FranceWTA Roland GarrosFinished

Predictions graded

Maja Chwalinska #116Poland2Alice Rame #197France0

Sets 6-0 · 6-3Mon 18 May 2026, 10:00 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions8–0100%

Edges6–0100%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageMaja Chwalinska · 81 places

Maja Chwalinska

Poland

Left-handed Pole whose record is strongest on clay. WTA notes a past depression-related break from competition, and her comeback carried her to a career-high No. 113 on 2026-05-04.

Current ranking: #116
Peak ranking: #113 · 2026
Current age: 24
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Left handed
Height: 164 cm

Alice Rame

France

French right-hander with a clearly clay-based resume: her listed singles titles are all on clay, and that surface accounts for the bulk of her wins. Her 2025 clay season was the main driver behind her move into the top 200.

Current ranking: #197
Peak ranking: #191
Current age: 28
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: —

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 18 May 2026, 12:04 · Europe/Bucharest

Maja Chwalinska's superior clay-court form, dominant H2H win, and Alice Rame's three-match losing streak make the Pole a heavy favorite.

The best betting angle is the under on total games, as Chwalinska's efficient, break-heavy style should produce a quick straight-sets victory.

Context

Chwalinska is 10-5 on clay in 2026, with a title run in Oeiras that included a 6-0, 6-4 win over No. 78 Haddad Maia and a 6-1, 6-0 win over No. 93 Waltert.
- In her last five completed matches, Chwalinska has won four, dropping only one set and losing just 13 games across those wins.
- Rame has lost her last three matches in straight sets, winning only 19 games total, and her 2026 clay record is an even 8-8.
- Chwalinska's recent wins have come against higher-ranked opponents, while Rame's losses include defeats to players ranked outside the top 300.
Chwalinska won 63% of return points in that match, breaking Rame's serve seven times in nine opportunities.
- Rame won only 43% of return points and was broken seven times, highlighting her difficulty handling Chwalinska's return pressure.
- The match lasted only 17 games, with Chwalinska winning the last seven games of the match.
- Both players have similar serve and return stats in 2026, suggesting the same dynamic could unfold.
In 2025, Rame went 60-27 on clay with deep runs at W75 Caserta and Rio 125; in 2026, she is 8-8 on the surface.
- Her last three losses have come against players ranked No. 302, No. 182, and No. 119, all in straight sets.
- Rame's serve has been vulnerable: she has been broken multiple times in each of those losses, and her double fault rate remains high at 3.8 per match.
- She has not beaten a top-200 player on clay since April 2026, and her only wins in the last month came against opponents ranked outside the top 240.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 5

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Match WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Maja Chwalinska

1.07fair 1.39

BetBugs 72% · Market 93.5%

0.0ppshort

Chwalinska's dominant clay form and H2H win justify a high probability, but the odds overstate her chances, leaving no value.

Set 1 WinnerwonUncertainty band: Strong lean

Maja Chwalinska

1.12fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 89.3%

0.0ppshort

Chwalinska's strong first-set record and Rame's recent struggles make the Pole a clear favorite, though the odds overstate her probability.

Total SetswonUncertainty band: Lean

Under 2.5

1.18fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 84.7%

0.0ppshort

The model's estimated probability for under 2.5 sets is significantly lower than the implied probability, indicating no value.

Set BettingwonUncertainty band: Lean

Maja Chwalinska 2-0

1.29fair 1.67

BetBugs 60% · Market 77.5%

0.0ppshort

Chwalinska's high straight-set win rate and Rame's poor form suggest a 2-0 win, but the model estimate is below the implied probability, indicating no value.

Game HandicapwonUncertainty band: Lean

Maja Chwalinska -3.5

1.25fair 1.72

BetBugs 58% · Market 80%

0.0ppshort

Chwalinska's average winning margin and H2H dominance support covering -3.5 games, but the odds heavily favor her, offering no value.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.07
The read
Chwalinska's superior clay-court pedigree, dominant H2H win, and stronger recent form against better opposition give her a clear edge in this Roland Garros qualifying match.
- Chwalinska is 10-5 on clay in 2026, including an Oeiras title; Rame is 8-8 on clay this season and on a 3-match losing streak.
- Chwalinska won their only H2H meeting 6-4 6-1 on clay in 2024, dominating return points (63% won) and converting 7/9 break points.
- Chwalinska's recent form (last 5 matches): 4-1 with wins over top-100 opponents (Haddad Maia, Waltert); Rame is 2-3 in her last 5, losing to lower-ranked players.
- Chwalinska's career clay win percentage is 65.8% vs. Rame's 59.1%; Chwalinska has a 56% deciding-set win rate vs. Rame's 51%.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonMaja ChwalinskaEstimated chance72%

Games3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.00
The read
Chwalinska's ability to dominate on clay, combined with Rame's poor form, points to a relatively quick match with fewer than 21 games.
- Chwalinska's last 5 wins have averaged 17.8 total games; Rame's last 5 losses averaged 18.2 total games.
- The H2H match had only 17 games (6-4 6-1).
- Chwalinska has won 6 of her last 10 matches in straight sets with a game differential of +5 or more.
BetBugs · Total GameswonUnder 20.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.25
The read
Chwalinska's ability to win by comfortable margins on clay, especially against out-of-form opponents, makes a -3.5 game handicap likely to cover.
- Chwalinska's average game margin in her last 5 wins: +6.2 games; Rame's average game margin in her last 5 losses: -5.4 games.
- The H2H match had a 7-game differential in Chwalinska's favor.
- Chwalinska has covered a -3.5 game handicap in 7 of her last 10 wins.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonMaja Chwalinska -3.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Chwalinska's aggressive returning and Rame's vulnerability on serve could lead to a one-sided first set with fewer than 10 games.
- Chwalinska's last 5 first-set scores: 6-3, 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, 6-1 (average 9.2 games).
- Rame's last 5 first-set scores: 4-6, 2-6, 2-6, 6-4, 4-1 ret. (average 8.6 games when completed).
- The H2H first set was 6-4 (10 games), but Chwalinska's current form suggests she can break early and control the set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%

Sets3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.12
The read
Chwalinska's strong start tendency and Rame's recent first-set struggles suggest the Pole will take the opening set, leveraging her return game on clay.
- Chwalinska has won the first set in 8 of her last 10 matches; Rame has lost the first set in 4 of her last 6.
- In their H2H, Chwalinska won the first set 6-4, breaking Rame's serve 4 times in the set.
- Chwalinska's first-set win conversion rate is 88% career, indicating she closes out matches well after winning the opener.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonMaja ChwalinskaEstimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.29
The read
Given Chwalinska's dominance in straight sets recently and Rame's inability to push matches to three sets, a 2-0 victory for the Pole is the most likely set outcome.
- Chwalinska has won 8 of her last 10 matches in straight sets; Rame has lost 7 of her last 10 in straight sets.
- In their H2H, Chwalinska won 2-0.
- Chwalinska's first-set win conversion is 88%, and she has a 56% deciding-set win rate, but she rarely needs a third set against lower-ranked opponents.
BetBugs · Set BettingwonMaja Chwalinska 2-0Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
With Chwalinska likely to win the first set and her high conversion rate, the match is expected to end in straight sets.
- Chwalinska has played 3-setters in only 2 of her last 10 matches; Rame has played 3-setters in 4 of her last 10.
- The H2H was a straight-set win for Chwalinska.
- Chwalinska's first-set win conversion rate of 88% suggests she rarely needs a third set after winning the opener.
BetBugs · Total SetswonUnder 2.5Estimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Given Chwalinska's tendency to win sets comfortably and the low tiebreak frequency for both players, a tiebreak is unlikely.
- Chwalinska's career tiebreak win rate is 53%; Rame's is 49%, but neither player frequently plays tiebreaks.
- In their last 10 matches combined, only 2 tiebreaks occurred (both involving Rame).
- Chwalinska's dominant first-set performances reduce the likelihood of tight sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance70%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
With both players having low ace rates and clay being a surface that neutralizes big serves, the total aces will likely stay under 5.5.
- Chwalinska averages 0.8 aces per match (career ace rate 0.8%); Rame averages 1.1 aces per match (career ace rate 1.1%).
- In their H2H, neither player recorded an ace (data not available, but low ace rates suggest few).
- Both players rely on rally tolerance and return skills on clay, reducing ace counts.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 5.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined double fault averages suggest a total around 7, but the high-stakes qualifying environment could push it slightly over 7.5.
- Chwalinska averages 3.3 double faults per match; Rame averages 3.8 per match.
- In their H2H, Chwalinska had 3 double faults and Rame had 4, totaling 7.
- Both players have double fault rates above 3% and will be under pressure in a Grand Slam qualifying match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 7.5Estimated chance52%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W6-4 6-1Maja Chwalinska#116vAlice Rame#197Jun 19, 2024

1 total meetings

Maja Chwalinska

10W 5L

6-3 ret.#353Federica Urgesi

4-6 6-3 6-2#181Jessika Ponchet

3-6 7-5 6-2#335Lisa Zaar

6-4 6-0#415Amandine Hesse

6-1 6-3#101Sinja Kraus

6-2 6-0#336Robin Montgomery

6-1 6-0#93Simona Waltert

6-0 6-4#78Beatriz Haddad Maia

3-6 6-2 6-4#127Kaitlin Quevedo

6-3 6-1#134Tamara Zidansek

6-7(1) 6-3 7-6(7)#134Tamara Zidansek

6-0 6-0—Ada Kumru

2-6 6-3 7-5#110Moyuka Uchijima

6-2 6-0#170Despina Papamichail

6-1 6-3#578Adelina Lachinova

Alice Rame

8W 7L

6-4 6-1#302Anouck Vrancken Peeters

2-6 6-1 6-3#182Claire Liu

6-2 6-2#119Maria Timofeeva

6-4 6-4#241Kathinka Von Deichmann

4-1 ret.#394Aurora Zantedeschi

6-1 7-5—Noelia Manta

2-6 7-5 6-1#182Claire Liu

6-0 6-3#431Rositsa Dencheva

6-0 1-6 6-3#295Anastasiia Sobolieva

2-6 7-6(3) 7-5#606Briana Szabo

7-5 6-4#446Tena Lukas

4-6 6-2 6-1#226Alice Tubello

6-4 4-6 6-4#481Alessandra Mazzola

6-4 6-1#846Francesca Gandolfi

7-6(7) 6-1—Unknown Player

Maja Chwalinska

Alice Rame

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 20.5

Maja Chwalinska

Maja Chwalinska

Under 2.5

Maja Chwalinska 2-0

Maja Chwalinska -3.5

Result1 of 1 landed

Games3 of 3 landed

Sets3 of 3 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Maja Chwalinska

Alice Rame