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Predictions graded

James Duckworth #81Australia2Miguel Damas #260Spain1

Sets 3-6 · 7-5 · 6-3Sat 16 May 2026, 09:30 Predictions gradedQ1Clay

Predictions3–538%

Edges1–517%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageJames Duckworth · 179 places

James Duckworth

Australia

Former world No. 46 and a hard-court leaning Australian right-hander. His ranking sits below the January 2022 peak, and public career coverage documents multiple injury interruptions earlier in his career.

Current ranking: #81
Peak ranking: #46 · 2022
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Hard
Hand: Right handed
Height: 183 cm

Miguel Damas

Spain

26-year-old Spanish right-hander. Public match-history sources show his ranking rising sharply through 2025-26 and his strongest results coming on clay, where his listed titles have come.

Current ranking: #260
Peak ranking: #260
Current age: 26
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 208 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 15 May 2026, 23:33 · Europe/Bucharest

Duckworth's dominant 2026 clay form (9-2, all straight-set wins) and Damas' recent struggles (4 losses in 6 matches, including a 6-1, 6-0 defeat) make Duckworth a strong favorite.

Best betting value lies in Duckworth -3.5 game handicap and under 21.5 total games, reflecting his efficient wins and Damas' vulnerability to heavy losses. Duckworth 2-0 in set betting also offers an edge at +11.5 points.

Context

Duckworth's last 10 matches: 9 wins, 1 loss, all on clay.
- He beat Jan-Lennard Struff (ranking 83) 6-7, 6-4, 6-4 in March.
- Recent wins include multiple 6-1, 6-2 type scorelines, such as a 6-1, 6-1 victory over Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros.
- His 2026 clay record is 9-2, with all wins coming in straight sets.
Damas lost 6-1, 6-0 to Jaime Faria (ranking 119) on May 1.
- He retired at 6-1 down against Nicolas Jarry (ranking 173) on April 7.
- In his last 6 matches, he has 2 wins and 4 losses, with 3 of those losses being in straight sets.
- His only wins in this period came against players ranked 374 and 112, but he also lost to a player ranked 474.
Duckworth's career ace rate is 10.2%, and he averages 6.1 aces per match.
- He wins 75% of points on his first serve and 53% on his second serve.
- Damas has a break-point save rate of only 56.9% and wins just 62% of first-serve points.
- In his recent clay matches, Duckworth hit 7 aces against Struff and 5 against Huesler.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Duckworth's dominant recent clay form and superior surface fit give him a clear edge over Damas, whose recent results are inconsistent and include a retirement.
- Duckworth has won 9 of his last 10 matches, all on clay, with dominant scorelines like 6-1 6-1 and 6-3 6-2.
- Duckworth's recent clay form includes wins over higher-ranked opponents (e.g., Jan-Lennard Struff, ranking 83) and a 9-2 clay record in 2026.
- Damas has lost 4 of his last 6 matches, including a 6-1 6-0 loss to Jaime Faria (ranking 119) and a retirement against Nicolas Jarry.
- Duckworth's career clay win percentage (118-57, 67%) significantly exceeds Damas' (207-148, 58%), and Duckworth's 2026 clay win rate (82%) is far superior to Damas' (48%).
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJames DuckworthEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.30
The read
Duckworth's consistent ability to win by wide margins on clay and Damas' heavy defeats suggest Duckworth will cover the -3.5 game handicap.
- Duckworth's average game margin in his last 5 clay wins: +6.2 games (e.g., 12-5, 12-7, 16-13, 12-5, 12-2).
- Damas' average game margin in his last 5 losses: -7.6 games (e.g., 8-13, 1-12, 8-13, 8-12, 4-12).
- Duckworth has covered -3.5 games in 8 of his last 10 wins.
- Damas has failed to cover +3.5 games in 4 of his last 6 losses.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostJames Duckworth -3.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 2.20
The read
Duckworth's ability to win efficiently on clay and Damas' tendency to lose heavily point to a match with fewer than 21.5 games.
- Duckworth's last 5 wins on clay averaged 18.4 total games per match, with none exceeding 22 games.
- Damas' recent losses have been one-sided, with 4 of his last 6 matches finishing under 21.5 total games.
- Duckworth's dominant form includes multiple 6-1, 6-2 type scorelines, suggesting quick matches.
- Damas' 6-1 6-0 loss to Faria and 6-1 retirement against Jarry indicate vulnerability to lopsided defeats.
BetBugs · Total GameslostUnder 21.5Estimated chance58%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Duckworth's pattern of quick first sets on clay and Damas' recent first-set struggles support under 9.5 games in the first set.
- Duckworth's last 5 first sets on clay: 6-3, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 (average 8.4 games).
- Damas' last 5 first sets: 5-7, 1-6, 6-3, 7-6, 2-6 (average 9.2 games, but with high variance).
- In Duckworth's 9 clay wins this year, 7 first sets had 9 or fewer games.
- Damas has lost first sets 6-1, 6-2, and 6-3 in recent matches, suggesting potential for a quick set.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonUnder 9.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
If Duckworth wins the first set, his momentum and Damas' fragility could lead to another quick set, making under 9.5 games likely.
- Duckworth's last 5 second sets on clay: 6-2, 6-3, 6-4, 6-2, 6-3 (average 8.2 games).
- Damas' last 5 second sets: 3-6, 0-6, 6-1, 6-4, 6-7 (average 8.6 games, but includes a 0-6).
- In Duckworth's straight-set clay wins this year, 6 of 9 second sets had 9 or fewer games.
- Damas' 0-6 second set against Faria shows he can collapse after losing the first set.
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameslostUnder 9.5Estimated chance52%

Sets0 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Duckworth's dominance on clay and Damas' recent straight-set losses make a two-set match highly probable.
- Duckworth has won in straight sets in 8 of his last 10 matches, including all 9 clay wins this year.
- Damas has lost in straight sets in 4 of his last 6 matches, with only one three-setter in that span.
- Duckworth's career deciding-set win rate is 54%, but he rarely needs it on clay this year.
- Damas' deciding-set win rate is 57%, but his recent form suggests he may not push the match to three sets.
BetBugs · Total SetslostUnder 2.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Duckworth's consistent strong starts and Damas' recent first-set struggles make Duckworth the likely first-set winner.
- Duckworth has won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches, often by comfortable margins (e.g., 6-3, 6-4).
- Damas has lost the first set in 4 of his last 6 matches, including a 6-1 set against Faria and a 6-2 set against Donald.
- Duckworth's first-set win conversion rate is 85%, indicating strong starts.
- Damas' first-set win conversion is 86%, but his recent form suggests he struggles to start well against quality opponents.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerlostJames DuckworthEstimated chance60%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Duckworth's dominant clay form and Damas' tendency to lose heavily make a tiebreak unlikely in this match.
- Duckworth's recent clay matches have featured only 2 tiebreaks in his last 10 matches.
- Damas' recent matches have had 3 tiebreaks in his last 10, but his losses are often one-sided.
- Duckworth's tiebreak win percentage is 54%, but he rarely plays them on clay this year.
- Damas' tiebreak win percentage is 52%, but his poor form reduces the likelihood of close sets.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonNoEstimated chance65%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Duckworth's high ace rate makes over 5.5 total aces achievable, even on clay, given his serving prowess.
- Duckworth's ace rate is 10.2%, and he averages 6.1 aces per match based on his career stats.
- Damas' ace rate is only 1.6%, but Duckworth alone could push the total over 5.5.
- In Duckworth's recent clay matches, he hit 7 aces against Struff and 5 against Huesler, suggesting he can produce aces on clay.
- Damas' low ace count (career 434 aces in 474 matches) means the over relies heavily on Duckworth's serving.
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double fault rates, making under 5.5 total double faults likely in a best-of-three match.
- Duckworth's double fault rate is 3.4%, averaging 2.0 double faults per match.
- Damas' double fault rate is 3.8%, averaging 2.3 double faults per match.
- Combined, their average double faults per match is 4.3, well under 5.5.
- In their recent matches, neither player has exceeded 3 double faults in a single match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance52%

James Duckworth

11W 4L

6-7(7) 7-6(3) 6-2#246Stefano Napolitano

7-6(7) 6-4#424Tibo Colson

4-6 6-3 6-4#297Beibit Zhukayev

6-3 6-2#265Stefan Kozlov

6-4 6-3#218Michael Mmoh

7-6(6) 6-2#174Nicolas Mejia

4-6 6-3 7-6(7)#255Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

6-2 6-3#297Beibit Zhukayev

6-4 6-3#501Miguel Tobon

6-1 6-1#585Alan Fernando Rubio Fierros

7-6(4) 6-3#255Rodrigo Pacheco Mendez

5-7 6-4 6-4#301Marc-Andrea Huesler

7-6(3) 7-6(4)#98Roberto Bautista Agut

3-6 6-4 6-2#52Nuno Borges

6-7(3) 6-4 6-4#83Jan-Lennard Struff

Miguel Damas

6W 9L

7-5 6-3#452Lorenzo Carboni

6-1 6-0#119Jaime Faria

6-3 6-1#374Mika Brunold

7-6(2) 6-4#112Francesco Maestrelli

6-2 7-6(5)#474Matthew William Donald

6-3 6-4—Piet Luis Pinter

6-4 6-4#370Carlo Alberto Caniato

6-3 6-3#374Mika Brunold

6-1 ret.#173Nicolas Jarry

6-2 4-6 6-2#309Daniel Rincon

3-6 6-3 6-1#303Abedallah Shelbayh

6-3 6-1#64Daniel Altmaier

4-6 6-4 6-4#122Jan Choinski

6-4 7-5#292Thiago Moura Monteiro

7-6(8) 6-4#230Alvaro Guillen Meza

James Duckworth

Miguel Damas

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

James Duckworth -3.5

Under 21.5

James Duckworth 2-0

Under 2.5

James Duckworth

James Duckworth

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 4 landed

Sets0 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

James Duckworth

Miguel Damas