Amit Vales #799Israel00 – 2Naoya Honda #767Japan2

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.90

The read

Vales holds a clear surface-fit edge on hard courts and a dominant H2H win, while his recent form against similar-level opponents is slightly stronger than Honda's.

• H2H: Vales won their only meeting 6-1 6-3 on clay in July 2025, dominating return points (56% won) and converting 67% of break points.
• Recent form (last 5): Vales 3-2 with wins over Kesarwani, Balsekar, Boogaard; Honda 2-3 with losses to Taguchi and Shepp.
• Surface edge: Vales is 84-43 career on hard (66% win rate) vs Honda 36-39 (48%); Vales has a 14-12 hard record in 2026, Honda 5-6.
• Serve/return: Vales has a higher return points won (43% vs 39%) and break point conversion (46% vs 40%), while Honda's ace rate (4.1%) is double Vales' (1.9%).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Despite Vales' H2H dominance, both players' recent match lengths and comparable break point resilience point to a moderately competitive match exceeding 21.5 games.

• Vales' last 5 matches averaged 20.6 games; Honda's averaged 20.4 games.
• Both players have similar break point save rates (57% each), suggesting potential for tight games.
• Honda's recent matches include two three-setters, indicating he can extend matches.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Recent first-set scores for both players hover around 9-10 games, and neither has a dominant serve to consistently produce short sets.

• Vales' last 5 first sets: 6-2, 2-6, 6-2, 3-6, 5-7 (avg 9.6 games).
• Honda's last 5 first sets: 7-6, 3-6, 6-1, 1-6, 6-2 (avg 9.4 games).
• Both players have first-serve win percentages around 64-68%, limiting quick breaks.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Honda's recent second sets have been competitive, and Vales' second sets also tend to extend, making over 9.5 games a reasonable expectation.

• Vales' last 5 second sets: 6-4, 7-6, 6-2, 6-4, 0-6 (avg 9.2 games).
• Honda's last 5 second sets: 7-5, 7-5, 6-1, 6-4, 6-4 (avg 9.8 games).
• Honda's second-set performance is notably consistent, with 4 of last 5 going over 9.5 games.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Vales' superior first-set conversion rate and dominant H2H first set suggest he is likely to start strongly again.

• Vales' first-set win conversion rate is 87% (career), Honda's is 81%.
• In their H2H, Vales won the first set 6-1.
• Recent first sets: Vales won first set in 3 of last 5 matches; Honda won first set in 2 of last 5.