Mert Alkaya vs Georgii Kravchenko: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Alkaya's higher ranking, superior recent form (10-5 vs 8-7), and strong first-set conversion give him a moderate edge on home clay.
- Alkaya ranking 324 vs Kravchenko 556, significant gap at Challenger level.
- Alkaya 2026 clay: 1-1 (small sample), but career clay win% 48% vs Kravchenko 55% (193-158).
- Alkaya last 15: 10-5, strong form with wins over top-300 opponents; Kravchenko last 15: 8-7, less consistent.
- Alkaya first-set win conversion 87% vs Kravchenko 84%, slight edge in starting strong.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMert AlkayaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With both players showing similar competitive metrics and a tendency for close sets, total games could exceed 21.5, though low confidence due to variability.
- Alkaya last 15 matches: avg total games 21.3, with 8 of 15 over 21.5.
- Kravchenko last 15 matches: avg total games 21.1, with 7 of 15 over 21.5.
- Both players have similar break-point save rates (55.4% vs 58.5%) and convert rates (~45%), suggesting competitive games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Alkaya's slightly higher game-winning margin and Kravchenko's tendency to lose by multiple games suggest a handicap cover, but low confidence due to match variability.
- Alkaya's average games won per match last 15: 12.5, Kravchenko's: 11.8.
- Alkaya's recent wins often by comfortable margins (e.g., 6-1 6-4, 6-3 7-5).
- Kravchenko's losses often by 3+ games (e.g., 6-3 6-4, 6-2 6-3).
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMert Alkaya -2.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Second sets have trended slightly over 9.5 for both, and with no dominant server, a competitive set is likely.
- Alkaya last 15 second sets: avg 9.4 games, 8 of 15 over 9.5.
- Kravchenko last 15 second sets: avg 9.2 games, 7 of 15 over 9.5.
- Both players have similar break-point dynamics, leading to potential extended sets.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance53%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Slight lean toward a longer first set given both players' recent first-set game averages near 9.5, but low confidence due to lack of clear edge.
- Alkaya last 15 first sets: avg 9.3 games, 7 of 15 over 9.5.
- Kravchenko last 15 first sets: avg 9.1 games, 6 of 15 over 9.5.
- No H2H data, but both have similar serve/return profiles, suggesting tight opening sets.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Alkaya's high first-set conversion rate and recent trend of starting strong support a set-one win, though Kravchenko's similar rate keeps confidence medium.
- Alkaya first-set win conversion 87% career, Kravchenko 84%.
- Alkaya won first set in 10 of last 15 matches; Kravchenko in 8 of last 15.
- Alkaya's serve/return stats slightly better: first-serve win% 65.8% vs 68%, but return points won 43% vs 42%.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMert AlkayaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Low ace rates and clay surface strongly suggest a low total ace count, with under 7.5 highly probable.
- Alkaya ace rate 5%, Kravchenko 4%, both low.
- Alkaya career aces per match ~2.3 (749/332), Kravchenko ~2.1 (1119/538).
- Clay surface reduces ace counts; both players rely on rallying.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While combined average is below 5.5, the clay surface and Kravchenko's higher double-fault rate could push the total over, though confidence is low.
- Alkaya double-fault rate 3.4%, Kravchenko 4.2%.
- Alkaya career double faults per match ~1.5 (505/332), Kravchenko ~2.2 (1174/538).
- Combined average ~3.7 per match, but clay rallies can increase pressure and errors.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Mert Alkaya #382Türkiye2Georgii Kravchenko #551Ukraine0

Player Profiles

Mert Alkaya

Georgii Kravchenko

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Mert Alkaya

Mert Alkaya

Mert Alkaya 2-1

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Mert Alkaya

Georgii Kravchenko