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Predictions graded

SV Elversberg4Mainz1

HT 3–0Fri 30 Oct 2026, 19:30 Predictions graded

Predictions6–275%

Edges2–250%

PossPossession 54%–46%ShotsShots 13–10On targetOn target 6–2CornersCorners 5–11

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 29 Oct 2026, 04:08 · Europe/Bucharest

Level on 10 points, Elversberg and Mainz meet with the visitors on a perfect league away run — three wins, 10 scored, 3 conceded — against a home side with two wins from three.

Mainz to avoid defeat is the likelier outcome, but 1.38 asks for more than that case justifies, and Over 2.5 goals at 1.43 and Mainz to score two or more at 1.67 demand plenty. The 1.22 on a first-half goal is set about right, not generous: no quoted price is worth taking.

Context

Mainz have taken all nine league points on the road: 4-3 at Gladbach on 19 September, 1-0 at Schalke on 17 October and one further away win, with 10 scored and 3 conceded across those three games. Home form runs the other way, with no win in four league games at their own ground, so the venue split rather than overall form is what separates them here. Elversberg have won two of three at home, which keeps the draw firmly in play.
- Bundesliga standings, 29 October 2026: Mainz away 3 played, 3 won, 0 drawn, 0 lost, 10 goals for, 3 against; Mainz home 4 played, 0 won, 1 drawn, 3 lost, 6 for, 10 against.
- 19 September 2026: Mainz won 4-3 at Borussia Mönchengladbach.
- 17 October 2026: Mainz won 1-0 at Schalke.
- Bundesliga standings, 29 October 2026: Elversberg home 3 played, 2 won, 0 drawn, 1 lost, 8 for, 7 against.
Both teams' cup campaigns ended on 27 October, immediately before this fixture. That creates the same short turnaround from a competitive midweek match for each side. The evidence does not establish any resulting injury, rotation decision or side-specific preparation issue.
- Elversberg's 27 October cup match against Darmstadt ended in a defeat.
- Mainz exited the DFB-Pokal after their 27 October match at Bochum.
ConfirmedSources checked 29 Oct 2026, 04:06 · Europe/Bucharest
Four home matches in all competitions have averaged 4.25 goals, and the 4-3 win over Augsburg on 17 October showed how open those afternoons can get. Elversberg also lost 1-2 to Bayern at home on 13 September and 0-2 to Darmstadt there in the cup on 27 October, so the goals have not always arrived for both teams. The totals make an over-2.5 case reasonable without making it one-sided.
- Elversberg's four home competitive matches in 2026-27: 8 goals scored, 9 conceded (2.00 for and 2.25 against per match).
- 17 October 2026: Elversberg beat Augsburg 4-3 at home, leading 3-1 at half-time.
- 27 October 2026: Elversberg lost 0-2 at home to Darmstadt in the DFB-Pokal.
- 13 September 2026: Elversberg lost 1-2 at home to Bayern Munich.
Mainz won 1-0 at Elversberg in the cup on 12 August 2023, and the tie on 8 August 2021 ended 2-2. Two cup games three and five years old involve different squads and say little about current league form, though they do mean Elversberg have not beaten Mainz in a competitive match on this record. Those tighter scorelines are a useful counterweight to the goal-heavy league numbers on both sides.
- 12 August 2023, DFB-Pokal: Elversberg 0-1 Mainz.
- 8 August 2021, DFB-Pokal: Elversberg 2-2 Mainz.

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 1

Other edges · 3

The published chance does not exceed the market's implied chance.

Double ChancelostUncertainty band: Strong lean

Draw or Mainz

1.38fair 1.47

BetBugs 68% · Market 72.5%

−4.5ppshort

Mainz's perfect away league record and scoring output make them the likelier winner, so the combined draw-or-Mainz outcome is well supported.

Goals Over/UnderwonUncertainty band: Lean

Over 2.5

1.43fair 1.59

BetBugs 63% · Market 69.9%

−6.9ppshort

Both teams' home and away averages point to a high-scoring match.

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result0 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.38
The read
Mainz's perfect away league record and scoring output make them the likelier winner, so the combined draw-or-Mainz outcome is well supported.
- Mainz have won all three Bundesliga away matches this season, scoring 10 and conceding 3.
- Mainz average 3.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded across five competitive away matches.
- Elversberg have conceded in all four home league matches and lost 0-4 at RB Leipzig in their latest league game.
- Both teams are on 10 points after seven games, but Mainz's away record is much stronger than Elversberg's home record.
BetBugs · Double ChancelostDraw or MainzEstimated chance68%

Goals3 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.43
The read
Both teams' home and away averages point to a high-scoring match.
- Mainz's five competitive away matches average 4.8 total goals (3.8 for, 1.0 against).
- Elversberg's four home league matches average 4.25 total goals (2.0 for, 2.25 against).
- Mainz's recent league games include 2-3, 3-4 and 4-3, while Elversberg beat Augsburg 4-3.
- Both sides exited the cup in midweek, which can open space but also add fatigue.
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonOver 2.5Estimated chance63%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.22
The read
Both teams' first-half scoring and conceding numbers make a goal before the break likely.
- Mainz average 2.0 first-half goals scored and 0.2 conceded across five competitive away matches.
- Elversberg average 1.25 first-half goals scored and 0.75 conceded in four home league matches.
- Elversberg's home league games have produced first-half goals in all four.
- Mainz's away matches have produced first-half goals in four of five.
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance82%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Elversberg's home defence leaks and Mainz score regularly away, so both sides finding the net is a narrow lean.
- Elversberg have conceded in all four home league matches and both teams scored in three of them.
- Mainz have scored in four of five competitive away matches.
- Mainz have kept three clean sheets in five away matches, while Elversberg have scored in three of four home league games.
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonYesEstimated chance55%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.67
The read
Mainz's away scoring rate against Elversberg's leaky home defence supports at least two away goals.
- Mainz average 3.8 goals scored across five competitive away matches.
- Mainz scored at least two goals in three of their five away matches.
- Elversberg have conceded 2.25 goals per home league match and conceded in all four.
- Mainz's cup loss at Bochum was 0-2 and their league away wins include 1-0 at Schalke, showing some variance.
BetBugs · Away Goals TotallostMainz over 1.5Estimated chance58%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Elversberg's home matches generate enough corners for the combined total to clear 9.5.
- Elversberg's four home league matches average 7.25 corners for and 6.5 against.
- Mainz's five competitive away matches average 5.0 corners for and 4.4 against.
- Elversberg's cup match against Darmstadt produced 20 total corners, while Mainz's cup match at Bochum produced 11.
- The full-season overall averages are 11.8 total corners for Elversberg matches and 9.9 for Mainz matches.
BetBugs · Corners Over/UnderwonOver 9.5Estimated chance59%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
Both teams' home and away card averages and recent high-card games point to a busy referee.
- Elversberg's four home league matches average 2.5 yellow cards for and 1.75 against.
- Mainz's five competitive away matches average 2.4 yellow cards for and 2.0 against.
- Elversberg's 4-3 win over Augsburg had seven total yellow cards; Mainz's 4-3 win at Gladbach had 11.
- Both teams exited the cup in midweek, which can raise intensity but also rotation.
BetBugs · Cards Over/UnderwonOver 3.5Estimated chance57%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Slight lean · Not priced
The read
The combined shots-on-target averages sit near or below 11.5, making the under a narrow lean.
- Elversberg average 5.25 shots on target for and 5.0 against in four home league matches.
- Mainz average 7.8 shots on target for and 3.2 against in five competitive away matches.
- The combined home/away averages sit at 10.3 for Elversberg matches and 11.0 for Mainz matches, close to the line.
- Elversberg's latest league game at Leipzig had only seven shots on target in total.
BetBugs · Shots on Target Over/UnderwonUnder 11.5Estimated chance56%

Head-to-Head

0W · 1D · 1W

L0-1SV ElversbergvFSV Mainz 05Aug 12, 2023DFB

D2-2SV ElversbergvFSV Mainz 05Aug 8, 2021DFB

2.5 goals/game avg

League Table

Bundesliga 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
8	SV Elversberg	7	3	1	3	12-15	10	LWLDL
7	Mainz	7	3	1	3	16-13	10	LWLWL

Recent Form

SV Elversberg

L0-2SV Darmstadt 98Oct 27DFB

L0-4RB LeipzigOct 24BL

W4-3FC AugsburgOct 17BL

L0-1Union BerlinOct 10BL

L1-2Waldhof MannheimSep 24FRI

D0-0FC Schalke 04Sep 20BL

L1-2Bayern MünchenSep 13BL

W4-3Borussia MönchengladbachSep 5BL

W3-2Bayer LeverkusenAug 29BL

W3-1MSV DuisburgAug 22DFB

W4-1LorientAug 15FRI

D1-1MallorcaAug 8FRI

W5-2StrasbourgAug 4FRI

W1-0NEC NijmegenJul 25FRI

L1-2FC Viktoria KölnJul 17FRI

Mainz

L0-2VfL BochumOct 27DFB

L2-3Werder BremenOct 24BL

W1-0FC Schalke 04Oct 17BL

L3-4Bayer LeverkusenOct 10BL

W3-0Waldhof MannheimOct 3FRI

W4-3Borussia MönchengladbachSep 19BL

L1-3Eintracht FrankfurtSep 12BL

W5-0Hamburger SVSep 6BL

D0-0SC Paderborn 07Aug 29BL

W9-0KrieschowAug 23DFB

W2-1BournemouthAug 15FRI

W4-0Paris FCAug 8FRI

D3-3UdineseAug 1FRI

W1-0Shabab Al Ahli DubaiJul 31FRI

W3-0Holstein KielJul 25FRI

Squad & Injuries

SV Elversberg

8 out

Attackers6

Midfielders4/9

×#29

×#10

×#29

×#10

Defenders2/7

×#30

Goalkeeper2

#29 T. Zimmerschied — Ankle Injury

#10 N. Darvich — Hamstring Injury

#30 J. Gyamerah — Thigh Injury

L. Seifert — Ankle Injury

#29 T. Zimmerschied — Ankle Injury

#10 N. Darvich — Hamstring Injury

#30 J. Gyamerah — Thigh Injury

L. Seifert — Ankle Injury

Mainz

6 out

Attackers5

Midfielders4/14

×#31

×#20

×#31

×#20

Defenders6

Goalkeeper4

#31 D. Kohr — Foot Injury

Silas — Broken shinbone

#20 O. Ruoppi — Knee Injury

#31 D. Kohr — Foot Injury

Silas — Broken shinbone

#20 O. Ruoppi — Knee Injury

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Draw or Mainz

Over 2.5

Mainz over 1.5

Result0 of 1 landed

Goals3 of 4 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

SV Elversberg

Mainz

Squad & Injuries

SV Elversberg

Mainz