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Anastasia Potapova - Teodora Kostovic

MadridTerminat

Anastasia Potapova

#56

Teodora Kostovic

#164

Monday, April 20, 2026 at 17:25

Rezumat final

FT2-0
TerminatEvaluat

Seturi

6-4 · 7-5

Predicții

5V · 2Î · 0E

Edge-uri

3V · 0Î · 0E

Pe scurt

Potapova's 108-ranking advantage, 83% first-set conversion, and 4-0 recent straight-set wins make her a heavy favorite, but odds at 1.22 offer marginal value; Set 1 Winner at 1.25 is the cleaner edge, while 2-0 straight-sets and totals markets are slightly overpriced and should b...

Match WinnerAnastasia Potapova0.82%+0.2pp
Set 1 WinnerAnastasia Potapova0.78%+2.2pp
Set BettingPotapova 2-00.62%-2.5pp

Semnale de context

Potapova won 4 consecutive clay matches in straight sets (beat Vekic #66, Zhang #65, Korpatsch #99, Tagger #91) before losing only to world #8 Andreeva. This run anchors her 4-1 clay record in 2026 and supports first-set dominance.

Kostovic lost her last two matches — to Lamens (#123) in straight sets and Rakotomanga Rajaonah (#155) in three sets. These losses to mid-tier opponents question her readiness to compete against a top-60 player at WTA 1000 level.

Zero previous meetings. Potapova has 80 career clay wins at WTA level; Kostovic's clay wins are mostly ITF/Challenger. This WTA 1000 qualifying debut for Kostovic removes any familiarity edge and magnifies the experience gap.

Potapova retired mid-match in Brisbane 2024 with a left abdominal injury. While no 2026 recurrence is reported, clay's longer rallies at Madrid's altitude (657m) keep live fitness monitoring relevant for in-play exposure.

Oportunități de pariuri

Probabilități model

Piețe de evitat

Total Games Under 20.5 @ 1.65:Market price (60.6% implied) exceeds model confidence (55% MEDIUM). Odds demand tighter, more one-sided scorelines than historical data supports; clay-court baseline rallies and Kostovic's ability to compete in individual games creates upside risk.
Game Handicap Potapova -4.5 @ 1.60:Odds require 62.5% probability to justify the bet; model estimates only 58% (MEDIUM confidence). -4.5 pricing implies Potapova wins by 5+ games in 62.5% of scenarios, but recent form suggests margins of +4 to +9 games are variable. Better value may exist at -3.5 (1.44) if targeting lower threshold.
Tiebreak in Match Yes @ 3.80 | No @ 1.22:No predictive model provided for tiebreak likelihood. Market heavily favors 'No' (82% implied), which aligns with Potapova's dominant form, but without explicit tiebreak probability data, this is speculative.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Anastasia Potapova enters Madrid as a commanding favorite, ranked 108 places ahead of Teodora Kostovic (#56 vs #164). The Austrian has posted impressive form in 2026, going 4-1 on clay with recent victories over higher-ranked clay players like Vekic (#66) and Zhang (#65), including a career-high comeback from 3-6, 1-5 down at the Australian Open. Her first-set conversion rate sits at a strong 83%, and she's captured her last four matches in straight sets—a pattern that should prove difficult for the developmental prospect Kostovic to disrupt.

Formă recentă

Anastasia Potapova

5W 5L
L1-6 6-4 6-3#8 Mirra AndreevaApr 12, 2026
W6-4 6-2#66 Donna VekicApr 11, 2026
W7-6(7) 6-0#91 Lilli TaggerApr 10, 2026
W6-2 6-1#99 Tamara KorpatschApr 9, 2026
W6-4 6-4#65 Shuai ZhangApr 8, 2026
L6-7(5) 6-2 6-3#9 Jasmine PaoliniMar 6, 2026
W4-6 6-1 7-5#125 Marina StakusicMar 4, 2026
L7-6(0) 6-2#86 Emiliana ArangoFeb 23, 2026
L6-4 6-3#100 Ella SeidelFeb 13, 2026
L7-5 6-4#26 Sorana CirsteaFeb 5, 2026

Teodora Kostovic

5W 5L
L6-1 7-6(5)#123 Suzan LamensApr 13, 2026
L3-6 7-6(5) 6-2#155 Tiantsoa Rakotomanga RajaonahApr 11, 2026
W6-3 7-5#333 Caijsa Wilda HennemannApr 10, 2026
W6-4 6-1#74 Petra MarcinkoApr 8, 2026
W6-4 6-1#341 Mia PohankovaApr 8, 2026
L3-6 6-3 6-4#129 Alina CharaevaMar 27, 2026
W6-2 6-3#74 Petra MarcinkoMar 24, 2026
L6-2 4-6 6-4#96 Veronika ErjavecMar 12, 2026
W4-6 6-4 7-6(3)#149 Lisa PigatoMar 10, 2026
L7-6 4-6 6-3#206 Julia RieraMar 3, 2026
Acoperire date (dev)

Acoperire date

Complet
StatisticiDisponibil

Apr 20, 11:19

IntelDisponibil

Apr 20, 11:21

CoteDisponibil

Apr 20, 18:52

Accidentări/Știri (din Intel)Disponibil

Apr 20, 11:21

Analiză actualizată: Apr 20, 11:27