ItalyATP RomeFinished

Predictions graded

Hubert Hurkacz #53Poland1Yannick Hanfmann #59Germany2

Sets 7-6 · 6-7 · 2-6Wed 6 May 2026, 11:21 Predictions gradedFirst RoundClay

Predictions7–278%

Edges6–186%

Player Profiles

Ranking advantageHubert Hurkacz · 6 places

Hubert Hurkacz

Poland

Career-high No. 6 came in August 2024. His ranking drop followed the 2025 knee surgery and a stop-start return that he was still describing as inconsistent in March 2026.

Current ranking: #53
Peak ranking: #6 · 2024
Current age: 29
Preferred surface: Grass
Hand: Right handed
Height: 196 cm

Yannick Hanfmann

Germany

Clay has powered his best ATP results, including all three tour finals and a Rome quarterfinal in 2023. He moved back toward his best ranking range after making the Chile Open final in February 2026.

Current ranking: #59
Peak ranking: #45 · 2023
Current age: 34
Preferred surface: Clay
Hand: Right handed
Height: 193 cm

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 6 May 2026, 00:51 · Europe/Bucharest

Hurkacz’s serve gives him a moderate edge, but post-surgery inconsistency and Hanfmann’s clay pedigree make this closer than the 1.44 match-winner price implies.

The best value is Hanfmann +3.5 games (1.60) and over 2.5 sets (2.30), with first-set overs also offering small edges. Avoid backing Hurkacz at short odds given the fitness question and Hanfmann’s ability to force tiebreaks and deciders.

Context

Hurkacz had arthroscopic right-knee surgery in July 2025.
- In a March 2026 ATP feature, he said he was healthy but still needed matches and his level was not yet consistent.
- His 2026 clay results include a loss to Arnaldi (ranked 106) and a three-set struggle against Burruchaga, showing uneven form.
Hanfmann made the Chile Open final in February 2026, defeating Francisco Cerundolo (ranked 27) in straight sets.
- He is 8-4 on clay in 2026, with wins over Cerundolo, Giron, and Ugo Carabelli.
- His career clay record is 236-120, and his best Rome result was a 2023 quarterfinal with wins over Fritz and Rublev.
Hurkacz’s 2026 clay first-serve points won: 75%, ace rate: 11.8%.
- Hanfmann’s career clay return points won: 39%, matching Hurkacz’s 37%.
- Their only H2H on clay (2018) ended 7-6 7-6, with both saving break points effectively.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 4

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Hurkacz's superior serve and recent clay form, plus a prior H2H win on clay, give him a moderate edge despite fitness questions.
- Hurkacz leads H2H 1-0 on clay (2018, 7-6 7-6).
- Hurkacz clay record 2026: 7-3, including recent Rome wins over Berrettini and Burruchaga.
- Hanfmann clay record 2026: 8-4, but lost last clay match to Cerundolo 6-1 7-5.
- Hurkacz serve stats: 75% first-serve points won, 11.8% ace rate vs Hanfmann 70.4% first-serve points won, 7.1% ace rate.
BetBugs · Match WinnerlostHubert HurkaczEstimated chance62%

Games4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.60
The read
Hanfmann's clay competence and tight H2H suggest he will keep the match close, covering a +3.5 game handicap.
- Hurkacz average games won margin in last 5 wins: +4.2.
- Hanfmann average games lost margin in last 5 losses: -4.6.
- H2H margin: Hurkacz +2 games (14-12).
- Hanfmann's clay return points won: 39% career, matching Hurkacz's 37%.
BetBugs · Game HandicapwonYannick Hanfmann +3.5Estimated chance68%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Recent match lengths and strong serving suggest a tight contest likely exceeding 21.5 games, consistent with their clay H2H.
- Hurkacz last 5 matches: average 22.6 total games.
- Hanfmann last 5 matches: average 23.4 total games.
- H2H on clay: 26 total games (7-6 7-6).
- Both players have break-point save rates above 60% (Hurkacz 64.3%, Hanfmann 61.1%).
BetBugs · Total GameswonOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Recent first-set lengths and the H2H suggest a tight opening set likely exceeding 9.5 games.
- Hurkacz last 5 first sets: 10, 10, 10, 10, 8 games (avg 9.6).
- Hanfmann last 5 first sets: 7, 10, 13, 10, 13 games (avg 10.6).
- H2H first set: 13 games (7-6).
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Second sets have been consistently long for both players, supporting over 9.5 games.
- Hurkacz last 5 second sets: 10, 13, 10, 10, 13 games (avg 11.2).
- Hanfmann last 5 second sets: 12, 13, 8, 10, 10 games (avg 10.6).
- H2H second set: 13 games (7-6).
BetBugs · Set 2 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance60%

Sets2 of 2 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Both have high first-set conversion rates, but Hurkacz's recent first-set performance and serve advantage tilt the opener slightly in his favor.
- Hurkacz first-set win conversion career: 84%.
- Hanfmann first-set win conversion career: 85%.
- Hurkacz won first set in 3 of last 5 matches; Hanfmann lost first set in 2 of last 4.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonHubert HurkaczEstimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Market price 2.30
The read
The likelihood of a three-setter is elevated by both players' recent patterns and Hanfmann's ability to challenge on clay.
- Hurkacz 2026 clay: 4 of 10 matches went three sets.
- Hanfmann 2026 clay: 5 of 12 matches went three sets.
- Combined deciding-set frequency in recent form suggests a competitive match.
BetBugs · Total SetswonOver 2.5Estimated chance55%

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both players have low double-fault rates, making under 5.5 likely in a typical match length.
- Hurkacz double-fault rate: 3.6%.
- Hanfmann double-fault rate: 3.1%.
- Combined rate ~6.7% suggests ~4-5 double faults in 22 games.
- H2H: Hanfmann 3 double faults, Hurkacz data unavailable but low rate.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsUnder 5.5Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Hurkacz's high ace rate drives the total, and a projected longer match supports over 12.5 aces.
- Hurkacz ace rate: 11.8% (career 5947 aces in 676 matches).
- Hanfmann ace rate: 7.1% (career 3093 aces in 705 matches).
- Combined ace rate ~18.9% implies ~13+ aces in a 22-game match.
- H2H: 10 aces combined in 26 games (4+6).
BetBugs · Total AcesOver 12.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Strong serving and historical patterns, including the H2H, indicate a high chance of at least one tiebreak.
- Hurkacz tiebreak win rate: 52% career, played tiebreaks in 3 of last 10 matches.
- Hanfmann tiebreak win rate: 43% career, played tiebreaks in 4 of last 10 matches.
- H2H: both sets went to tiebreaks.
- Both have strong first-serve points won (75% and 70.4%).
BetBugs · Tiebreak in MatchwonYesEstimated chance58%

Head-to-Head

1-0 (1 meetings)

W7-6(1) 7-6(4)Hubert Hurkacz#53vYannick Hanfmann#59May 23, 2018

1 total meetings

Hubert Hurkacz

7W 8L

6-4 6-4#106Matteo Arnaldi

4-6 7-6(3) 6-3#56Roman Andres Burruchaga

4-6 6-3 6-4#100Matteo Berrettini

6-4 6-1#108Emilio Nava

6-2 7-6(8)#90Zachary Svajda

6-4 7-6(4)#10Lorenzo Musetti

6-3 6-3#119Jaime Faria

6-7(4) 6-3 6-4#16Valentin Vacherot

6-2 6-3#49Fabian Marozsan

7-6(4) 5-7 6-1#20Luciano Darderi

6-2 6-4#48Ethan Quinn

6-2 6-4#80Mattia Bellucci

7-6(6) 7-6(4)#95Aleksandar Kovacevic

6-4 7-6(7)#28Jakub Mensik

6-7(2) 7-6(1) 7-5#11Alexander Bublik

Yannick Hanfmann

10W 5L

6-1 7-5#27Francisco Cerundolo

6-4 6-7(3) 7-5#77Marcos Giron

7-6(2) 6-2#36Alexander Blockx

6-4 6-7(3) 6-2#510Karim Bennani

7-6(6) 6-4#102Jesper De Jong

6-4 4-6 6-1#34Rafael Jodar

6-1 5-7 6-3#97Luca Van Assche

6-3 6-4#128Leandro Riedi

7-6(6) 7-5#20Luciano Darderi

6-3 6-4#27Francisco Cerundolo

3-6 6-2 6-2#121Vilius Gaubas

6-4 6-3#61Camilo Ugo Carabelli

6-0 6-3#132Dusan Lajovic

6-4 6-7(1) 6-4#72Juan Manuel Cerundolo

7-6(3) 6-4#202Joao Lucas Reis Da Silva

Hubert Hurkacz

Yannick Hanfmann

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Yannick Hanfmann +3.5

Over 9.5

Over 9.5

Over 2.5

Over 21.5

Hubert Hurkacz

Hubert Hurkacz

Result0 of 1 landed

Games4 of 4 landed

Sets2 of 2 landed

Match stats1 of 1 landed

Head-to-Head

Hubert Hurkacz

Yannick Hanfmann