Career-high No. 87 came on 24 February 2025. His strongest recent Challenger-level runs have been on clay, including a Sao Paulo final in March 2026 and this Oeiras semifinal run.
Career-high No. 74 came on 16 March 2026. Most of his title-level success has come on clay, including three Challenger crowns between March and April 2025.
Finished Snapshot
Sets
2-6 · 7-6 · 6-7
Predictions
5W · 4L · 0P
Edges
0W · 1L · 0P
Start here for the short read and the strongest priced leans.
Faria's clay-court pedigree and dominant H2H win in March give him a moderate edge over Nava in the Oeiras semifinal. The match is likely to be close, with a high chance of over 21.5 games and a tiebreak, but Faria's superior return game and home advantage should see him through. Betting value lies in Faria to win at 1.75 and Nava +3.5 games on the handicap.
The match conditions that matter before looking at the prices.
Markets where the model and price are far enough apart.
Market & pick
Implied
Model
Edge
The model view before price and edge filtering.
Market & pick
Model
Low-conviction spots where the price does not justify the risk.
Pre-match flagged 7 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.
May 14, 18:02
May 14, 18:07
May 15, 13:33
May 14, 18:07
Analysis updated: May 14, 18:09