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Predictions graded

Arsenal Women3Benfica Women0

HT 1–0Wed 28 Oct 2026, 20:00 Predictions graded

Predictions8–0100%

Edges6–0100%

PossPossession 63%–37%ShotsShots 31–5On targetOn target 15–2CornersCorners 12–3

Quick Take

Pre-match view

Context last updated 27 Oct 2026, 22:11 · Europe/Bucharest

Arsenal's home solidity meets Benfica's unbeaten away run: six home matches without defeat and four clean sheets against a side that has won all eight away games tracked.

Arsenal should win, but 1.18 asks more than that record justifies. Three prices do offer something: under 3.5 goals at 1.95, both teams to score – No at 1.91 and Arsenal to win seven or more corners at 1.44.

Context

Arsenal's home games have been played almost entirely in the opposition half, with visitors averaging a single corner across six matches. That volume explains why the corner markets are weighted so heavily towards the home side. It also means the numbers are built on sustained pressure rather than counters, so a deep, compact Benfica block can trim both corner and shot counts.
- Six Arsenal home matches tracked between 29 April and 17 October 2026: 10.33 corners per game to 1.0 for opponents.
- Same six matches: 22.83 shots to 4.0 against, and 7.0 shots on target to 1.17.
- Four clean sheets and 0.33 goals conceded per home game in that window.
Arsenal conceded and replied in the second half, and their 27 shots produced only four on target. It is the clearest recent example of home dominance not turning into goals. Benfica's best route on this evidence is the same one: concede territory, stay compact and take the draw.
- 17 October 2026, Arsenal 1-1 Birmingham City W: Arsenal 27 shots (4 on target) to Birmingham's 5 (1 on target).
- Arsenal took 11 corners to Birmingham's 1; both goals came in the second half.
Benfica's away record is unbeaten across the eight matches with data, with five clean sheets and three goals per game. Much of that sample is Portuguese league opposition, so the scoring rate flatters them relative to a visit to Arsenal. The away goals figure needs weighing against the level of opposition rather than read as a straight forecast here.
- Eight Benfica away matches tracked from 25 January to 18 October 2026: 8 wins, 0 draws, 0 losses.
- In those eight away matches Benfica averaged 3.00 goals for and 0.375 against.
- Five clean sheets in the eight away matches.
The clubs' prior meeting was a 2–0 Arsenal win in Lisbon last season. It gives this Meadow Park fixture a direct shared competitive reference rather than a first-time pairing. The meeting predates this season and does not establish a current availability or tactical condition.
- Arsenal beat Benfica 2–0 at Estádio da Luz last season.
- Beth Mead and Alessia Russo scored in Arsenal's first match against Portuguese opposition.
ReportedSources checked 27 Oct 2026, 22:10 · Europe/BucharestArsenal vs Benfica Women previewpaininthearsenal.com · 27 Oct 2026

BetBugs edges

Compare BetBugs' chances with the market's.

Positive edges · 3

BetBugs probabilities

How likely BetBugs thought each outcome was.

Result1 of 1 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.18
The read
Arsenal's home record is unbeaten with a very tight defence, and Benfica were comprehensively outplayed by elite opposition in their only defeat.
- Arsenal at home this season: 3W 3D 0L, 0.33 goals conceded per game, 4 clean sheets in 6
- Arsenal won 2-0 at Benfica in last season's UWCL meeting
- Benfica lost 0-3 at home to Bayern Munich and were outshot 22-6 in that game
- Arsenal average 22.8 shots to 4.0 against in home matches
BetBugs · Match WinnerwonArsenal WomenEstimated chance62%

Goals4 of 4 landed

Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.95
The read
Both teams' scoring profiles point to a controlled game rather than a shootout, with Arsenal's home defence especially stingy.
- Arsenal matches average 2.73 goals (1.73 for, 1.00 against) across 15 games
- Arsenal home matches average 2.17 goals with 0.33 conceded
- Four of Arsenal's last six matches finished with three goals or fewer
- Benfica conceded only 0.73 per game across their 15-match window
BetBugs · Goals Over/UnderwonUnder 3.5Estimated chance74%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Lean · Market price 1.91
The read
Arsenal's home defensive numbers are strong enough that one side being blanked is the more likely path.
- Arsenal kept 6 clean sheets in 15 matches and 4 in 6 at home
- Benfica failed to score at home against Bayern Munich
- Arsenal conceded only 0.33 per home game this season
- Benfica scored in 14 of their 15 tracked matches
BetBugs · Both Teams to ScorewonNoEstimated chance58%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.15
The read
Both teams show regular first-half scoring, and Benfica in particular start games positively.
- Arsenal average 0.87 first-half goals for and 0.40 against across 15 matches
- Arsenal home first-half record: 0.67 scored, 0 conceded per game
- Benfica average 1.00 first-half goals for and 0.67 against across 9 matches
- Benfica scored in the first half in three of their last four tracked games
BetBugs · 1st Half GoalswonOver 0.5 goals in 1st halfEstimated chance71%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Not priced
The read
Benfica's scoring output comes largely against weaker domestic opposition, and Arsenal's home defence is the strongest test they will face.
- Arsenal concede 0.33 goals per home match with 4 clean sheets in 6
- Benfica scored 8 goals in 8 tracked away matches, but most came in the Portuguese league
- Benfica were held to a single goal at Juventus and blanked by Bayern
BetBugs · Away Goals TotalwonBenfica Women under 1.5Estimated chance66%

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Signal quality High · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.06
The read
Arsenal dominate territory at home and generate far more corners than they allow, while Benfica's corner numbers are modest even domestically.
- Arsenal average 8.25 corners to 2.42 against across 12 matches with corner data
- At home that becomes 10.33 corners to 1.0 against across 6 matches
- Benfica average 6.17 corners for and concede 3.83 in their 6 tracked matches
- Benfica lost the corner count 3-6 at Juventus
BetBugs · Corners WinnerwonArsenal Women on cornersEstimated chance77%
Signal quality Medium · Uncertainty band Strong lean · Market price 1.44
The read
Arsenal's home games are one-way traffic, so their own corner count comfortably clears this line more often than not.
- Arsenal average 10.33 corners per home match across 6 games
- They took 11 corners against Birmingham City and 10 against Køge at home
- Arsenal's opponents average only 1.0 corner per home match, indicating long spells of pressure
BetBugs · Home CornerswonArsenal Women over 6.5Estimated chance72%
Signal quality Low · Uncertainty band Lean · Not priced
The read
Arsenal's early pressure typically produces a cluster of corners before the break, with Benfica also capable of adding one or two.
- Arsenal average 5.33 first-half corners to 2.0 against, though only 3 matches carry the split
- Benfica's first-half corner games show 5.0 for and 1.0 and 2.5 against in 2 matches
- Arsenal took 6 and 7 first-half corners in their two most recent home-heavy games
BetBugs · 1st Half CornerswonOver 3.5 corners in 1st halfEstimated chance64%

Markets to Avoid

High-risk markets where price or context leaves too little cushion.

The 1.18 price requires 84.7%, above our 62.0% estimate.

Head-to-Head

1W · 0D · 0W

W0-2SL Benfica WvArsenal WOct 16, 2025UEF

2 goals/game avg

League Table

UEFA Champions League Women 2026/2027

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF-GA	Pts	Form
5	Arsenal Women Promotion - UEFA Champions League Women (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	2	1	1	0	3-2	4	DW
10	Benfica Women Promotion - UEFA Champions League Women (Play Offs: 1/8-finals)	2	1	0	1	2-4	3	LW

1pt gap between teams

Recent Form

Arsenal Women

W2-1Tottenham Hotspur WOct 24FA

D1-1Birmingham City WOct 17FA

L2-4Manchester City WOct 4FA

D2-2Paris FC WSep 30UEF

L0-1Chelsea WSep 27FA

W1-0Køge WSep 22UEF

D1-1Manchester United WSep 19FA

D0-0Crystal Palace WSep 13FA

W1-0Brighton WSep 6FA

W3-1Liverpool WMay 16FA

W1-0Everton WMay 13FA

W3-0Aston Villa WMay 9FA

D1-1Brighton WMay 6FA

L1-3Lyon WMay 2UEF

W7-0Leicester City FC WApr 29FA

Benfica Women

W4-1Sporting CP WOct 241A

W4-0Marítimo WOct 181A

L0-3Bayern Munich WSep 30UEF

W2-1Juventus WSep 22UEF

W2-0Rio Ave WSep 181A

W3-0Racing Power WSep 121A

W1-0Rio Ave WMay 101A

W3-1Sporting CP WMay 11A

W3-1Sporting Braga WApr 251A

W2-0Torreense WApr 51A

W3-1Marítimo WMar 221A

D2-2Valadares Gaia WMar 141A

W4-0Damaiense WFeb 221A

W5-1Vitoria Guimaraes WFeb 81A

W5-0Racing Power WJan 251A

Squad & Injuries

Arsenal Women

27 available

Attackers6

Midfielders8

Defenders8

Goalkeeper5

Benfica Women

30 available

Attackers10

Midfielders8

Defenders9

Goalkeeper3

Quick Take

Context

BetBugs edges

Under 3.5

No

Arsenal Women over 6.5

Arsenal Women

Arsenal Women on corners

Over 0.5 goals in 1st half

Result1 of 1 landed

Goals4 of 4 landed

Match stats3 of 3 landed

Markets to Avoid

Arsenal Women on corners

Head-to-Head

League Table

Recent Form

Arsenal Women

Benfica Women

Squad & Injuries

Arsenal Women

Benfica Women