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Maja Chwalinska - Sinja Kraus
OeirasLive
Maja Chwalinska
#129
Sinja Kraus
#120
Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 10:20
Pe scurt
Chwalinska's dominant straight-set tournament run and significant freshness advantage over a fatigued Kraus (three three-setters vs zero) make her a clear favorite in the final.
Set 1 WinnerMaja Chwalinska0.67%+2.0pp
Game HandicapMaja Chwalinska (-4.5)0.56%+6.0pp
Game HandicapMaja Chwalinska -3.50.55%-3.8pp
Semnale de context
Chwalinska has won her last 3 matches at this tournament losing only 7 games total...
HIGHStatisticiChwalinska's dominant straight-sets run through the draw combined with her significant freshness advantage over a fatigued Kraus who has been grinding through three-setters makes her the clear favorite in this final.
- •Chwalinska has won her last 3 matches at this tournament losing only 7 games total (6-0, 6-4; 6-1, 6-0; 6-2, 6-0)
- •Kraus played 3 three-set matches this tournament vs Chwalinska's 0, creating significant fatigue differential heading into the final
- •Chwalinska beat higher-ranked opponents (Haddad Maia #69, Waltert #92) more convincingly than Kraus beat hers (Marcinko #80, Selekhmeteva #75)
Chwalinska won the first set in all 3 of her most recent matches (6-0, 6-1, 6-2)
HIGHStatisticiChwalinska has been an exceptionally fast starter this tournament, winning first sets dominantly, while Kraus has shown vulnerability early in matches and carries more physical fatigue.
- •Chwalinska won the first set in all 3 of her most recent matches (6-0, 6-1, 6-2)
- •Kraus lost the first set in 2 of her 4 tournament matches (vs Osuigwe 2-6, vs Marcinko semi was close)
- •Chwalinska's career first-set-win conversion rate is 88%
Chwalinska's last 5 matches at this tournament produced 0 tiebreaks
MEDIUMStatisticiClay surface inherently produces more breaks and fewer tiebreaks, and neither player has produced a tiebreak in this tournament, making a tiebreak-free match the most likely outcome.
- •Chwalinska's last 5 matches at this tournament produced 0 tiebreaks
- •Kraus's 4 matches this tournament also produced 0 tiebreaks
- •Chwalinska's dominant serve return game (49% return points won, 50% break point conversion) suggests she breaks rather than holds tight
Kraus has a career double fault rate of 4.7%, significantly higher than average
MEDIUMStatisticiKraus's notably high double fault rate combined with fatigue and the pressure of a final, plus Chwalinska's own moderate double fault tendency, makes exceeding 5.5 combined double faults likely.
- •Kraus has a career double fault rate of 4.7%, significantly higher than average
- •In H2H matches, Kraus committed 12 double faults across 2 matches (avg 6 per match)
- •Chwalinska committed 6 double faults across 2 H2H matches (avg 3 per match)
Oportunități de pariuri
Probabilități model
Piețe de evitat
Match Winner Maja Chwalinska 1.38:Market implied probability (72.5%) overstates Chwalinska's advantage relative to model estimate (68%); -4.5pt overpricing makes this a fade.
Total Games Under 20.5 at 1.85:Excessive volatility from H2H precedent: Kraus won their last meeting in 3 sets (27 games), which would exceed 20.5; the 54.1% implied probability leaves insufficient margin for model uncertainty at 52%.
Set Betting Chwalinska 2-0 @ 1.90 | Kraus 2-0 @ 4.75:Chwalinska's straight-set dominance this tournament is notable, but Kraus has demonstrated comebacks and resilience in recent matches (6-3 6-1 second/third set wins vs Osuigwe, Selekhmeteva). The 2-0 odds imply ~52-53% probability for Chwalinska, which overestimates conviction on a two-set sweep given H2H parity and Kraus's competitive ability in longer formats.
Maja Chwalinska enters the Oeiras final as a heavy favorite riding an exceptional run of form that has seen her lose just 2.3 games per match over three consecutive straight-set wins. Her path through the draw reads like a demolition: 6-0 6-4 over Haddad Maia, 6-1 6-0 over Waltert, and 6-2 6-0 over Montgomery. The Polish player's aggressive clay-court game has been virtually untouchable, with an 88% first-set-win conversion rate that portends another dominant opening should she maintain this intensity.
Formă recentă
Maja Chwalinska
7W 3LW6-2 6-0#416 Robin MontgomeryApr 18, 2026
W6-1 6-0#92 Simona WaltertApr 17, 2026
W6-0 6-4#69 Beatriz Haddad MaiaApr 16, 2026
W3-6 6-2 6-4#144 Kaitlin QuevedoApr 14, 2026
L6-3 6-1#126 Tamara ZidansekMar 23, 2026
L6-7(1) 6-3 7-6(7)#126 Tamara ZidansekMar 12, 2026
W6-0 6-0— Ada KumruMar 11, 2026
L2-6 6-3 7-5#86 Moyuka UchijimaMar 6, 2026
W6-2 6-0#160 Despina PapamichailMar 5, 2026
W6-1 6-3#618 Adelina LachinovaMar 3, 2026
Sinja Kraus
7W 3LW6-4 1-6 6-4#80 Petra MarcinkoApr 18, 2026
W6-3 6-2#116 Darja SemenistajaApr 17, 2026
W2-6 6-3 6-1#173 Whitney OsuigweApr 16, 2026
W6-4 4-6 6-3#75 Oksana SelekhmetevaApr 13, 2026
L6-3 6-3#26 Sorana CirsteaApr 7, 2026
L7-5 7-6(4)#95 Alycia ParksMar 19, 2026
W6-2 6-3#116 Darja SemenistajaMar 17, 2026
W7-6(4) 6-3#146 Lola RadivojevicMar 16, 2026
L7-5 6-1#106 Paula Badosa GibertMar 12, 2026
W6-2 1-6 6-4#75 Oksana SelekhmetevaMar 11, 2026
Meciuri directe
1-1 (2 întâlniri)L7-6(4) 4-6 6-3Maja Chwalinska#129vSinja Kraus#120Feb 15, 2024
W6-7(6) 6-4 6-3Maja Chwalinska#129vSinja Kraus#120Jan 27, 2024
2 întâlniri totale
Acoperire date (dev)
Acoperire date
StatisticiDisponibil
Apr 18, 18:59
IntelDisponibil
Apr 18, 19:08
CoteDisponibil
Apr 19, 11:22
Accidentări/Știri (din Intel)Disponibil
Apr 18, 19:08
Analiză actualizată: Apr 18, 19:32