Estrella Roja33 – 1Atletico Independiente Siguatepeque1

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Estrella Roja score at a decent rate at home while Independiente have not won any of their five away matches, so home win or draw covers the two most likely results.

• Estrella Roja home record: 1W-2D-2L, 9 goals scored and 8 conceded in 5 home games
• Independiente away record: 0W-2D-3L, 3 scored and 9 conceded in 5 away games
• League table: Estrella Roja 7th on 13 points, Independiente 10th on 11 points

BetBugs · Double ChancewonEstrella Roja or DrawEstimated chance68%

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced

The read

Both defences are leaking badly and recent matches involving these teams have usually produced at least three goals.

• Estrella Roja's 5 home games average 3.4 total goals
• Independiente's 5 away games average 2.4 total goals
• Eight of the last 12 matches involving these two sides produced three or more goals
• Estrella Roja conceded 14 goals across their last six matches

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Independiente's away scoring is very thin at three goals in five matches, making two or more goals on the road unlikely.

• Independiente have scored 3 goals in 5 away matches (0.6 per game)
• They have not scored a first-half goal in any away match this season
• They have been shut out 0-4 at Olimpia and 0-4 at home to Lobos in recent weeks
• Estrella Roja have conceded 1.6 goals per home game

BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonAtletico Independiente Siguatepeque under 1.5Estimated chance68%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced

The read

Independiente have conceded in every away game this season, and Estrella Roja score regularly at home, so the hosts should find the net.

• Independiente have no clean sheet in 5 away matches, conceding 9 goals
• They have kept just one clean sheet in 11 league matches overall
• Estrella Roja have scored 9 goals in 5 home games (1.8 per game)

BetBugs · Team to ScorewonEstrella Roja to scoreEstimated chance73%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.30

The read

Both defences concede early goals often enough that a goalless first half has been the exception in recent matches.

• A first-half goal was scored in 5 of Estrella Roja's last 6 matches
• A first-half goal was scored in 5 of Independiente's last 6 matches
• Estrella Roja concede 0.82 first-half goals per game; Independiente concede 1.09