Înapoi la meciuriComplet
Anastasia Potapova - Sinja Kraus
MadridTerminat
Anastasia Potapova
#56
Sinja Kraus
#104
Tuesday, April 21, 2026 at 16:26
Pe scurt
Potapova is still the likelier winner on ranking and quality-of-opposition form, but current favorite prices look too short. The clearest value is Total Games Over 19.5, with model probability materially above market implied probability.
Total GamesOver58%+14.5pp
Semnale de context
Recent match patterns for both players show enough set competitiveness that Over 19.5 is priced below the modelled baseline.
- •Potapova has played 3-set matches in 3 of her last 6 matches.
- •Kraus has played 3-set matches in 3 of her last 6 wins.
- •Both players are around 45% on second-serve points won (Potapova 45.2%, Kraus 45.0%), supporting longer set dynamics.
Oportunități de pariuri
Probabilități model
Piețe de evitat
Match Winner Anastasia Potapova @ 1.35:Model win probability is 64% while implied probability is 74.1%, so backing the favorite at current price is negative EV.
Game Handicap Potapova -3.5 @ 1.60:Implied probability is 62.5% versus model estimate 56%, and Kraus' recent 3-set frequency increases spread-cover volatility.
Set Betting Potapova 2-0 @ 1.80:Implied probability 55.6% is fractionally above the model estimate 55%, leaving no actionable surface-based edge.
Anastasia Potapova enters this Madrid qualifier with the stronger baseline profile: rank 56 versus Sinja Kraus at 104, plus recent wins over higher-tier opposition such as Donna Vekic and Shuai Zhang. Kraus has put together useful match reps, but much of her recent success came against lower-ranked fields, so this is a clear class jump.
Surface context matters in Madrid. Even on clay, conditions tend to play quicker than a typical clay stop, which can shorten points and keep underdogs competitive for stretches.
Formă recentă
Anastasia Potapova
6W 4LW6-4 7-5#164 Teodora KostovicApr 20, 2026
L1-6 6-4 6-3#8 Mirra AndreevaApr 12, 2026
W6-4 6-2#66 Donna VekicApr 11, 2026
W7-6(7) 6-0#91 Lilli TaggerApr 10, 2026
W6-2 6-1#99 Tamara KorpatschApr 9, 2026
W6-4 6-4#65 Shuai ZhangApr 8, 2026
L6-7(5) 6-2 6-3#9 Jasmine PaoliniMar 6, 2026
W4-6 6-1 7-5#125 Marina StakusicMar 4, 2026
L7-6(0) 6-2#86 Emiliana ArangoFeb 23, 2026
L6-4 6-3#100 Ella SeidelFeb 13, 2026
Sinja Kraus
7W 3LW6-3 6-2#519 Martina TrevisanApr 20, 2026
L6-1 6-3#118 Maja ChwalinskaApr 19, 2026
W6-4 1-6 6-4#74 Petra MarcinkoApr 18, 2026
W6-3 6-2#112 Darja SemenistajaApr 17, 2026
W2-6 6-3 6-1#180 Whitney OsuigweApr 16, 2026
W6-4 4-6 6-3#77 Oksana SelekhmetevaApr 13, 2026
L6-3 6-3#26 Sorana CirsteaApr 7, 2026
L7-5 7-6(4)#84 Alycia ParksMar 19, 2026
W6-2 6-3#112 Darja SemenistajaMar 17, 2026
W7-6(4) 6-3#142 Lola RadivojevicMar 16, 2026
Acoperire date (dev)
Acoperire date
StatisticiDisponibil
Apr 21, 14:10
IntelDisponibil
Apr 21, 14:12
CoteDisponibil
Apr 21, 18:33
Accidentări/Știri (din Intel)Disponibil
Apr 21, 14:12
Analiză actualizată: Apr 21, 14:17