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Madison Keys - Anastasia Zakharova

WTA ParisFinished
Friday, May 15, 2026 at 13:48
MK 🇺🇸
Player 1Projected favoriteProjected favorite is a purely data-driven pick based on each player's last 15 matches. It is not a guarantee.

Madison Keys

Former world No. 5 and 2025 Australian Open champion. Hard court is her stated favorite surface, and her ranking climbed back to a career high in February 2025 after spending late 2024 outside the Top 20.

Current age31
Current ranking#19
Peak ranking#5 · 2025
Preferred surfaceHard
HandRight handed
Height178 cm
AZ 🇷🇺
Player 2

Anastasia Zakharova

Her main-tour breakthrough came in 2025 with a Cleveland semifinal and a Top 100 debut. Public profile sources accessed here did not state a preferred surface.

Current age24
Current ranking#81
Peak ranking#65
Preferred surface—
HandRight handed
Height170 cm

Finished Snapshot

FT2-0
FinishedSettled

Sets

6-4 · 6-1

Predictions

6W · 1L · 0P

Edges

4W · 0L · 0P

Quick Take

Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.

Madison Keys' efficient Paris form, dominant serve, and strong clay record make her a heavy favorite against Anastasia Zakharova, who is battling fatigue after two three-set wins. The best betting angle is under 20.5 total games, as Keys' straight-set control should keep the match short.

Set 1 WinnerMadison Keys70%Fair price
Total SetsUnder 2.565%Fair price
Total GamesUnder 20.562%Fair price

Context Signals

The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.

Betting Edges

Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.

Model probabilities

The model view before price and edge filtering.

Markets to Avoid

Low-conviction spots where the price does not justify the risk.

Match Winner :No odds available for matchWinner market in the provided data.
Total Games Under 17.5:Model estimate for Under 20.5 is 62%, but Under 17.5 is not directly predicted; the prediction is for Under 20.5 only.
Total Games Over 20.5:Model predicts Under 20.5, so Over 20.5 is the opposite outcome and not supported.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)
W6-3 6-2Madison Keys#19vAnastasia Zakharova#81Jun 11, 2025
1 total meetings

Madison Keys

10W 5L
W6-4 6-1#159 Tiantsoa Rakotomanga RajaonahMay 14, 2026
W6-4 6-2#197 Fiona FerroMay 12, 2026
L6-3 1-6 6-4#94 Nikola BartunkovaMay 10, 2026
W4-6 6-4 6-2#49 Peyton StearnsMay 8, 2026
L6-1 6-4#57 Yuliia StarodubtsevaApr 4, 2026
W4-6 6-3 6-2#12 Belinda BencicApr 3, 2026
W6-2 7-5#58 Anna BondarApr 2, 2026
W6-2 6-3#89 Donna VekicApr 1, 2026
L4-6 6-2 6-4#32 Qinwen ZhengMar 22, 2026
W6-0 6-3#67 Elena Gabriela RuseMar 21, 2026
L2-6 6-2 6-3#56 Sonay KartalMar 9, 2026
W6-4 6-3#108 Diane ParryMar 7, 2026
L6-3 6-4#5 Jessica PegulaJan 26, 2026
W6-3 6-3#130 Karolina PliskovaJan 24, 2026
W6-1 7-5#105 Ashlyn KruegerJan 22, 2026

Anastasia Zakharova

9W 6L
W6-3 3-6 6-4#60 Katie BoulterMay 13, 2026
W6-2 6-2#143 Maddison InglisMay 11, 2026
L6-4 6-1#13 Linda NoskovaMay 7, 2026
W4-6 7-5 7-6(6)#52 Dayana YastremskaMay 5, 2026
L6-3 6-0#176 Marina Bassols RiberaApr 27, 2026
L6-0 6-3#83 Maria Camila Osorio SerranoApr 21, 2026
L7-5 6-2#52 Dayana YastremskaMar 30, 2026
L6-1 7-5#9 Victoria MbokoMar 21, 2026
W3-6 6-1 7-5#24 Anna KalinskayaMar 20, 2026
W5-7 6-3 6-1#58 Anna BondarMar 19, 2026
W6-3 6-2#118 Rebecca SramkovaMar 17, 2026
W6-2 6-1#228 Louisa ChiricoMar 16, 2026
L6-3 6-4#99 Lanlana TararudeeMar 12, 2026
W6-0 6-2#155 Linda FruhvirtovaMar 11, 2026
W7-5 7-5#90 Viktorija GolubicMar 10, 2026
Data Coverage (dev)

Data Coverage

Complete
StatsAvailable

May 14, 20:00

IntelAvailable

May 15, 01:04

OddsAvailable

May 15, 14:48

Injuries/News (from Intel)Available

May 15, 01:04

Analysis updated: May 15, 01:06

Madison Keys enters this WTA Paris quarterfinal as the clear favorite, having efficiently dispatched her first two opponents in straight sets. Her clay-court pedigree, highlighted by a 6-2 record on the surface in 2026, contrasts sharply with Anastasia Zakharova's 3-4 mark. Keys' dominant serve—winning 68.6% of first-serve points—and an 87% first-set conversion rate underscore her ability to control matches from the outset. Despite a recent illness that forced her withdrawal from Madrid, her Paris form suggests she has recovered well and is peaking at the right time.