Katherine Sebov #224Canada22 – 0Dalila Jakupovic #3690

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.35

The read

Sebov's superior recent form (6-2 vs 3-5) and fresher physical state, combined with Jakupovic's travel load and poor momentum, give Sebov a clear edge on clay.

• Sebov is 6-2 in last 8 matches, including four straight wins at Calvi ITF (Apr 2026) before a final loss to Vandromme.
• Jakupovic is 3-5 in last 8, with losses in three of her last four events, all on clay.
• Sebov's career clay win rate is 50-42 (54.3%), while Jakupovic's is 252-214 (54.1%), but Sebov's recent clay form is stronger.
• Intel notes Jakupovic has poor singles momentum and a fresher withdrawal history, while Sebov is stable and fresher.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players' recent matches trend toward efficient straight-set outcomes, with Sebov's dominant wins and Jakupovic's quick losses suggesting a total under 21.5 games.

• Sebov's last 8 matches averaged 18.9 total games; Jakupovic's averaged 19.1.
• In Sebov's four Calvi wins, total games were 16, 18, 19, 16—all under 21.5.
• Jakupovic's recent losses often finished in straight sets with low game counts (e.g., 15, 16, 18 games).

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players tend to close out or lose sets efficiently, with Sebov's consistent second-set control pointing to another under 9.5 games.

• Sebov's last 8 second sets averaged 8.4 games; 6 of 8 were under 9.5.
• Jakupovic's last 8 second sets averaged 8.6 games; 5 of 8 were under 9.5.
• In Sebov's Calvi wins, second-set scores were 6-4, 6-3, 6-4, 6-4—all under 9.5.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Sebov's consistent ability to win by comfortable margins against similar-level opponents supports a -3.5 game handicap cover.

• Sebov's average game margin in wins this year: +5.3 games.
• Jakupovic's average game margin in losses this year: -5.8 games.
• In Sebov's four Calvi wins, she covered -3.5 games each time (margins: +8, +6, +5, +6).

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.40

The read

Both players have overwhelmingly produced straight-set matches recently, making a two-set outcome highly probable.

• Sebov's last 8 matches: 6 straight-set results (75%).
• Jakupovic's last 8 matches: 7 straight-set results (87.5%).
• Career deciding-set rates: Sebov 48%, Jakupovic 50%, but recent form shows fewer three-setters.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.62

The read

Sebov's trend of winning first sets in 75% of recent matches, coupled with Jakupovic's slow starts (only 37.5% first-set wins recently), supports a Sebov first-set victory.

• Sebov won the first set in 6 of her last 8 matches; Jakupovic won the first set in only 3 of her last 8.
• Sebov's first-set win conversion rate is 86% career, slightly above Jakupovic's 85%.
• In recent clay matches, Sebov started strongly, winning first sets 6-3, 6-3, 6-2, 6-3 in her Calvi run.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

The low frequency of tiebreaks in both players' recent matches and the likelihood of straight sets make a tiebreak unlikely.

• Sebov's career tiebreak win rate: 53%, but only 1 tiebreak in last 8 matches.
• Jakupovic's career tiebreak win rate: 47%, with 1 tiebreak in last 8 matches.
• Both players' recent matches have been decided in straight sets with few tight sets.

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have low ace rates, and on clay, ace counts are typically suppressed, making under 5.5 aces likely.

• Sebov's ace rate: 1.2% (career), averaging ~1.5 aces per match in recent data.
• Jakupovic's ace rate: 1.7% (career), averaging ~2 aces per match.
• Combined, their ace rates suggest a total around 3-4 aces in a typical two-set match.

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both players have elevated double fault rates, and the clay surface may extend points, leading to more double faults and a total over 7.5.

• Sebov's double fault rate: 3.6% (career), averaging ~3-4 per match.
• Jakupovic's double fault rate: 3.9% (career), averaging ~4-5 per match.
• Combined, they average ~7-9 double faults per match, and clay can increase double faults due to longer rallies.