Kamilla Rakhimova - Ann Li

RouenTerminat

Kamilla Rakhimova

#74

Ann Li

#36

Wednesday, April 15, 2026 at 12:09

Pe scurt

Ann Li favoured by ranking but paralysed by form (6 losses in 7 matches), while Rakhimova brings fresh indoor clay rhythm from her R1 win and independent models flag her as the value underdog at +142 despite Li's 3-1 H2H edge; surface-specific edge to Rakhimova in tiebreaks and f...

Match WinnerKamilla Rakhimova--

Semnale de context

Li's severe form slump creates value on Rakhimova

HIGHIntel

Ann Li has lost 6 of her last 7 matches in 2026, and her R1 win came against an injury-returning Kasatkina — the market at -159 likely overweights ranking over current trajectory

•Li has lost 6 of her last 7 matches across 2026
•R1 win vs Kasatkina who was returning from two-month hip injury
•Dimers model flags Rakhimova moneyline (+142) as value play
•Market prices Li at -159 despite 56% model probability

Rakhimova's tiebreak edge on indoor clay

MEDIUMStatistici

Rakhimova's 55% career tiebreak win rate vs Li's 51% is a meaningful differentiator in close sets on indoor clay where serve dominance is limited

•Rakhimova career tiebreak win rate: 55% vs Li's 51%
•2 of 4 H2H matches featured tiebreaks
•Rakhimova won R1 tiebreak 7-6(1) on this exact surface
•Both players' moderate first-serve percentages (59-60%) limit serve dominance

H2H favours Li but pre-dates form crisis

MEDIUMDirecte

Li leads H2H 3-1 with dominant return stats (47% vs 39%) but all wins came before her current slump — the 2024 demolition (6-2 6-2) may not be reproducible

•Li leads H2H 3-1 overall
•Li's H2H return points won 47% vs Rakhimova's 39%
•Last two Li wins were dominant: 6-2 6-2 (2024), 6-1 7-5 (2022)
•Li's current 2026 form is the worst stretch of her career

Competitive match structure expected

MEDIUMStatistici

H2H history shows 3 of 4 meetings went to deciding sets or tight tiebreaks, and both players' recent form includes frequent 3-setters

•H2H: 2 of 4 matches went to 3 sets
•H2H average total games: 24.5
•Rakhimova 4/10 recent matches went to 3 sets
•Li 6/10 recent matches went to 3 sets

Oportunități de pariuri

Predicții

Piețe de evitat

Total Games :No odds data available; cannot assess value without market pricing

Game Handicap :No odds data available; cannot assess value without market pricing

Total Sets :Prediction data exists (52% for 3 sets) but no market odds provided; cannot calculate edge

Ann Li enters this R16 clash as the favourite, but her current form situation is dire: six losses in her last seven matches represent a confidence crisis that undercuts her 3-1 head-to-head advantage over Rakhimova. The context of Li's R1 win here is critical — she beat Daria Kasatkina, who was returning from a two-month hip injury layoff, making that victory less impressive as a form signal. By contrast, Rakhimova earned her R16 berth by beating Elvina Kalieva on the same indoor clay surface, giving her fresh tournament-level match practice and rhythm heading into this match.

Formă recentă

Kamilla Rakhimova

6W 4L

W6-3 7-6(1)#137 Elvina KalievaApr 13, 2026

L6-2 6-4#28 Marta KostyukMar 20, 2026

W6-1 6-3#90 Solana SierraMar 19, 2026

L6-3 6-4#57 Talia GibsonMar 17, 2026

W6-7(1) 7-5 6-0#127 Leolia JeanjeanMar 16, 2026

L6-2 1-6 6-2#82 Kimberly BirrellMar 11, 2026

W5-7 6-1 6-4#119 Suzan LamensMar 9, 2026

L6-3 7-6(5)#3 Cori GauffMar 6, 2026

W6-7(6) 6-0 6-1#128 Bianca Vanessa AndreescuMar 4, 2026

W4-6 5-4 ret.#153 Maria TimofeevaMar 3, 2026

Ann Li

4W 6L

W6-7(6) 6-2 6-4#72 Daria KasatkinaApr 13, 2026

L7-5 4-6 6-3#49 Dayana YastremskaApr 7, 2026

L7-6(5) 6-4#1 Aryna SabalenkaMar 20, 2026

W6-2 2-6 6-3#82 Kimberly BirrellMar 19, 2026

L6-3 7-5#57 Talia GibsonMar 4, 2026

L3-6 7-6(7) 6-4#79 Zeynep SonmezFeb 26, 2026

L6-3 5-7 6-4#14 Linda NoskovaFeb 15, 2026

L7-6(5) 5-7 6-4#41 Elisabetta CocciarettoFeb 11, 2026

W6-3 6-4#39 Magdalena FrechFeb 10, 2026

W6-4 6-3#25 Leylah Annie FernandezFeb 8, 2026

Meciuri directe

1-3 (4 întâlniri)

L6-2 6-2Kamilla Rakhimova#74vAnn Li#36Jul 10, 2024

L6-1 7-5Kamilla Rakhimova#74vAnn Li#36Jan 7, 2022

L4-6 6-3 6-4Kamilla Rakhimova#74vAnn Li#36Oct 27, 2021

W6-7(12) 7-6(4) 6-4Kamilla Rakhimova#74vAnn Li#36Sep 24, 2020

Ann Li domină (4 întâlniri)4 întâlniri totale

Acoperire date (dev)

Acoperire date

Complet

StatisticiDisponibil

Apr 14, 08:05

IntelDisponibil

Apr 14, 08:12

CoteDisponibil

Apr 15, 14:03

Accidentări/Știri (din Intel)Disponibil

Apr 14, 08:12

Analiză actualizată: Apr 14, 08:19