Roberto Bautista-Agut - Matteo Berrettini

ATPTerminat

Roberto Bautista Agut

#85

Matteo Berrettini

#90

Tuesday, April 7, 2026 at 09:05

Rezumat final

FT0-1

TerminatEvaluat

Seturi

0-4

Predicții

3V · 4Î · 0E

Edge-uri

0V · 3Î · 0E

Pe scurt

Berrettini dominates Bautista Agut across every structural metric (H2H 4-1, serve stats 77.5% vs 69.5% FSW, 2024 clay record 93.8% vs 83.3%), while Bautista Agut limps in with late-2025 leg injury and minimal match sharpness at 37.

Total GamesOver 21.5 games62%+4.2pts

Total SetsOver 2.5 sets54%+12.3pts

Set BettingMatteo Berrettini 2-132%+5.3pts

Semnale de context

Bautista Agut persistent leg injury

HIGHMixt

The 37-year-old confirmed a persistent leg injury wiped out the final months of his 2025 season, leaving form and match sharpness uncertain entering Monte Carlo.

Berrettini Australian Open oblique withdrawal

HIGHMixt

Withdrew from AO 2026 first round with oblique strain, citing inability to compete in five-set matches. Recurring injury pattern creates mid-match retirement risk.

Oportunități de pariuri

Predicții

Piețe de evitat

Match Winner 1.33 / 3.30:Market overestimates Berrettini probability: implied 75.2% vs model estimate 62%. No edge available.

Game Handicap -4.5 / -3.5:Conflicting signals: RBA's tiebreak struggles vs Berrettini's small 2025 clay sample create unstable edges across multiple handicap levels.

Set 1 Winner 1.40:Market implies 71.4% but form/H2H support only ~58% — apparent overpricing conflicts with MEDIUM confidence and equal first-set conversion rates (86%).

Pre-match flagged 4 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Roberto Bautista Agut arrives at Monte Carlo hobbled by a late-2025 leg injury that forced him off the tour for months. At 37, his comeback is already fraught with form concerns—he enters this ATP Masters 1000 clay event with minimal match sharpness and faces an opponent who dominates him historically. Matteo Berrettini, despite withdrawing from the Australian Open with a recurring oblique strain, has shown more recent competitive activity: a solid return in Buenos Aires (defeating Coria 7-5, 7-5) and a dominant hard-court win over Bublik (6-4, 6-4) in March signal that his body is responding…

Formă recentă

Roberto Bautista Agut

4W 6L

L7-6(3) 7-6(4)#77 Alexander ShevchenkoApr 5, 2026

W6-4 6-3#102 Benjamin BonziApr 4, 2026

L6-1 1-6 6-1#114 Titouan DroguetMar 31, 2026

L6-3 6-3#14 Karen KhachanovMar 20, 2026

W7-6(3) 7-6(4)#86 James DuckworthMar 19, 2026

L6-4 7-6(5)#73 Valentin RoyerMar 12, 2026

W6-1 6-4#177 David GoffinMar 11, 2026

L3-6 6-3 6-2#25 Jack DraperMar 7, 2026

W6-4 6-7(2) 6-4#43 Fabian MarozsanMar 5, 2026

L7-6(3) 6-1#24 Cameron NorrieFeb 9, 2026

Matteo Berrettini

5W 5L

L7-6(5) 6-7(2) 6-4#61 Ignacio BuseMar 31, 2026

L7-6(5) 6-4#23 Valentin VacherotMar 22, 2026

W6-4 6-4#11 Alexander BublikMar 20, 2026

W6-4 6-2#88 Alexandre MullerMar 19, 2026

L6-3 6-4#3 Alexander ZverevMar 6, 2026

W4-6 7-5 7-5#46 Adrian MannarinoMar 4, 2026

L6-3 6-4#103 Emilio NavaFeb 24, 2026

L6-3 2-6 6-3#61 Ignacio BuseFeb 20, 2026

W3-6 6-4 6-2#128 Dusan LajovicFeb 19, 2026

W7-6(1) 7-5#123 Tomas Barrios VeraFeb 17, 2026

Meciuri directe

1-4 (5 întâlniri)

L6-3 7-5Roberto Bautista Agut#85vMatteo Berrettini#90Feb 6, 2021

L7-6(5) 6-4Roberto Bautista Agut#85vMatteo Berrettini#90Oct 10, 2019

L6-4 6-2Roberto Bautista Agut#85vMatteo Berrettini#90May 5, 2019

W6-1 6-4Roberto Bautista Agut#85vMatteo Berrettini#90Dec 31, 2018

L7-6(9) 6-4Roberto Bautista Agut#85vMatteo Berrettini#90Jul 29, 2018

Matteo Berrettini domină (5 întâlniri)5 întâlniri totale

Acoperire date (dev)

Acoperire date

Complet

StatisticiDisponibil

Apr 06, 18:16

IntelDisponibil

Apr 06, 18:18

CoteDisponibil

Apr 07, 09:13

Accidentări/Știri (din Intel)Disponibil

Apr 06, 18:18

Analiză actualizată: Apr 06, 18:25