Philip Henning - David Jorda Sanchis

Rome - ItalyTerminat

Philip Henning

#300

David Jorda Sanchis

#386

Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 13:11

Pe scurt

Henning (ranked #300, 9-3 clay 2026) holds a 68% realistic win probability vs 62.5% market price (1.60 odds) due to superior form, a 2-day rest advantage over Jorda's marathon-fatigued state after yesterday's 39-game thriller, and elite serve discipline on clay; **best edge is He...

Set 1 WinnerPhilip Henning66%+3.5pp

Total GamesEven62%+8.0pp

Set BettingPhilip Henning 2-055%+11.5pp

Semnale de context

Henning ranked #300 vs Jorda Sanchis #386, with a significantly higher career win...

HIGHStatistici

Henning holds a ranking edge, better recent form, superior serve discipline, and a significant rest advantage. Jorda Sanchis's fatigue from yesterday's marathon and injury vulnerability make him the underdog.

•Henning ranked #300 vs Jorda Sanchis #386, with a significantly higher career win rate (75.4% vs 55%)
•Jorda Sanchis played an exhausting 39-game, 3-tiebreak match yesterday (lost to #603 Balshaw), raising fatigue concerns
•Henning has 2 days rest since last match and is 9-3 on clay in 2026

Henning won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches

HIGHStatistici

Henning consistently wins opening sets and his serve reliability should establish an early edge against a potentially sluggish, fatigued opponent.

•Henning won the first set in 8 of his last 10 matches
•Jorda Sanchis lost the first set in 4 of his last 6 losses
•Henning's superior serve discipline (2% DF rate vs 4.7%) gives early advantage on service games

Henning's recent wins typically feature clear breaks: 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 scorelines...

MEDIUMStatistici

With Henning's ability to break serve and Jorda Sanchis's serve vulnerability amplified by fatigue, sets are more likely to be decided by breaks than tiebreaks.

•Henning's recent wins typically feature clear breaks: 6-2, 6-3, 6-4 scorelines dominate
•A fatigued Jorda Sanchis is less likely to hold serve consistently enough to force tiebreaks
•Henning's strong break point conversion (47%) and return game suggest he'll create break opportunities

Henning won in straight sets in 7 of his last 10 matches

MEDIUMStatistici

The combination of Henning's straight-set tendency, Jorda Sanchis's low comeback rate, and significant fatigue factors point toward a 2-set match being most probable.

•Henning won in straight sets in 7 of his last 10 matches
•Jorda Sanchis's losses are predominantly in straight sets (4 of 6 recent losses)
•Jorda Sanchis's 19% comeback rate is very low, reducing 3-set probability

Oportunități de pariuri

Probabilități model

Piețe de evitat

Total Games Odd/Even 1.85:Even-money book odds (1.85 both sides) with no directional edge; the Under 21.5 prediction (58% confidence) lacks a comparable market line, and fatigue impact is too volatile to price the exact game count accurately.

Set Betting Henning 2-0 @ 2.30:Insufficient recent 2-0 win sample in Henning's record to establish fair odds; prediction confidence is MEDIUM and the 2.30 line implies 43.5% vs estimated ~52%, but limited comparable data on straight-set dominance margins makes this insufficiently defensible.

Match Winner 1.60 (Henning) / 2.20 (Jorda Sanchis):Conflicting signals: Odds price Henning at 62.5% (1/1.60), but recent loss to ranked 339 opponent on 2026-04-17 and Jorda Sanchis's historical clay dominance (216 career clay wins, 55% career WP on his strongest surface) create instability. Henning's 75% clay rate this year contradicts broader sample; market lacks clarity on fatigue vs. skill factors. Better edges exist in set structure markets.

Philip Henning enters as a clear favorite against David Jorda Sanchis in Rome's outdoor clay ATP Challenger, backed by a meaningful ranking gap (#300 vs #386), superior recent form, and a decisive rest advantage. Henning's 2026 clay record stands at a dominant 9-3 with consistent straight-set victories (6-2 6-2, 6-3 6-4 patterns), while he brings a 75.4% career win rate and elite break-point conversion (47%) to exploit Jorda Sanchis's serve vulnerabilities. The market prices Henning at 1.60 (62.5% implied), but his underlying probability sits closer to 68%—a ~5.

Formă recentă

Philip Henning

7W 3L

L6-2 6-3#339 Moise KouameApr 17, 2026

W6-3 7-6(3)#394 Marvin MoellerApr 17, 2026

W6-3 6-4#718 Nicholas David IonelApr 15, 2026

W6-2 6-2— Andrea De MarchiApr 13, 2026

L6-3 1-6 6-3#281 Florent BaxApr 9, 2026

W6-2 6-3#785 Lorenzo AngeliniApr 8, 2026

W6-3 6-3— Yannick Theodor AlexandrescouApr 7, 2026

L7-5 4-6 7-6(8)#521 Giuseppe La VelaApr 4, 2026

W6-4 6-2#718 Nicholas David IonelApr 3, 2026

W6-2 2-6 6-1#636 Giovanni OradiniApr 2, 2026

David Jorda Sanchis

5W 5L

L7-6(5) 6-7(8) 7-6(3)#603 Felix BalshawApr 18, 2026

W6-2 6-4#487 Dusan ObradovicApr 17, 2026

W6-7(5) 6-1 6-3#600 Ivan IvanovApr 16, 2026

W6-0 7-5— Alen MujakicApr 15, 2026

L6-3 6-2#126 Henrique RochaMar 29, 2026

L6-1 1-6 7-5#212 Stefanos SakellaridisMar 24, 2026

L6-3 6-3#488 Enrico Dalla ValleMar 23, 2026

W6-1 2-0 ret.#868 Niccolo CatiniMar 22, 2026

L6-1 6-2#151 Pablo Llamas RuizMar 17, 2026

W6-4 6-2#350 Dali BlanchMar 16, 2026

Acoperire date (dev)

Acoperire date

Complet

StatisticiDisponibil

Apr 18, 21:21

IntelDisponibil

Apr 18, 21:23

CoteDisponibil

Apr 19, 15:22

Accidentări/Știri (din Intel)Disponibil

Apr 18, 21:23

Analiză actualizată: Apr 18, 21:27