Jay Clarke vs Moez Echargui: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.45
The read
Clarke's superior clay-court pedigree and slightly better recent form on the surface give him a narrow edge over the out-of-form Echargui, despite the ranking gap.
- Clarke's career clay win rate is 63% (143-84), significantly better than Echargui's 51.3% (82-78).
- Clarke's recent form on clay: 5-6 in 2026, including a win over No. 154 Basavareddy and competitive losses to top-250 opponents.
- Echargui's 2026 record is 6-13 overall, with a 3-6 clay record and heavy losses to Garin (6-0 6-2) and Budkov Kjaer (6-1 6-0).
- Clarke's first-set win conversion rate is 86%, indicating strong front-running ability when he starts well.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonJay ClarkeEstimated chance55%

Games0 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
The combination of Clarke's competitive clay matches and Echargui's tendency to push sets deep in losses points to a match exceeding 21.5 games.
- Clarke's last 5 clay matches averaged 22.4 total games, with 3 of 5 exceeding 21.5.
- Echargui's last 5 clay matches averaged 20.6 total games, but his competitive losses often went over 21.5 (e.g., 13-18 vs. Garin, 14-18 vs. Buse).
- Both players have similar serve/return profiles, with break-point conversion rates around 44%, suggesting extended games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With both players holding serve at similar rates and recent first sets often reaching 10+ games, over 9.5 games in the first set is likely.
- Clarke's last 5 first sets on clay: 7-6, 6-4, 6-1, 3-6, 3-6, averaging 9.8 games.
- Echargui's last 5 first sets on clay: 0-6, 7-6, 1-6, 4-6, 3-6, averaging 9.4 games.
- Both players have first-serve win percentages around 67-68%, limiting quick breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameslostOver 9.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Even in defeat, Echargui typically stays within 3.5 games, and Clarke's wins are often narrow, making the handicap cover likely.
- Echargui's last 5 losses on clay have been by margins of 10, 5, 11, 5, and 5 games, with only one blowout exceeding 3.5 games.
- Clarke's last 5 wins on clay have been by margins of 6, 10, 2, 7, and 4 games, with two wins by fewer than 3.5 games.
- Echargui's competitive losses to top-100 players (e.g., Garin, Kovacevic) show he can keep matches close.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostMoez Echargui +3.5Estimated chance60%

Sets1 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Clarke's recent trend of strong starts on clay contrasts with Echargui's slow openings, making Clarke the more likely first-set winner.
- Clarke has won the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches on clay, including against higher-ranked opponents.
- Echargui has lost the first set in 4 of his last 5 matches, often by wide margins (0-6, 1-6, 3-6).
- Clarke's first-set win conversion rate of 86% suggests he capitalizes on early leads.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonJay ClarkeEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The competitive nature of both players' recent clay matches and their similar levels suggest a high chance of a deciding set.
- Clarke has gone to three sets in 3 of his last 5 clay matches.
- Echargui has gone to three sets in 2 of his last 5 clay matches, including a tight loss to Garin.
- Both players have deciding-set win rates around 52-56%, indicating they can extend matches.
BetBugs · Total SetslostOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
With neither player relying on aces and the clay surface dampening serve effectiveness, total aces are likely to stay under 8.5.
- Both players have low ace rates: Clarke 4.6%, Echargui 4.6%.
- Clarke averages 3.2 aces per match in his last 5 clay matches; Echargui averages 2.8.
- Clay surface reduces ace counts due to slower conditions.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 8.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have moderate double-fault rates, and their combined averages exceed 5.5, making the over a reasonable expectation.
- Clarke's double-fault rate is 3.5%, averaging 2.8 per match in his last 5 clay outings.
- Echargui's double-fault rate is 4.0%, averaging 3.2 per match in his last 5 clay outings.
- Combined, their averages sum to 6.0 double faults per match.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The high frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent clay matches suggests at least one set is likely to go to a tiebreak.
- Clarke has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 clay matches.
- Echargui has played a tiebreak in 3 of his last 5 clay matches.
- Both players have tiebreak win rates around 51-55%, indicating frequent tiebreak scenarios.
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchlostYesEstimated chance55%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Jay Clarke #207United Kingdom2Moez Echargui #140Tunisia0

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Jay Clarke

Moez Echargui

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Context

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Jay Clarke 2-1

Jay Clarke

Jay Clarke

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Result1 of 1 landed

Games0 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 2 landed

Match stats0 of 1 landed

Jay Clarke

Moez Echargui