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Jaime Faria - Lloyd Harris

MadridTerminat

Jaime Faria

#136

Lloyd Harris

#155

Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 12:55

Pe scurt

Expect a competitive, serve-influenced match with multiple close-set paths: strongest value is Over 22.5 games and Over 2.5 sets, with Harris +1.5 games / Harris Set 1 as secondary derivatives. Match-winner pricing does not show a reliable edge at current odds.

Game HandicapLloyd Harris59%+13.5pp
Total GamesOver58%+19.5pp
Total SetsOver57%+11.5pp

Semnale de context

ATP reporting describes Harris returning from back surgery after a seven-month layoff in 2025, with early retirements while rebuilding match fitness.

ATP Tour analysis describes Madrid at roughly 655m altitude, with faster ball travel than other major clay stops such as Monte Carlo and Rome.

ATP coverage in February 2026 states Harris opened the season with two Challenger title runs, including the Tenerife title, indicating positive competitive form entering spring.

Oportunități de pariuri

Probabilități model

Piețe de evitat

Match Winner Faria 1.50 / Harris 2.60:No value signal: Faria's implied 66.7% is far above model 53.0%, while Harris' 2.60 price is unsupported by predictor direction.
Set Betting 2-0 / 2-1 outcomes:No routed high/medium-confidence predictor signal for exact scoreline, so variance is too high for a defensible edge.
Set Betting 2-0 / 2-1 outcomes:Exact-score distribution is unstable without a high-confidence routed predictor signal, so price discovery is too noisy.
Jaime Faria (No. 136) vs Lloyd Harris (No. 155) projects as a tight qualifier-level matchup in Madrid rather than a clear favorite spot. Faria carries the steadier clay volume in 2026 (12-7) and more total clay wins over his career, while Harris brings superior serve metrics and enough first-strike quality to keep sets close. Recent form supports a long-match script. Faria has repeatedly played extended three-set matches with multiple tiebreak sets in his last stretch, and Harris has also shown mixed clay scorelines that include both efficient wins and longer battles.

Formă recentă

Jaime Faria

7W 3L
W6-7(9) 6-3 6-4#91 Quentin HalysApr 20, 2026
L4-6 6-3 7-6(1)#176 Roman SafiullinApr 17, 2026
W6-7(1) 6-2 6-4#193 Guy Den OudenApr 14, 2026
L6-7(5) 6-4 6-4#59 Roman Andres BurruchagaMar 29, 2026
W6-4 6-1#132 Hugo DellienMar 28, 2026
W7-6(3) 6-1#116 Emilio NavaMar 27, 2026
W6-2 3-6 6-2#804 Felipe Meligeni AlvesMar 26, 2026
W6-2 6-2— Joao Vitor Goncalves CeolinMar 24, 2026
L7-6(9) 3-6 6-3#215 Lautaro MidonMar 20, 2026
W6-1 6-2#787 Thiago CigarranMar 19, 2026

Lloyd Harris

7W 3L
W6-4 6-2#125 Mackenzie McdonaldApr 20, 2026
L6-4 6-4#138 Dusan LajovicMar 30, 2026
W6-4 6-3#225 Pierre-Hugues HerbertMar 29, 2026
L6-2 6-1#188 Marco CecchinatoMar 25, 2026
W6-3 ret.#263 Ivan GakhovMar 23, 2026
L5-7 7-6(6) 6-4#173 Jerome KymFeb 18, 2026
W7-5 7-5#240 Alejandro Moro CanasFeb 15, 2026
W6-4 7-6(5)#145 Pablo Llamas RuizFeb 14, 2026
W6-7(6) 6-4 6-4#312 Pol Martin TiffonFeb 13, 2026
W6-7(0) 6-3 6-1#271 Miguel DamasFeb 11, 2026
Acoperire date (dev)

Acoperire date

Complet
StatisticiDisponibil

Apr 21, 06:18

IntelDisponibil

Apr 21, 06:22

CoteDisponibil

Apr 21, 14:03

Accidentări/Știri (din Intel)Disponibil

Apr 21, 06:22

Analiză actualizată: Apr 21, 06:30