Kamil Majchrzak vs Camilo Ugo Carabelli: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Ugo Carabelli's superior current clay form and match fitness, combined with Majchrzak's knee-related inactivity since early April, make the Argentine the likely winner.
- Ugo Carabelli is 13-8 on clay in 2026 with wins over Khachanov and Monfils, while Majchrzak is 1-1 on clay this year and withdrew from multiple clay events in April due to a knee injury.
- Majchrzak's last match was a hard-court loss on 1 Apr 2026; Ugo Carabelli played a clay match as recently as 15 May 2026.
- Career clay win percentage: Ugo Carabelli 354-217 (62%), Majchrzak 248-142 (63.6%) – comparable, but Ugo Carabelli's recent clay volume and form give him the edge.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonCamilo Ugo CarabelliEstimated chance62%

Games2 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Given both players' tendency for tight, extended matches on clay and Majchrzak's potential to push sets despite rust, the total games should exceed 21.5.
- Ugo Carabelli's last 5 completed clay matches averaged 22.6 games; Majchrzak's last 5 matches (all surfaces) averaged 25.6 games.
- Both players have deciding-set win rates above 50% (Ugo Carabelli 60%, Majchrzak 51%), indicating competitive matches that often go deep.
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
Both players have been involved in tight opening sets recently, suggesting the first set will exceed 9.5 games.
- Ugo Carabelli's last 5 first sets on clay: 7-6, 6-4, 6-7, 6-3, 6-3 – average 9.8 games.
- Majchrzak's last 5 first sets (all surfaces): 6-7, 7-6, 6-7, 6-2, 4-6 – average 10.2 games.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Even if Majchrzak loses, his competitive record suggests he can keep the match within a 3.5-game handicap.
- Majchrzak's last 5 losses (all surfaces) were by an average margin of 5.2 games, but on clay his losses tend to be closer.
- Ugo Carabelli's last 5 wins on clay were by an average margin of 4.8 games, with two wins by only 3 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonKamil Majchrzak +3.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
While not as strong as the first-set trend, the second set has a slight lean toward exceeding 9.5 games based on recent patterns.
- Ugo Carabelli's last 5 second sets on clay: 6-4, 6-1, 4-6, 6-4, 6-3 – average 9.0 games, but 3 of 5 went over 9.5.
- Majchrzak's last 5 second sets: 6-3, 3-6, 6-1, 4-6, 6-3 – average 9.2 games, with 3 of 5 over 9.5.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Ugo Carabelli's recent pattern of strong starts on clay and Majchrzak's rustiness point to the Argentine taking the opening set.
- Ugo Carabelli has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 clay wins; Majchrzak's last first-set win on any surface was on 21 Mar 2026.
- Majchrzak's first-set win conversion rate is 87% career, but his recent lack of match play raises doubts about his ability to start fast.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostCamilo Ugo CarabelliEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
The high frequency of three-set matches in both players' recent records makes over 2.5 sets a likely outcome.
- In their last 15 matches, Ugo Carabelli has gone to a deciding set 7 times, Majchrzak 8 times.
- Both players have deciding-set win percentages above 50%, indicating they are competitive in tight matches.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
The clay surface and both players' moderate ace rates make a low total ace count likely, staying under 8.5.
- Ugo Carabelli's ace rate is 2.9% (career), Majchrzak's is 6.2% – combined average aces per match ~6-7 on clay.
- On clay, both players rely more on rallying than big serving; Ugo Carabelli averages under 3 aces per match, Majchrzak around 4-5.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of the match and both players' history of tiebreaks make at least one tiebreak likely.
- Ugo Carabelli has played a tiebreak in 5 of his last 15 matches; Majchrzak in 7 of his last 15.
- Both players have tiebreak win percentages around 53-54%, indicating they frequently reach tiebreaks in close sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
With a likely extended match, the total double faults should surpass 5.5, though the margin is slim.
- Ugo Carabelli's double fault rate is 3.4%, Majchrzak's is 2.9% – combined average double faults per match ~5-6.
- In longer matches, double fault counts tend to rise; both players have played multiple three-setters recently.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Kamil Majchrzak #76Poland1Camilo Ugo Carabelli #61Argentina2

Player Profiles

Kamil Majchrzak

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 21.5

Over 9.5

Over 2.5

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

Camilo Ugo Carabelli

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games2 of 4 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Kamil Majchrzak

Camilo Ugo Carabelli