Daniel Dutra Da Silva vs Facundo Mena: result, stats and head-to-head

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.50
The read
Facundo Mena holds a surface-fit edge with superior 2026 clay form and a positive recent H2H trend, while Dutra Da Silva's negative clay momentum and January retirement flag reduce his upset chances.
- Mena leads H2H 5-4, winning 3 of last 5 meetings, all on clay.
- Mena's 2026 clay record: 15-8 (65.2%), Dutra Da Silva: 8-13 (38.1%).
- Mena's career clay win%: 57.1% (454-341), Dutra Da Silva: 54.7% (645-535).
- Mena is seeded #4 in Santos, indicating stronger current Challenger level.
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonFacundo MenaEstimated chance62%

Games1 of 3 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Recent match data for both players shows a tendency toward longer matches, and H2H history supports a competitive total games count, making over 21.5 likely.
- Last 5 H2H matches averaged 20.8 games; 3 of 5 went over 21.5.
- Dutra Da Silva's last 8 matches: 6 of 8 had 22+ games.
- Mena's last 8 matches: 5 of 8 had 22+ games.
- Both players have break-point conversion rates near 43-46%, suggesting competitive games.
BetBugs · Total GameslostOver 21.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Dutra Da Silva's recent matches are consistently close, and H2H history shows he rarely loses by a wide margin, making +3.5 games a strong cover probability.
- Last 5 H2H matches: Dutra Da Silva covered +3.5 in 4 of 5.
- Dutra Da Silva's last 8 losses: 6 were by 3 games or fewer.
- Mena's last 8 wins: only 2 were by more than 3.5 games.
BetBugs · Game HandicaplostDaniel Dutra Da Silva +3.5Estimated chance65%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.80
The read
The first set is likely to be tight given both players' solid first-serve numbers and the competitive nature of their H2H, pushing the total over 9.5 games.
- In last 8 matches, Dutra Da Silva's set 1 averaged 10.1 games; Mena's averaged 9.4.
- H2H set 1 games: 5 of 9 matches had 10+ games.
- Both players have first-serve win% around 67-71%, limiting quick breaks.
BetBugs · Set 1 Total GameswonOver 9.5Estimated chance62%

Sets1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.55
The read
Mena's slightly better recent first-set performance and strong career first-set conversion rate, combined with Dutra Da Silva's shaky 2026 form, give Mena a moderate edge in set 1.
- Mena's first-set win conversion career: 88%, Dutra Da Silva: 87%.
- In last 8 matches, Mena won first set in 5 of 8; Dutra Da Silva in 4 of 8.
- H2H on clay: Mena won first set in 5 of 9 matches.
BetBugs · Set 1 WinnerwonFacundo MenaEstimated chance60%

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Given low career ace rates and historically low ace counts in their H2H on clay, the total aces are likely to stay under 7.5.
- Dutra Da Silva career ace rate: 4.8%, Mena: 7.3%.
- H2H ace counts: Dutra Da Silva 17 in 9 matches (1.9 per match), Mena 14 (1.6 per match).
- Clay surface reduces ace totals; both players rely on rally tolerance.
BetBugs · Total AcesUnder 7.5Estimated chance60%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Dutra Da Silva's higher double-fault tendency, especially in H2H matchups, combined with both players' moderate double-fault rates, makes over 5.5 double faults likely.
- Dutra Da Silva career double-fault rate: 4.2%, Mena: 4.0%.
- H2H double faults: Dutra Da Silva 27 in 9 matches (3.0 per match), Mena 9 (1.0 per match).
- Dutra Da Silva's recent matches show elevated double-fault counts in pressure situations.
BetBugs · Total Double FaultsOver 5.5Estimated chance58%

The percentage shows our estimated chance. Tap a row for the context and share card.18+ · predictions, not guarantees

Daniel Dutra Da Silva #385Brazil0Facundo Mena #296Argentina2

Player Profiles

Daniel Dutra Da Silva

Facundo Mena

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 9.5

Facundo Mena

Facundo Mena

BetBugs probabilities

Result1 of 1 landed

Games1 of 3 landed

Sets1 of 1 landed

Match stats0 of 0 landed

Head-to-Head

Daniel Dutra Da Silva

Facundo Mena