set in 12 of her last 15 matches, including 6-0, 6-1, or 6-2 sets in 7 of those.
• Monnet has lost the first set in 8 of her last 15 matches, often by wide margins (6-1, 6-0, 6-2).
• Chwalinska's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating she closes out matches when leading early.
• In their only clay H2H (2023), Monnet won 6-1, 6-3, but Chwalinska's current form is significantly better than that period.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.36

The read

Chwalinska's strong straight-sets record and Monnet's struggles in extended matches point to a 2-0 victory for Chwalinska.

• Chwalinska has won in straight sets in 9 of her last 11 victories.
• Monnet has lost in straight sets in 6 of her last 8 defeats.
• Chwalinska's first-set win conversion rate of 88% suggests she rarely drops a set after winning the first.
• Monnet's deciding-set win rate is only 46% career, and she has lost her last 3 three-set matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

The match is likely to end in straight sets given Chwalinska's efficiency and Monnet's struggles in deciders.

• Chwalinska has played 3 sets in only 3 of her last 15 matches.
• Monnet has played 3 sets in 6 of her last 15 matches, but has lost 4 of those.
• Chwalinska's straight-sets win rate in 2026 is 82% (14/17 wins).
• Monnet's straight-sets loss rate in 2026 is 67% (10/15 losses).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The match is expected to be relatively one-sided, reducing the likelihood of a tiebreak.

• Chwalinska has played only 2 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches, winning both.
• Monnet has played 5 tiebreaks in her last 15 matches, but only 2 in her last 10.
• Chwalinska's matches average 19.2 total games, and Monnet's 19.8, indicating few extended sets.
• In their 3 H2H matches, there were no tiebreaks.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, and clay further diminishes ace potential, making under 5.5 aces likely.

• Chwalinska averages 0.8 aces per match (career ace rate 0.8%), with only 214 aces in 408 matches.
• Monnet averages 1.8 aces per match (career ace rate 1.8%), but her double-fault rate is high (8.5%).
• In their 3 H2H matches, total aces were 6 (Monnet 6, Chwalinska 0), but Chwalinska's current serve is not ace-oriented.
• Clay courts typically reduce ace counts, and both players rely more on rallying than big serving.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Monnet's high double-fault rate, combined with Chwalinska's occasional lapses, should push total double faults over 7.5.

• Monnet has a career double-fault rate of 8.5%, averaging over 5 double faults per match in her career.
• Chwalinska has a double-fault rate of 3.3%, but in pressure situations on clay, both can be prone to errors.
• In their H2H, Monnet had 11 double faults in 3 matches (3.7 per match), and Chwalinska had 3.
• Monnet's recent matches show 4+ double faults in 6 of her last 10 matches with available stats.