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Rei Sakamoto - Vilius Gaubas

MadridTerminat

Rei Sakamoto

#159

Vilius Gaubas

#124

Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 09:16

Rezumat final

FT1-2
TerminatEvaluat

Seturi

6-7 · 7-6 · 6-7

Predicții

6V · 1Î · 0E

Edge-uri

2V · 1Î · 0E

Pe scurt

Gaubas is the slight favorite due to ranking, clay depth, and return quality, but Sakamoto's serve keeps this matchup close. Best value signals are Gaubas moneyline, Gaubas -1.5 games, and tiebreak in match: Yes, with exact-score and thin first-set prices best avoided.

Match WinnerVilius Gaubas58%+4.0pp
Game HandicapVilius Gaubas (-1.5)55%+5.0pp
Tiebreak in MatchYes53%+9.5pp

Semnale de context

On April 20, 2026 coverage ahead of this match lists Rei Sakamoto at ATP No. 159 and frames this as the qualifying final against ATP No. 124 Vilius Gaubas, indicating an immediate step-up in opponent level.

Puntodebreak's March 31, 2026 clay-court comparison notes Madrid at 667m altitude with faster ball travel than typical clay venues, a context that can shift point dynamics versus slower clay stops.

Oportunități de pariuri

Probabilități model

Piețe de evitat

Total Games All listed ladders:Current specialist payload has no high-confidence total-games projection and the market board is wide with conflicting ladder prices.
Set 1 Winner Vilius Gaubas @ 1.85:Implied 54.05% vs model 56.00% is only a thin 1.95pt edge and there is no H2H sample to stabilize first-set volatility.
Set Betting All exact-score options:Correct-score outcomes are high-variance and this specialist payload did not receive a strong set-betting projection to justify an edge call.

Pre-match flagged 5 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Vilius Gaubas enters this Madrid qualifying final with the stronger baseline profile on paper. He is ranked ATP No. 124 versus Rei Sakamoto at No. 159, and his long-run clay record is far deeper (156 clay wins versus 18), which matters in a pressure qualifier where return games often decide momentum. The matchup is not one-way, because Sakamoto's serve profile can keep sets tight. His ace rate and first-serve points won are stronger, and both players have recent tiebreak-heavy scorelines, so one long set is very plausible even if Gaubas is the side with the better overall clay-return shape.

Formă recentă

Rei Sakamoto

6W 4L
W7-6(9) 6-1#88 Zachary SvajdaApr 20, 2026
L7-6(7) 7-6(4)#118 Henrique RochaApr 16, 2026
W6-4 6-4#240 Alejandro Moro CanasApr 14, 2026
L6-3 7-5#98 Luca Van AsscheApr 8, 2026
W6-4 6-3#204 Roberto Carballes BaenaApr 6, 2026
L7-6(8) 6-4#77 Marco TrungellitiMar 30, 2026
W6-4 6-2— Amine JamjiMar 29, 2026
L6-7(10) 6-3 6-1#10 Daniil MedvedevMar 21, 2026
W6-4 3-6 7-6(7)#97 Aleksandar KovacevicMar 20, 2026
W6-3 7-5#158 Liam DraxlMar 10, 2026

Vilius Gaubas

4W 6L
W6-2 6-4#139 Arthur GeaApr 20, 2026
L7-6(13) 6-4#68 Hamad MedjedovicApr 11, 2026
L7-6(1) 7-5#141 Stefano TravagliaApr 6, 2026
L6-3 6-1#64 Sebastian BaezMar 31, 2026
L6-7(7) 6-4 7-6(4)#233 Max HoukesMar 26, 2026
W6-7(6) 7-6(4) 6-1#303 Abedallah ShelbayhMar 24, 2026
L7-6(2) 6-2#240 Alejandro Moro CanasMar 17, 2026
L3-6 6-2 6-2#60 Yannick HanfmannFeb 27, 2026
W5-7 7-5 6-3#87 Dino PrizmicFeb 25, 2026
W6-2 6-3#284 Matias SotoFeb 24, 2026
Acoperire date (dev)

Acoperire date

Complet
StatisticiDisponibil

Apr 21, 06:03

IntelDisponibil

Apr 21, 06:05

CoteDisponibil

Apr 21, 12:03

Accidentări/Știri (din Intel)Disponibil

Apr 21, 06:05

Analiză actualizată: Apr 21, 06:11