Sebastian Baez - Stan Wawrinka

ATPTerminat

Sebastian Baez

#65

Stan Wawrinka

#104

Monday, April 6, 2026 at 11:13

Rezumat final

FT2-0

TerminatEvaluat

Seturi

7-5 · 7-5

Predicții

7V · 0Î · 0E

Edge-uri

2V · 0Î · 0E

Pe scurt

Baez dominates on clay (237-112 career record) versus a declining Wawrinka (6-8 in 2026) with a proven 1-0 H2H edge, making the clearest betting edge a straight-set victory (2-0) at 2.00 odds rather than the overpriced moneyline at 1.38.

Set 1 WinnerSebastian Baez68%-1.4pts

Set BettingSebastian Baez 2-052%+2pts

Oportunități de pariuri

Predicții

Piețe de evitat

Match Winner 1.38:Baez at 1.38 carries 72.5% implied probability, matching the model's 72% estimate almost exactly. No defensible edge after vigorish.

Total Games Over 21.5 @ 1.80:Over 21.5 at 1.80 (55.6% implied) versus model estimate 55% creates negligible edge. MEDIUM confidence and high variance indicate insufficient conviction.

Game Handicap Baez -3.5 @ 1.80:Baez -3.5 at 1.80 implies 55.6% probability against model estimate 53%, creating slight overlay. Too close to break-even with MEDIUM confidence.

Pre-match flagged 6 avoid-market areas; caution remains warranted in high-variance spots.

Sebastian Baez arrives at Monte Carlo as a dominant clay court specialist with commanding form and fitness advantages over Stan Wawrinka. Ranked 65 to Wawrinka's 104, Baez carries a stellar 2026 record of 15-7 overall with 5-3 on clay, having just competed at Bucharest days ago. More crucially, Baez boasts a career clay record of 237-112 (a 67% win rate on his preferred surface) and defeated Wawrinka 7-5, 6-4 in their only prior meeting at the United Cup in January 2026 on hard court—a surface less favorable to him, yet he prevailed decisively.

Formă recentă

Sebastian Baez

5W 5L

L6-4 6-4#114 Titouan DroguetApr 3, 2026

W6-3 6-1#122 Vilius GaubasMar 31, 2026

L6-2 6-2#111 Adam WaltonMar 20, 2026

L6-4 6-0#10 Daniil MedvedevMar 9, 2026

W6-4 6-1#13 Jiri LeheckaMar 7, 2026

W6-3 6-2#158 Chun Hsin TsengMar 5, 2026

L6-4 6-3#21 Luciano DarderiFeb 28, 2026

W7-6(2) 6-1#39 Alejandro TabiloFeb 27, 2026

W7-6(2) 1-6 7-5#109 Cristian GarinFeb 26, 2026

L7-5 6-1#143 Jaime FariaFeb 17, 2026

Stan Wawrinka

5W 5L

L2-6 6-4 7-6(2)#319 Matteo MartineauMar 24, 2026

L6-2 6-3#10 Daniil MedvedevFeb 25, 2026

W7-5 6-3#337 Benjamin HassanFeb 23, 2026

L6-4 6-2#6 Alex De MinaurFeb 12, 2026

W6-3 6-4#834 Thijs BoogaardFeb 11, 2026

L6-4 7-6(3)#7 Felix Auger AliassimeFeb 5, 2026

W7-6(3) 6-4#83 Hamad MedjedovicFeb 4, 2026

L7-6(5) 2-6 6-4 6-4#9 Taylor FritzJan 24, 2026

W4-6 6-3 3-6 7-5 7-6(3)#137 Arthur GeaJan 22, 2026

W5-7 6-3 6-4 7-6(4)#201 Laslo DjereJan 19, 2026

Meciuri directe

1-0 (1 întâlniri)

W7-5 6-4Sebastian Baez#65vStan Wawrinka#104Jan 7, 2026

1 întâlniri totale

Acoperire date (dev)

Acoperire date

Complet

StatisticiDisponibil

Apr 06, 09:31

IntelDisponibil

Apr 06, 09:33

CoteDisponibil

Apr 06, 12:47

Accidentări/Știri (din Intel)Disponibil

Apr 06, 09:33

Analiză actualizată: Apr 06, 10:12