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Aleksandar Vukic - Pablo Llamas Ruiz

MadridTerminat

Aleksandar Vukic

#89

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

#151

Monday, April 20, 2026 at 10:31

Rezumat final

FT0-2
TerminatEvaluat

Seturi

4-6 · 2-6

Predicții

7V · 0Î · 0E

Edge-uri

1V · 1Î · 0E

Pe scurt

Llamas Ruiz (80% clay win rate, 12-3 in 2026) heavily favored over Vukic (0-3 on clay in 2026, 1-7 recent record) on Madrid red dirt; 1.30 matchWinner odds are fairly priced with minimal overlay, but set1Winner and under-games markets offer sharper edges given expected straight-s...

Match WinnerPablo Llamas Ruiz78%-1.1pp
Match WinnerAleksandar Vukic22%-6.6pp

Semnale de context

Llamas Ruiz barely hits aces and while Vukic has more power, the clay surface and likely 2-set match duration should keep the combined ace count low.

Llamas Ruiz is a clay specialist in excellent form playing at home in Spain, while Vukic is in a dire losing stretch and winless on clay in 2026. The surface and form gap strongly favor the Spaniard despite the ranking difference.

Llamas Ruiz consistently wins opening sets on clay and Vukic has been a slow starter in recent matches, making Llamas Ruiz the strong favorite to take the first set.

The combination of clay surface, Llamas Ruiz's strong return game, and Vukic's vulnerability on serve make service breaks more likely than tight sets going to tiebreaks.

Oportunități de pariuri

Probabilități model

Piețe de evitat

Match Winner Pablo Llamas Ruiz 1.30:Market implies 76.92% probability but model estimates only 68%, creating a 9-point overvalue; insufficient edge for recommended play despite directional thesis.
Match Winner Aleksandar Vukic 3.50:While technically offering ~3.4 points of value against 32% model probability, backing Vukic contradicts the strong clay form/surface specialization thesis favoring Llamas Ruiz; no HIGH confidence edge.
Set Betting / total Sets Llamas Ruiz 2-0 / Under 2.5 Sets:User-provided predictions (MEDIUM confidence, 48% and 52%) lack supporting odds data; cannot quantify edge without market prices. Betway odds only covers matchWinner—cannot validate straight-set value claim.

Pre-match flagged 8 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

**Form Disparity Dominates the Surface Battle** Aleksandar Vukic arrives in Madrid having absorbed a brutal clay-court stretch, losing 8 of his last 10 matches with a winless 0–3 record on clay in 2026. In stark contrast, Pablo Llamas Ruiz is a specialized clay operative who has thrived on the surface this year (12–3, 80% win rate) and registered eight victories in his last ten outings, including a dominant scalp over Carreno-Busta (#94) on the same red dirt. The rankings gap (Vukic at #78 vs Llamas Ruiz at #174) masks a performance canyon: Llamas Ruiz boasts a career 80.

Formă recentă

Aleksandar Vukic

2W 8L
L6-3 6-7(7) 6-4#130 Otto VirtanenApr 11, 2026
L6-2 6-4#125 Pedro Martinez PorteroApr 4, 2026
L6-2 3-6 6-1#485 Taha BaadiMar 30, 2026
L6-1 6-2#55 Rafael JodarMar 21, 2026
L6-3 7-6(5)#120 Tomas Barrios VeraMar 17, 2026
W7-6(3) 6-4#148 Billy HarrisMar 17, 2026
L7-6(6) 7-6(3)#148 Billy HarrisMar 10, 2026
L6-2 6-4#87 Dino PrizmicMar 3, 2026
W7-6(2) 7-6(2)#136 Stefano TravagliaMar 2, 2026
L6-2 6-2#130 Otto VirtanenFeb 21, 2026

Pablo Llamas Ruiz

8W 2L
L6-0 7-5#126 Henrique RochaApr 17, 2026
W7-6(2) 6-7(5) 6-4#307 Jonas ForejtekApr 16, 2026
W6-2 6-2#299 Tiago PereiraApr 14, 2026
W6-3 7-6(2)#308 Dimitar KuzmanovApr 13, 2026
W7-6(5) 6-3#298 Abedallah ShelbayhApr 12, 2026
L6-4 7-6(5)#234 Alejandro Moro CanasApr 8, 2026
W6-4 4-6 7-5#241 Frederico Ferreira SilvaApr 6, 2026
W6-4 6-2#94 Pablo Carreno-BustaMar 29, 2026
W6-4 7-5#226 Roman SafiullinMar 28, 2026
W6-1 6-2#266 Edas ButvilasMar 27, 2026
Acoperire date (dev)

Acoperire date

Complet
StatisticiDisponibil

Apr 19, 18:58

IntelDisponibil

Apr 19, 19:00

CoteDisponibil

Apr 20, 11:33

Accidentări/Știri (din Intel)Disponibil

Apr 19, 19:00

Analiză actualizată: Apr 19, 19:05