Anastasia Zakharova #81Russia22 – 1Dayana Yastremska #52Ukraine1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73

The read

Clay matches between these two tend to be competitive, with both having moderate serve stats and high break-point activity, making a 20+ game total likely.

• H2H: Both matches had 20+ games (20 and 37).
• Clay dynamics: Slower surface extends rallies; both players have break-point conversion rates around 50%.
• Recent matches: Yastremska's last three matches averaged 25.3 games; Zakharova's last three averaged 18.7 but against stronger opposition.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 2.10

The read

Zakharova has been competitive in losses, and Yastremska rarely blows out opponents on clay, making +3.5 games a solid cover for the underdog.

• H2H: Zakharova covered +3.5 in both matches (lost by 5 games on clay, 3 games on grass).
• Recent: Zakharova's last 8 matches: 4 wins, 4 losses, but only one loss by more than 3.5 games (6-3 6-0).
• Clay form: Yastremska's 2026 clay wins have been tight (7-5 4-6 6-3, 7-5 6-2).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.85

The read

Both prior first sets went to 7-5, and with neither player dominating on serve, a tight opening set with at least 10 games is probable.

• H2H: First sets were 7-5 and 7-5, both 12 games.
• Serve/return: Yastremska's first-serve win% is 63.8%, Zakharova's is 61.1%, suggesting holds but also breaks.
• Recent: Zakharova's last two first sets were 6-3 and 6-0, but Yastremska's were 7-6 and 6-4.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.44

The read

Yastremska has taken the opening set in both prior encounters, and Zakharova's recent first-set struggles (0-6, 3-6) suggest Yastremska can start fast again.

• H2H: Yastremska won the first set in both previous meetings (7-5, 7-5).
• First-set conversion: Yastremska's career first-set win conversion is 83%, Zakharova's is 89%.
• Recent form: Zakharova lost the first set 6-3 and 6-0 in her last two matches.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have high double-fault rates, especially Yastremska, and their H2H history shows elevated DF counts, making over 7.5 likely.

• Double fault rates: Yastremska 6.8%, Zakharova 4.8% career.
• H2H: Combined 23 double faults in two matches (11.5 per match).
• Recent: Yastremska averaged 5.2 DFs in last 5 matches; Zakharova 3.4.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Near coin-flip · Not priced

The read

Yastremska's higher ace rate and past H2H ace totals suggest a combined 6+ aces is a coin-flip, with clay slightly suppressing the count.

• Ace rates: Yastremska 4.2%, Zakharova 1.9% career.
• H2H: Combined aces: 11 in two matches (5.5 per match).
• Clay: Ace counts typically lower, but Yastremska's power can produce 3-4 aces alone.