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DarmstadtMagdeburg

Sat 31 Oct 2026, 12:0031 Oct, 12:00

7Probabilities5Priced5Edges69%Strongest

Strong leanLean

Quick Take

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Context last updated 30 Oct 2026, 22:30 · Europe/Bucharest

Darmstadt's eight points have all come at home, while Magdeburg's away form of one win, one draw and two defeats sits badly with their fifth place, and the last two meetings were drawn.

Magdeburg to avoid defeat at 1.4 does not reward the risk, and Under 3.5 goals at 1.57 asks for more than the venue splits support. Magdeburg to take under 5.5 corners at 1.73 is the one reviewed price that holds up.

Context

Reported absences on both sides and an open question about Darmstadt's shape and personnel give the team sheets real weight, but neither club has confirmed a line-up.

The current squad update names five Darmstadt absences before the Magdeburg fixture and leaves Furukawa's immediate return unresolved. Kohfeldt also left both personnel changes and the defensive shape open after the cup tie at Elversberg. That creates a tangible selection and structure question for this match, although Smit's availability supplies one attacking option.
- Luca Marseiler, Fabian Nürnberger, Merveille Papela, Carlo Sickinger and Nicolas Verkooijen are unavailable.
- Yosuke Furukawa has returned to team training, but a squad place remains uncertain.
- Milan Smit is available after his Elversberg knock.
- Florian Kohfeldt indicated that changes to the starting XI remain possible and left open whether Darmstadt will use a back three or back four.
ReportedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest
A late availability question surrounds M. Żukowski ahead of Magdeburg's away match. His absence would affect the visitors' forward options and is therefore relevant to final selection. The available information does not establish that he has been ruled out, so the situation remains a reported rather than confirmed absence.
- M. Żukowski could be absent for Magdeburg in Darmstadt.
- The concern was still unresolved on 30 October.
ReportedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest
Darmstadt's season splits cleanly by venue, so 18th place understates what they have done in front of their own crowd and overstates nothing about their away trips. Magdeburg's away return is the weaker half of their record, which makes this a closer contest than the table gap suggests. The home side's 7-5 home goal split also points to a game that stays reasonably contained.
- 2026-27 2. Bundesliga, 9 games played: Darmstadt have 2 wins, 2 draws and 5 defeats, 8 goals for and 18 against.
- Home record: 5 games, 2 wins, 2 draws, 1 defeat, 7 scored and 5 conceded.
- Away record: 4 games, 0 wins, 0 draws, 4 defeats, 1 scored and 13 conceded.
Both teams played midweek cup ties immediately before this league fixture, with Darmstadt's match taking place one day earlier. Darmstadt advanced after the 2-0 win at Elversberg, while Magdeburg's 6-1 defeat at Bayern ended its cup run. The contrasting outcomes provide current competition context, but do not by themselves establish the line-ups for Saturday.
- Darmstadt beat Elversberg 2-0 in the DFB-Pokal second round on 27 October.
- Magdeburg lost 6-1 at Bayern Munich in the DFB-Pokal on 28 October.
ConfirmedSources checked 30 Oct 2026, 22:28 · Europe/Bucharest

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 4

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChanceUncertainty band: Lean

Draw or Magdeburg

1.40fair 1.69

BetBugs 59% · Market 71.4%

−12.4ppshort

Magdeburg are the higher-placed side and only need to avoid defeat, while recent head-to-heads have been tight.

Goals Over/UnderUncertainty band: Lean

Under 3.5

1.57fair 1.61

BetBugs 62% · Market 63.7%

−1.7ppshort

Both venue splits point to a lower-scoring game than Magdeburg's overall record suggests.

Away Goals TotalUncertainty band: Strong lean

Magdeburg over 0.5

1.15fair 1.45

BetBugs 69% · Market 87%

−18.0ppshort

Magdeburg have scored regularly and Darmstadt have conceded in most home league games.

Double Chance First HalfUncertainty band: Lean

Draw or Magdeburg

1.30fair 1.64

BetBugs 61% · Market 76.9%

−15.9ppshort

Magdeburg's first-half scoring is stronger and Darmstadt have often been level or behind at the break.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thinks each outcome is.

Result2 outcomes · top 61%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.40
The read
Magdeburg are the higher-placed side and only need to avoid defeat, while recent head-to-heads have been tight.
- Magdeburg are 5th with 16 points; Darmstadt are 18th with 8.
- Magdeburg away league record: 1W 1D 2L, 5 goals for and 5 against in 4.
- Last two head-to-head meetings were 1-1 and 0-0 draws.
- Magdeburg have won 5 of 9 league games; Darmstadt 2 of 9.
BetBugs · Double ChanceDraw or MagdeburgMarket price1.40Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.30
The read
Magdeburg's first-half scoring is stronger and Darmstadt have often been level or behind at the break.
- Magdeburg average 1.08 first-half goals and 0.75 conceded; away split is 1.33 for and 0.83 against.
- Darmstadt average 0.55 first-half goals and 0.91 conceded; home split is 0.4 for and 0.6 against.
- Magdeburg led at half-time in three of their last six competitive matches.
- Darmstadt trailed at half-time in two of their last six.
BetBugs · Double Chance First HalfDraw or MagdeburgMarket price1.30Estimated chance61%

Goals3 outcomes · top 69%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.57
The read
Both venue splits point to a lower-scoring game than Magdeburg's overall record suggests.
- Darmstadt home league games average 2.4 goals (7 for, 5 against in 5).
- Magdeburg away league games average 2.5 goals (5 for, 5 against in 4).
- Last two head-to-heads produced 0-0 and 1-1.
- Magdeburg's league games average 3.56 goals, but their away average is 2.5.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderUnder 3.5Market price1.57Estimated chance62%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Magdeburg have scored regularly and Darmstadt have conceded in most home league games.
- Magdeburg scored in 5 of their last 6 competitive matches.
- Magdeburg average 1.67 goals in away matches this season.
- Darmstadt have kept one clean sheet in five home league games.
- Darmstadt conceded 5 goals in five home league games.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalMagdeburg over 0.5Market price1.15Estimated chance69%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' second-half scoring and conceding rates point to a low-scoring second period.
- Darmstadt second-half goals average 0.55 for and 0.82 against, a total of 1.37.
- Magdeburg second-half goals average 0.17 for and 1.17 against, a total of 1.33.
- Magdeburg's away second-half split is 0.33 for and 1.0 against.
BetBugs · Goals Over Under Second HalfUnder 1.5Estimated chance59%

Match stats2 outcomes · top 66%

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' matches usually generate enough on-target attempts to clear this line.
- Darmstadt matches average 8.64 shots on target in total (3.0 for, 5.64 against).
- Magdeburg matches average 10.75 shots on target in total (5.58 for, 5.17 against).
- Darmstadt's last six produced 8, 2, 8, 13, 9 and 10 shots on target.
- Magdeburg's last six produced 10, 12, 10, 12, 10 and 16.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderOver 8.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.73
The read
Magdeburg's own corner count has generally stayed below this line, especially away from home.
- Magdeburg average 4.5 corners overall and 4.33 in away matches.
- Magdeburg have taken 4 or fewer corners in four of their last six matches.
- Magdeburg's away corner average is based on six tracked away matches.
BetBugs · Away CornersMagdeburg under 5.5Market price1.73Estimated chance66%

Head-to-Head

1W · 2D · 2W

D1-11. FC MagdeburgvSV Darmstadt 98Mar 13, 20262.

D0-0SV Darmstadt 98v1. FC MagdeburgOct 19, 20252.

L4-11. FC MagdeburgvSV Darmstadt 98Mar 2, 20252.

W1-2SV Darmstadt 98v1. FC MagdeburgSep 28, 20242.

L1-0SV Darmstadt 98vFC MagdeburgMay 19, 20232.

Magdeburg: 2 clean sheets2.2 goals/game avg

League Table

2. Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
18	Darmstadt Relegation	9	2	2	5	8-18	8	DLWLW
5	Magdeburg	9	5	1	3	20-12	16	WLWDW

8pt gap between teamsDarmstadt in relegation zone

Recent Form

Darmstadt

Darmstadt

W2-0SV ElversbergOct 27DFB

D0-0FC St. PauliOct 232.

L0-4Karlsruher SCOct 182.

W3-1Energie CottbusOct 102.

W7-0San AntonioSep 30FRI

L1-5VfL WolfsburgSep 182.

W2-1Arminia BielefeldSep 112.

L0-31. FC KaiserslauternSep 52.

L0-1Hannover 96Aug 302.

W2-1FC Carl Zeiss JenaAug 23DFB

L0-1Dynamo DresdenAug 162.

D2-2Holstein KielAug 82.

D0-0PortsmouthAug 1FRI

W7-2SG Sonnenhof GrossaspachJul 25FRI

W4-1FC Astoria WalldorfJul 17FRI

Magdeburg

Magdeburg

L1-6Bayern MünchenOct 28DFB

W6-1Karlsruher SCOct 242.

L0-2Dynamo DresdenOct 182.

W3-0Hannover 96Oct 102.

D1-1SpVgg Greuther FürthSep 182.

W3-01. FC KaiserslauternSep 122.

L1-2Hertha BSCSep 62.

W2-0Holstein KielAug 302.

W4-0Bahlinger SCAug 23DFB

W3-0VfL OsnabrückAug 152.

L1-6Eintracht BraunschweigAug 82.

D1-1West HamAug 1FRI

W4-0SchöningenJul 18FRI

W4-1BSG Chemie LeipzigJul 12FRI

L0-11. FC KaiserslauternMay 172.

Squad & Injuries

Darmstadt

30 available

Attackers6

Midfielders13

Defenders8

Goalkeeper3

Magdeburg

29 available

Attackers7

Midfielders8

Defenders11

Goalkeeper3