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Marco Trungelliti - Daniel Merida Aguilar

MadridTerminat

Marco Trungelliti

#77

Daniel Merida Aguilar

#102

Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 11:37

Pe scurt

Trungelliti's 3-0 H2H plus larger clay sample creates value against his underdog price, with the cleanest angles on match winner, Set 1 winner, and a small handicap lean.

Match WinnerMarco Trungelliti57%+11.5pp
Set 1 WinnerMarco Trungelliti56%+6.0pp
Game HandicapMarco Trungelliti (-1.5)54%+8.5pp

Semnale de context

VSiN's Madrid preview describes the venue as roughly 650m altitude and one of the fastest clay environments, with shorter points and greater serve/first-strike value than typical clay events.

SportyTrader lists Trungelliti at ATP No. 80 versus Merida Aguilar at ATP No. 104, yet pre-match winner odds were around 1.98 on Trungelliti and 1.83-1.85 on Merida, signaling market support opposite the listed ranking order.

H2H record 3-0 across 3 meetings.

  • •3-0 over 3 matches

Oportunități de pariuri

Probabilități model

Piețe de evitat

Total Games Over 21.5 @ 1.60:Predictor estimate (55%) is below implied probability (62.5%), so there is no value edge at current price.
Set Betting all:Correct-score distribution is too branchy for this matchup profile and current prices do not offer a clear, stable edge.
Total Double Faults all:No totalDoubleFaults market was available in the pre-queried odds feed for this event.
Marco Trungelliti enters with the stronger matchup history and still shows as the underdog in current pricing, which is the central tension in this market. He is 3-0 head-to-head against Daniel Merida Aguilar, including two clay wins, and his career clay body of work is much deeper than Merida's. Recent form is competitive on both sides, so this is not a one-way profile.

Formă recentă

Marco Trungelliti

7W 3L
W6-4 6-3#150 Borna GojoApr 20, 2026
L7-5 6-4#68 Hamad MedjedovicApr 13, 2026
L5-7 7-6(5) 6-1#133 Pedro Martinez PorteroApr 12, 2026
W6-4 4-6 6-4#140 Nicolai Budkov KjaerApr 11, 2026
L6-3 6-2#42 Rafael JodarApr 5, 2026
W6-4 7-6(2)#22 Luciano DarderiApr 4, 2026
W4-6 6-3 6-4#30 Corentin MoutetApr 3, 2026
W7-6(4) 6-3#74 Kamil MajchrzakApr 1, 2026
W7-6(5) 6-2#118 Henrique RochaMar 31, 2026
W7-6(8) 6-4#159 Rei SakamotoMar 30, 2026

Daniel Merida Aguilar

8W 2L
W6-3 7-5#153 Billy HarrisApr 20, 2026
L6-3 6-1#48 Ethan QuinnApr 12, 2026
W7-5 6-4#112 Francesco MaestrelliApr 11, 2026
L6-2 4-6 7-5#45 Mariano NavoneApr 5, 2026
W6-7(4) 6-3 6-1#50 Fabian MarozsanApr 4, 2026
W4-6 6-2 6-2#46 Adrian MannarinoApr 3, 2026
W4-6 7-6(7) 3-1 ret.#113 Titouan DroguetApr 3, 2026
W7-6(4) 5-7 7-5#121 Otto VirtanenMar 31, 2026
W6-2 6-2#172 Joel SchwaerzlerMar 31, 2026
W6-1 6-2#330 Saba PurtseladzeMar 30, 2026

Meciuri directe

3-0 (3 întâlniri)
W6-3 4-6 6-3Marco Trungelliti#77vDaniel Merida Aguilar#102Jun 15, 2025
W6-3 6-3Marco Trungelliti#77vDaniel Merida Aguilar#102Apr 7, 2025
W6-3 6-4Marco Trungelliti#77vDaniel Merida Aguilar#102Oct 8, 2022
Marco Trungelliti domină (3 întâlniri)3 întâlniri totale
Acoperire date (dev)

Acoperire date

Complet
StatisticiDisponibil

Apr 21, 06:18

IntelDisponibil

Apr 21, 06:20

CoteDisponibil

Apr 21, 13:03

Accidentări/Știri (din Intel)Disponibil

Apr 21, 06:20

Analiză actualizată: Apr 21, 06:25